Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Nonpoint-Source Pollutant Discharge from a Highland Agricultural Region

Assessment of groundwater quality in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India, using water evaluation indices and multivariate statistics

Groundwater is the most abundant liquid freshwater on earth. Rapid urbanization in developing nations (like India) has led to increased groundwater withdrawal, adversely affecting the physicochemical characteristics. Ranchi district, Jharkhand, is a part of the smart city mission development plan of the government of India. Hence, to ensure safe and clean drinking water, it is necessary to assess groundwater quality and devise development plans. Seventeen physicochemical properties and metal(loid)s contents were analyzed to determine the groundwater quality. Various pollution indices such as water quality index (WQI), metal evaluation index (MI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), and modified degree of contamination (mC_d) are evaluated using arithmetic weighted value index and presented in a map using Arc GIS inverse distance weighting interpolation method. Chemometric analyses such as correlation, principal component, and cluster analysis were done to identify the source and determine the pollution state. A multiple linear regression model is employed to predict the impact of heavy metal and metalloid concentration on the WQI of the region. WQI shows that groundwater quality in Khelari (100.95) and Bundu (92.52) regions are highly degraded, whereas MI and HPI suggest that Ormanjhi (MI = 53.98) and Rahe (HPI = 109.20) are highly affected by metal contamination. The mC_d suggests that Ormanjhi (97.15) has the highest degree of contamination. The contaminant sources were natural (geogenic processes) and anthropogenic (mining and industrial emissions). The high metal(loid)s concentration may soon result in groundwater quality degradation in the metal-affected regions.

Hydrological response of a paired watershed to rainfall storm events in arid region: a study in Dehgin of Hormozgan province, Iran

Influenced by global climate change, rainfall characteristics have changed in recent years, especially in arid regions. However, the actual response of the watersheds' hydrological indicators to erosive rainfalls has not been understood yet. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the changes in the watersheds' hydrological response due to the intra-rainfall indices of various events in the Dehgin paired watershed in Hormozgan, Iran, using the data collected from 2007 to 2019. To this end, first, all rainfall events which elicited the response of watersheds were identified concurrently based on the meteorological and flume data. Then, the qualitative and quantitative intra-storm variations associated with hydrological indicators (i.e., total runoff and discharge variables) were extracted for statistical analysis. The study's results revealed that (1) the increasing rates of the continuous discharge time of the control and treatment watershed's front position were about 2.25 and 4.76 times the rear position, respectively. (2) A strong linear relationship was found between total runoff volume and variables including precipitation of storm and time to storm peak in both control and treatment watersheds, with the R2 reported to be 67.7 and 63.6%, respectively. (3) It was also found that the watershed management operations reduced the variables' values including the maximum discharge, the discharge variation coefficient, continuity time of discharge, the peak of the time to discharge, the number of discharge peaks, and the total runoff volume by 3, 1.6, 2.25, 2.37, 2.42, and 3.27 times, respectively. Therefore, it could conceivably be argued that extreme rainfalls can be controlled by management practices in the watersheds.

Utilization of Pollution Indices, Hyperspectral Reflectance Indices, and Data-Driven Multivariate Modelling to Assess the Bottom Sediment Quality of Lake Qaroun, Egypt

Assessing the environmental hazard of potentially toxic elements in bottom sediments has always been based entirely on ground samples and laboratory tests. This approach is remarkably accurate, but it is slow, expensive, damaging, and spatially constrained, making it unsuitable for monitoring these parameters effectively. The main goal of the present study was to assess the quality of sediment samples collected from Lake Qaroun by using different groups of spectral reflectance indices (SRIs), integrating data-driven (Artificial Neural Networks; ANN) and multivariate analysis such as multiple linear regression (MLR) and partial least square regression (PLSR). Jetty cruises were carried out to collect sediment samples at 22 distinct sites over the entire Lake Qaroun, and subsequently 21 metals were analysed. Potential ecological risk index (RI), organic matter (OM), and pollution load index (PLI) of lake’s bottom sediments were subjected to evaluation. The results demonstrated that PLI showed that roughly 59% of lake sediments are polluted (PLI > 1), especially samples of eastern and southern sides of the lake’s central section, while 41% were unpolluted (PLI < 1), which composed samples of the western and western northern regions. The RI’s findings were that all the examined sediments pose a very high ecological risk (RI > 600). It is obvious that the three band spectral indices are more efficient in quantifying different investigated parameters. The results showed the efficiency of the three tested models to predict OM, PLI, and RI, revealing that the ANN is the best model to predict these parameters. For instance, the determination coefficient values of the ANN model of calibration datasets for predicting OM, PLI, and RI were 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999, while they were 0.960, 0.897, and 0.853, respectively, for the validation dataset. The validation dataset of the PLSR produced R2 values higher than with MLR for predicting PLI and RI. Finally, the study’s main conclusion is that combining ANN, PLSR, and MLR with proximal remote sensing could be a very effective tool for the detection of OM and pollution indices. Based on our findings, we suggest the created models are easy tools for forecasting these measured parameters.

Environmental Pollution Indices and Multivariate Modeling Approaches for Assessing the Potentially Harmful Elements in Bottom Sediments of Qaroun Lake, Egypt

This research intends to offer a scientific foundation for environmental monitoring and early warning which will aid in the environmental protection management of Qaroun Lake. Qaroun Lake is increasingly influenced by untreated wastewater discharge from many anthropogenic activities, making it vulnerable to pollution. For that, six environmental pollution indices, namely contamination factor (Cf), enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), degree of contamination (Dc), pollution load index (PLI), and potential ecological risk index (RI), were utilized to assess the bottom sediment and to determine the different geo-environmental variables affecting the lake system. Cluster analysis (CA), and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to explore the potential pollution sources of heavy metal. Moreover, the efficiency of partial least-square regression (PLSR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were tested to assess the Dc, PLI, and RI depending on the selected elements. The sediment samples were carefully collected from 16 locations of Qaroun Lake in two investigated years in 2018 and 2019. Total concentrations of Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ga, Hf, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, P, Pb, Sb, Se, Zn, and Zr were quantified using inductively coupled plasma mass spectra (ICP-MS). According to the Cf, EF, and Igeo results, As, Cd, Ga, Hf, P, Sb, Se, and Zr demonstrated significant enrichment in sediment and were derived from anthropogenic sources. According to Dc results, all collected samples were categorized under a very high degree of contamination. Further, the results of RI showed that the lake is at very high ecological risk. Meanwhile, the PLI data indicated 59% of lake was polluted and 41% had PLI < 1. The PLSR and MLR models based on studied elements presented the highest efficiency as alternative approaches to assess the Dc, PLI, and RI of sediments. For examples, the validation (Val.) models presented the best performance of these indices, with R2val = 0.948–0.989 and with model accuracy ACCv = 0.984–0.999 for PLSR, and with R2val = 0.760–0.979 and with ACCv = 0.867–0.984 for MLR. Both models for Dc, PLI, and RI showed that there was no clear overfitting or underfitting between measuring, calibrating, and validating datasets. Finally, the combinations of Cf, EF, Igeo, PLI, Dc, RI, CA, PCA, PLSR, and MLR approaches represent valuable and applicable methods for assessing the risk of potentially harmful elemental contamination in the sediment of Qaroun Lake.

Assessment of Soil Pollution Levels in North Nile Delta, by Integrating Contamination Indices, GIS, and Multivariate Modeling

The proper assessment of trace element concentrations in the north Nile Delta of Egypt is needed in order to reduce the high levels of toxic elements in contaminated soils. The objectives of this study were to assess the risks of contamination for four trace elements (nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), and boron (B)) in three different layers of the soil using the geoaccumulation index (I-geo) and pollution load index (PLI) supported by GIS, as well as to evaluate the performance of partial least-square regression (PLSR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) in estimating the PLI based on data for the four trace elements in the three different soil layers. The results show a widespread contamination of I-geo Ni, Co, Cr, and B in the three different layers of the soil. The I-geo values varied from 0 to 4.74 for Ni, 0 to 6.56 for Co, 0 to 4.11 for Cr, and 0 to 4.57 for B. According to I-geo classification, the status of Ni, Cr, and B ranged from uncontaminated/moderately contaminated to strongly/extremely contaminated. Co ranged from uncontaminated/moderately contaminated to extremely contaminated. There were no significant differences in the values of I-geo for Ni, Co, Cr, and B in the three different layers of the soil. According to the PLI classification, the majority of the samples were very highly polluted. For example, 4.76% and 95.24% of the samples were unpolluted and very highly polluted, respectively, in the surface layer of the soil profiles. Additionally, 14.29% and 85.71% of the samples were unpolluted and very highly polluted, respectively, in the subsurface layer of the soil profiles. Both calibration (Cal.) and validation (Val.) models of the PLSR and MLR showed the highest performance in predicting the PLI based on data for the four studied trace elements, as an alternative method. The validation (Val.) models performed the best in predicting the PLI, with R2 = 0.89–0.93 in the surface layer, 0.91–0.96 in the subsurface layer, 0.89–0.94 in the lowest layers, and 0.92–0.94 across the three different layers. In conclusion, the integration of the I-geo, PLI, GIS technique, and multivariate models is a valuable and applicable approach for the assessment of the risk of contamination for trace elements, and the PLSR and MLR models could be used through applying chemometric techniques to evaluate the PLI in different layers of the soil.

Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Catchment based estimation of pollutant event mean concentration (EMC) and implications for first flush assessment

The Event Mean Concentration (EMC) is considered as a key analytical parameter for assessing the quality of stormwater. The conventional estimation methods to determine EMC do not necessarily address the variability associated with the hydrologic characteristics. Accordingly, this study was conducted to identify the potential hydrologic variables that can influence EMC and thereby to create a mathematical model to determine EMC using the hydrologic variables while incorporating the catchment as an influential factor. This paper introduces an innovative approach to estimate EMC of a runoff event using a stepwise multiple linear regression model. The model incorporates hydrologic variables together with their two-way interaction terms. The catchment was included in the model as a dummy variable. This allows identifying the variability of EMC between catchments. Model can reasonably predict the EMC with an overall prediction error of 0.811. The regression coefficients of the model specify that, maximum rainfall intensity is the most influential variable having a coefficient of 1.008, followed by the average intensity with a coefficient -0.586. The interaction term of rainfall depth and the antecedent dry period indicates that for a relatively small rainfall event (<5 mm), an optimum value of antecedent dry period exists that maximises the EMC. Subsequently, EMC was employed to define the first flush runoff as an alternative approach to the conventional approaches for determining the first flush. The dynamic mean concentration (DMC_t), was introduced as a parameter for estimating the first flush using EMC. The maximum accumulated runoff volume such that, DMC_t≥EMC was defined as the first flush runoff. It was found that residential catchments generate more intense first flush compared to catchments with totally impervious surface areas and thereby a significant pollutant load is transported within a small initial fraction of the runoff.f.

Combining Water Quality Indices and Multivariate Modeling to Assess Surface Water Quality in the Northern Nile Delta, Egypt

Assessing surface water quality for drinking use in developing countries is important since water quality is a fundamental aspect of surface water management. This study aims to improve surface water quality assessments and their controlling mechanisms using the drinking water quality index (DWQI) and four pollution indices (PIs), which are supported by multivariate statistical analyses, such as principal component analysis, partial least squares regression (PLSR), and stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR). Twenty-two physicochemical parameters were analyzed using standard analytical methods for 55 surface water sites in the northern Nile Delta, Egypt. The DWQI results indicated that 33% of the tested samples represented good water, and 67% of samples indicated poor to unsuitable water for drinking use. The PI results revealed that surface water samples were strongly affected by Pb and Mn and were slightly affected by Fe and Cr. The SMLR models of the DWQI and PIs, which were based on all major ions and heavy metals, provided the best estimations with R2 = 1 for the DWQI and PIs. In conclusion, integration between the DWQI and PIs is a valuable and applicable approach for the assessment of surface water quality, and the PLSR and SMLR models can be used through applications of chemometric techniques to evaluate the DWQI and PIs.

Estimating Forest Stock Volume in Hunan Province, China, by Integrating In Situ Plot Data, Sentinel-2 Images, and Linear and Machine Learning Regression Models

The forest stock volume (FSV) is one of the key indicators in forestry resource assessments on local, regional, and national scales. To date, scaling up in situ plot-scale measurements across landscapes is still a great challenge in the estimation of FSVs. In this study, Sentinel-2 imagery, the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, three base station joint differential positioning technology (TBSJDPT), and three algorithms were used to build an FSV model for forests located in Hunan Province, southern China. The GEE cloud computing platform was used to extract the imagery variables from the Sentinel-2 imagery pixels. The TBSJDPT was put forward and used to provide high-precision positions of the sample plot data. The random forests (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and multiple linear regression (MLR) algorithms were used to estimate the FSV. For each pixel, 24 variables were extracted from the Sentinel-2 images taken in 2017 and 2018. The RF model performed the best in both the training phase (i.e., R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 35.13 m3 ha−1, n = 321) and in the test phase (i.e., R2 = 0.58, RMSE = 65.03 m3 ha−1, and n = 138). This model was followed by the SVR model (R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 65.60 m3 ha−1, n = 321 in training; R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 66.00 m3 ha−1, n = 138 in testing), which was slightly better than the MLR model (R2 = 0.38, RMSE = 75.74 m3 ha−1, and n = 321 in training; R2 = 0.49, RMSE = 70.22 m3 ha−1, and n = 138 in testing) in both the training phase and test phase. The best predictive band was Red-Edge 1 (B5), which performed well both in the machine learning methods and in the MLR method. The Blue band (B2), Green band (B3), Red band (B4), SWIR2 band (B12), and vegetation indices (TCW, NDVI_B5, and TCB) were used in the machine learning models, and only one vegetation index (MSI) was used in the MLR model. We mapped the FSV distribution in Hunan Province (3.50 × 108 m3) based on the RF model; it reached a total accuracy of 63.87% compared with the official forest report in 2017 (5.48 × 108 m3). The results from this study will help develop and improve satellite-based methods to estimate FSVs on local, regional and national scales.

Climate Variability and Climate Change Impacts on Land Surface, Hydrological Processes and Water Management

During the last several decades, Earth´s climate has undergone significant changes due to anthropogenic global warming, and feedbacks to the water cycle. Therefore, persistent efforts are required to understand the hydrological processes and to engage in efficient water management strategies under changing environmental conditions. The twenty-four contributions in this Special Issue have broadly addressed the issues across four major research areas: (1) Climate and land-use change impacts on hydrological processes, (2) hydrological trends and causality analysis faced in hydrology, (3) hydrological model simulations and predictions, and (4) reviews on water prices and climate extremes. The substantial number of international contributions to the Special Issue indicates that climate change impacts on water resources analysis attracts global attention. Here, we give an introductory summary of the research questions addressed by the papers and point the attention of readers toward how the presented studies help gaining scientific knowledge and support policy makers.

The Impact of Catchment Characteristics and Weather Conditions on Heavy Metal Concentrations in Stormwater—Data Mining Approach

The dynamics of processes affecting the quality of stormwater removed through drainage systems are highly complicated. Relatively little information is available on predicting the impact of catchment characteristics and weather conditions on stormwater heavy metal (HM). This paper reports research results concerning the concentrations of selected HM (Ni, Cu, Cr, Zn, Pb and Cd) in stormwater removed through drainage system from three catchments located in the city of Kielce, Poland. Statistical models for predicting concentrations of HM in stormwater were developed based on measurement results, with the use of artificial neural network (ANN) method (multi-layer perceptron). Analyses conducted for the study demonstrated that it is possible to use simple variables to characterise catchment and weather conditions. Simulation results showed that for Ni, Cu, Cr, Zn and Pb, the selected independent variables ensure satisfactory predictive capacities of the models (R2 > 0.78). The models offer considerable application potential in the area of development plans, and they also account for environmental aspects as stormwater and snowmelt water quality affects receiving waters.