Seasonal and Scale Effects of Anthropogenic Pressures on Water Quality and Ecological Integrity: A Study in the Sabor River Basin (NE Portugal) Using Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling

Spatial characteristics of nutrient budget on town scale in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

Accurately quantifying nutrient budget is an essential step toward sustainable nutrient management in large watersheds increasingly disturbed by human activity. A town-scale nutrient budget framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for 2010-2012 in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China (TGRA). Moran's I spatial correlation test and Geodetector spatial heterogeneity test were employed to systematically analyze the spatial characteristics of the resulting nutrient budget. The Moran's I value of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) gradually increased from input to output in the range of 0.091-0.232 and 0.102-0.484, respectively. Towns with higher TN and TP inputs were largely concentrated in the main urban area of Chongqing because of its high population density. By contrast, towns with higher TN and TP outputs were concentrated in the head of the TGRA. The Moran's I values of the TN and TP retention coefficients (R) were 0.433 and 0.524, respectively, demonstrating clear spatial consistency. Towns with a "High-high" spatial consistency pattern and positive R value were concentrated in the tail and hinterland, while those with a "Low-low" spatial consistency pattern and negative coefficient value were located mainly in the head of the TGRA. This phenomenon was mostly caused by differences in regional elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index, and soil erosion factor. The interaction effect between any two of these three factors on nutrient retention (Geodetector q-value) was greater than 60%. Therefore, future nutrient management should be based on a full understanding of regional biophysical conditions, especially in large areas. These findings provide a new perspective on fine nutrient management.

Modelling of threats that affect Cyano-HABs in an eutrophicated reservoir: First phase towards water security and environmental governance in watersheds

Cyano-HABs are proliferating around the world due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment of freshwater bodies. This study seeks to obtain a holistic vision over the various threats that affect the Cyano-HABs of Umia basin and especially of A Baxe reservoir (Galicia, NW Spain), through the method of Partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM). The A Baxe reservoirs is a fundamental source of drinking water supply to surrounding dwellings. This study identifies and quantify the variables that increase contaminant concentration and decrease ecological integrity, as well as how this scenario evolved over various hydrologic years. In this regard, the PLS-PM equations will be robust and powerful tools to predict changes in eutrophication and ecological integrity, as response to measures implemented in the basin that can improve water quality. The dependent latent variables are "Eutrophication" (chlorophyl-a, Microcystis sp.) and "Ecological Integrity" (METI Bioindicator). The independent latent variables are "SWP", which represents surface water parameters (phosphorus, nitrogen and pH) and "Climatic Conditions" (temperature, precipitation). The PLS-PM results revealed that 51.0% of "Eutrophication" is predicted by the independent variables. The connections between latent variables are quantified through path coefficients (β). The "SWP" contributes by increasing "Eutrophication" (β = 0.235), the same occurring with the "Climatic Conditions" (β = -0.672). The variables "Eutrophication" (β = -0.217) and "SWP" (β = -0.483) lower the "Ecological Integrity". On the other hand, different trophic scenarios, adapted to the temperature increase predicted for the study area, were tested, and it was found that ecological integrity would improve by 46% if the oligotrophic state were reached. Therefore, it is recommended to prevent pollution by means of water control and governance plans, as well as corrective and preventive measures, which guarantee the water security of the river basins. Despite the complex mathematics behind the PLS-PM models, their user-friendly development and application through interactive graphical interfaces make them easily transposable to other eutrophic reservoirs, widening the readership of these studies focused on multiple-geosphere assessment of environmental impacts.

A combined GIS-MCDA approach to prioritize stream water quality interventions, based on the contamination risk and intervention complexity

Water management decisions are complex ever since they are dependent on adopted politics, social objectives, environmental impacts, and economic determinants. To adequately address hydric resources issues, it is crucial to rely on scientific data and models guiding decision-makers. The present study brings a new methodology, consisting of a combined GIS-MCDA, to prioritize catchments that require environmental interventions to improve surface water quality. A Portuguese catchment, Ave River Basin, was selected to test this methodology due to the low water quality. First, it was calculated the contamination risk of each catchment, based on a GIS-MCDA using point source pressures, landscape metrics, and diffuse emissions as criteria. This analysis was compared to local data of ecological and chemical status through ANOVA and the Tukey test. The results showed the efficiency of the method since the contamination risk was lower for catchments under a good status and higher in catchments with a lower classification. In a second task, it was calculated the intervention complexity using a different GIS-MCDA. For this approach, it was chosen five criteria that condition environmental interventions, population density, slope, percentage of burned areas, Strahler order, and the number of effluent discharge sites. Both multicriteria methods were combined in a graphical analysis to rank the catchments intervention priority, subdividing the prioritization into four categories from 1st to 4th^, giving a higher preference for catchments with high contamination risk and low intervention complexity. As a result, catchments with a good status were dominantly placed under low intervention priority, and catchments with a lower ecological status were classified as a high priority, 1st and 2nd. In total, 248 catchments were spatially ranked, which is an essential finding for decision-makers, that are willing to safeguard the catchment water quality.

A case study of factors controlling water quality in two warm monomictic tropical reservoirs located in contrasting agricultural watersheds

The integration of internal (e.g., stratification) and external (e.g., pollution) factors on a comprehensive assessment of reservoir water quality determines the success of ecosystem restoration initiatives and aids watershed management. However, integrated analyses are scarcer than studies addressing factors separately. Integration is likely more efficient in studies of small well-characterized (experimental) reservoir watersheds, because the isolation of factor contributions is presumably clearer. But those studies are uncommon. This work describes the water quality of two small 5.5 m-deep reservoirs (MD-Main and VD-Voçoroca dams) located in Pindorama Experimental Center, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering the interplay between reservoir dimension, seasonal thermal stratification, chemical gradients, erosive rainfall events, presence of natural biofilters, and land uses and landscape patterns around the reservoirs and within the contributing watersheds. The monitoring of agricultural activities and water quality parameters occurred in October 2018-July 2019. A 4 °C thermal stratification occurred in October (difference between surface and bottom water temperature), which decreased until disappearance in January (VD) or April (MD). The longer stratification period of MD was justified by its larger area relative to VD (≈10×). Thermal stratification triggered hypoxia at the bottom of both reservoirs (DO ≈ 1 mg/L), more prolonged and severe in MD. Hypoxia activated Ec and TDS peaks in January likely explained by bottom-sediment nutrient releases, presumably phosphorus. The Ec peak reached 560 μS/cm in MD and 290 μS/cm in VD. The smaller VD peak was probably explained by the action of macrophytes. In March, a 240 NTU turbidity peak occurred in MD, caused by precedent erosive rainfall and the lack of vegetation protection alongside the south border. As expected, the study accomplished clear isolation of factor contributions, verified by Factor and Cluster analyses. Our results can subsidize studies on larger reservoir watersheds requiring restoration, where the isolation of factors is more challenging.

Water security and watershed management assessed through the modelling of hydrology and ecological integrity: A study in the Galicia-Costa (NW Spain)

Water management is a crucial tool for addressing the increasing uncertainties caused by climate change, biodiversity loss and the conditions of socioeconomic limits. The multiple factors affecting water resources need to be successfully managed to achieve optimal governance and thus move towards water security. This study seeks to obtain a holistic vision of the various threats that affect the ecological integrity of the basins that form the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, through the method of partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM). The data is analysed overall for the hydrological years from 2009 to 2015. The independent latent variables are "Anthropogenic" (comprising the percentage of water bodies with edges alongside artificial surfaces, the percentage connected to artificial land use patches, the edge density of artificial surfaces and population density) and "Nature" (edge density of forestry land uses, edge length of land water bodies alongside forested areas and the percentage of land occupied by the largest patch of forest). The dependent latent variables are "SWP", which represents surface water parameters (biological oxygen demand, chlorides, conductivity and dissolved iron) and "Ecological Integrity" (METI Bioindicator). The connections between latent variables are uantified through path coefficients (β). From an overall perspective, the PLS-PM results reveal that 69.0% of "SWP" is predicted by the independent variables (R² = 0.690), "Anthropogenic" contributes by increasing SWP (β = 0.471), while "Nature" decreases the concentration of SWP (β = -0.523), which indicates the polluting parameters in the water. The variables "Anthropogenic" (β = -0.351) and "SWP" (β = -0.265) lower the quality of "Ecological Integrity". This variable must be managed through soil conservation measures for the benefit of water security. This study has been able to identify and quantify the variables that increase contaminant concentration and decrease ecological integrity, providing a promising methodology that facilitates protection and correction measures to guarantee water safety.

Watersheds, Anthropogenic Activities and the Role of Adaptation to Environmental Impacts

Runoff has shaped the Earth into watersheds, and humans have appropriated many of them [...]

Current and Future Ecological Status Assessment: A New Holistic Approach for Watershed Management

The Paiva River catchment, located in Portugal, integrates the Natura 2000 network of European Union nature protection areas. Resorting to topography, climate and land-use data, a semi-distributed hydrological model (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN) was run in order to simulate the hydrological cycle of the river and its tributaries. The model was calibrated over a 25-year period and validated within a 31-year period. Its performance was verified by comparing the recorded and simulated daily flows. The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.95 and 0.76, and coefficient of determination of 0.95 and 0.82, were achieved for calibration and validation, respectively, thus showing a quite satisfactory model performance. Subsequently, the climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, as well as their extremes, and on the flowrates were also assessed for a future period (2041–2070) under two anthropogenic forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5). A procedure for selecting the most relevant metrics for assessing the ecological condition of the Paiva River was developed based upon a set of 52 invertebrate families sampled. Correspondence analyses were carried out for biological datasets (traits/metrics) with physicochemical and land use/land cover matrices separately. Out of all variables, water quality and flow and agriculture land use explained most of the variance observed. The integrated analysis undertaken in the present study is an important advance when compared to previous studies and it provides key information to stakeholders and decision-makers, particularly when planning suitable adaptation measures to cope with changing climates in the forthcoming decades.

Population dynamics of small endotherms under global change: Greater white-toothed shrews Crocidura russula in Mediterranean habitats

Small endotherms would be especially exposed to main global change drivers (habitat and climate changes) but would also be able to withstand them by adjusting population dynamics locally to changing climate- and habitat-driven food and predation conditions. We analyse the relative importance of changes in climate (mean and variability, including relevant time-lags) and habitat conditions on the abundance, age structure and growth rate of Mediterranean populations of a small endotherm, the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, along a 10-year period (2008-2017). Habitat type and season were the key factors shaping shrew population dynamics, which showed consistent peak numbers in open habitats in autumn, after the spring-summer reproductive period. Significant increases in aridity (increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall) along the study period did not explain variation in shrew numbers, although short-term variations in abundance were negatively related to relative air humidity and temperature over three last months prior to the surveys. Overall, ongoing climate change have not yet affected shrew population dynamics in its core areas of the Mediterranean region, in spite of expectations based on climate change rate in this region and small endotherm sensitivity to these changes. Reliance on open habitats with lower predation pressure would explain the resilience of shrew populations to climate change. However, current trends of land use change (land abandonment and afforestation) threaten Mediterranean open habitats, so that resilience would not last for long if these trends are not counteracted.