Flood Hazard Mapping Using the Flood and Flash-Flood Potential Index in the Buzău River Catchment, Romania

Meta-Analysis and Visualization of the Literature on Early Identification of Flash Floods

Flash flood is one of the extremely destructive natural disasters in the world. In recent years, extreme rainfall events caused by global climate change have increased, and flash flood disasters are becoming the main types of natural disasters in the world. Due to the characteristics of strong suddenness, complex disaster-causing factors, great difficulty in prediction and forecast, and the lack of historical data, it is difficult to effectively prevent and control flash flood disaster. The early identification technology of flash floods is not only the basis of flash flood disaster prediction and early warning, but also an effective means of flash flood prevention and control. The paper makes a meta-analysis and visual analysis of 475 documents collected by the Web of Science Document Platform in the past 31 years by comprehensively using Citespace, Vosviewer, Origin, etc. We systematically summarize the research progress and development trend of early identification technology of flash flood disasters from five key research subfields: (1) precipitation, (2) sediment, (3) sensitivity analysis, (4) risk assessment, (5) uncertainty analysis. In addition, we analyze and discuss the main problems encountered in the current research of several subfields and put forward some suggestions to provide references for the prevention and control of flash flood disasters.

Flash Flood Vulnerability Mapping Based on FFPI Using GIS Spatial Analysis Case Study: Valea Rea Catchment Area, Romania

The risk associated with extreme hydrological processes (flash floods, floods) is more present than ever, taking into account the global climatic changes, the expansion of inhabited areas and the changes emerging as a result of inadequate land management. Of all the hydrological risks, slope flash floods represent the processes that have the highest impact because of the high speed of their development and their place of origin, which makes them difficult to predict. This study is performed in an area susceptible to the emergence of slope flash floods, the Valea Rea catchment area, spatially located in Northwest Romania, and exposed to western circulation, which favours the development of such processes. The entire research is based on a methodology involving the integration of spatial databases, which indicate the vulnerability of the territory in the form of a weighted average equation to highlight the major impact of the most relevant factor. A number of 15 factors have been used in raster spatial databases, obtained by conversion (land use, soil type, lithology, Hydrologic Soil Group, etc.), derived from the digital elevation model (slope, aspect, TWI, etc.) or by performing spatial analysis submodels (precipitation, slope length, etc). The integration of these databases by means of the spatial analysis equation based on the weighted average led to the vulnerability of the territory to FFPI, classified on five classes from very low to very high. The final result underlines the high and very high vulnerability (43%) of the analysed territory that may have a major impact on the human communities and the territorial infrastructure. The results obtained highlight the torrential nature of the analysed catchment area, identifying several hotspots of great risk, located mainly within the built-up areas of intensely inhabited regions; a fact which involves a major risk and significant potential material damage in the territory. The model was validated by directly comparing the results obtained with locations previously affected, where the flood effects have been identified, highlighting the fact that the model may be taken into account to be applied in practice, and also to be implemented in territories that share the same features.

Modeling susceptibility to forest fires in the Central Corridor of the Atlantic Forest using the frequency ratio method

Fire is one of the main disturbances of tropical forests. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fires is of fundamental importance for the conservation of tropical forests. We used a frequency ratio model to identify those areas most susceptible to forest fires in the Central Corridor of the Atlantic Forest, from 2001 to 2019. We used data from the burned area of MODIS MCD64A1 to create the dependent variable grouped as climatic, topographic and human and landscape variables. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the model's performance. Land use and relief orientation were the most and least important variables in the model, respectively. The model showed good AUC values, ranging from 0.72 to 0.96, with an average of 0.81 for the study period. The average distribution of susceptibility classes was low (19.62 %), medium (24.45 %) and high (20.55 %). The northwestern region of the CAFC was the one that presented the greatest susceptibility to the occurrence of forest fires. The frequency ratio proved to be a good model for mapping areas susceptible to forest fires in an area of the Atlantic Forest.

Risk Type Analysis of Building on Urban Flood Damage

Climate change caused by global warming has resulted in an increase in average temperature and changes in precipitation pattern and intensity. Consequently, this has led to an increase in localized heavy rain which intensifies the uncertainty of the development of urban areas. To minimize flood damage in an urban area, this study aims to analyze the flood risk effect on buildings by ranking the risk of flood damage for each building type and sorting the long-term land use plan and the building type that requires particular consideration. To evaluate the flood risk of each building type, vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis were conducted in five regions of the Ulsan City. The vulnerability analysis includes determination of each building type by using the building elements which are sensitive to flood damage. In terms of the exposure analysis, environmental factors were applied to analyze the flood depth. The mapping based on the results from two analyses provided the basis for classifying the flood risk into five classes (green, yellowish green, yellow, orange, red). The results were provided in the urban spatial form for each building type. This analysis shows that the district near the Taehwa river is the area with the highest risk class buildings (red and orange class buildings). Notably, this area plays a pivotal functional role in administrating the Ulsan City and has a high density of buildings. This phenomenon is explained by city development which is centered around the lowland; however, given the high value of property, the potential risk is proven to be high.

Integrated Framework for Detecting the Areas Prone to Flooding Generated by Flash-Floods in Small River Catchments

In the present study, the susceptibility to flash-floods and flooding was studied across the Izvorul Dorului River basin in Romania. In the first phase, three ensemble models were used to determine the susceptibility to flash-floods. These models were generated by a combination of three statistical bivariate methods, namely frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WOE), and statistical index (SI), with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The result obtained from the application of the FAHP-WOE model had the best performance highlighted by an Area Under Curve—Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC-ROC) value of 0.837 for the training sample and another of 0.79 for the validation sample. Furthermore, the results offered by FAHP-WOE were weighted on the river network level using the flow accumulation method, through which the valleys with a medium, high, and very high torrential susceptibility were identified. Based on these valleys’ locations, the susceptibility to floods was estimated. Thus, in the first stage, a buffer zone of 200 m was delimited around the identified valleys along which the floods could occur. Once the buffer zone was established, ten flood conditioning factors were used to determine the flood susceptibility through the analytical hierarchy process model. Approximately 25% of the total delimited area had a high and very high flood susceptibility.

An Overview of Flood Risk Analysis Methods

Scientific papers present a wide range of methods of flood analysis and forecasting. Floods are a phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies to analyze their temporal and spatial development. This research aims to create an overview of flood analysis and forecasting methods. The study is based on the need to select and group papers into well-defined methodological categories. The article provides an overview of recent developments in the analysis of flood methodologies and shows current research directions based on this overview. The study was performed taking into account the information included in the Web of Science Core Collection, which brought together 1326 articles. The research concludes with a discussion on the relevance, ease of application, and usefulness of the methodologies.

Predicting Future Urban Flood Risk Using Land Change and Hydraulic Modeling in a River Watershed in the Central Province of Vietnam

Flood risk is a significant challenge for sustainable spatial planning, particularly concerning climate change and urbanization. Phrasing suitable land planning strategies requires assessing future flood risk and predicting the impact of urban sprawl. This study aims to develop an innovative approach combining land use change and hydraulic models to explore future urban flood risk, aiming to reduce it under different vulnerability and exposure scenarios. SPOT-3 and Sentinel-2 images were processed and classified to create land cover maps for 1995 and 2019, and these were used to predict the 2040 land cover using the Land Change Modeler Module of Terrset. Flood risk was computed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability using hydrodynamic modeling and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. We have compared flood risk in 1995, 2019, and 2040. Although flood risk increases with urbanization, population density, and the number of hospitals in the flood plain, especially in the coastal region, the area exposed to high and very high risks decreases due to a reduction in poverty rate. This study can provide a theoretical framework supporting climate change related to risk assessment in other metropolitan regions. Methodologically, it underlines the importance of using satellite imagery and the continuity of data in the planning-related decision-making process.

Floodplain Settlement Dynamics in the Maouri Dallol at Guéchémé, Niger: A Multidisciplinary Approach

In Sahelian Africa, rural centers have been hit by catastrophic floods for many years. In order to prevent the impact of flooding, the flood-prone areas and the settlement dynamics within them must be identified. The aim of this study is to ascertain the floodplain settlement dynamics in the Maouri valley (135 km2) in the municipality of Guéchémé, Niger. Through hydraulic modeling, the analysis identified the flood-prone areas according to three return periods. The dynamics of the settlements in these areas between 2009 and 2019 were identified through the photointerpretation of high-resolution satellite images and compared with those in the adjacent non-flood-prone areas. Spatial planning was applied to extract the main dynamics. The synergic application of these disciplines in a rural context represents a novelty in the research field. Since 2009, the results have shown a 52% increase of the built-up area and a 12% increase in the number of buildings, though the increase was higher in the flood-prone areas. The factors that transform floods into catastrophes were identified through perceptions gathered from the local communities. Three dynamics of the expansion and consolidation of buildings were observed. Specific flood risk prevention and preparation actions are proposed for each type of dynamic.