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Bisson LS, Choi K. Climate control on the channel morphodynamics of the Sittaung River, Myanmar. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7524. [PMID: 38553578 PMCID: PMC10980759 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58198-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
The spatio-temporal development of a meandering river is controlled by its channel morphodynamics. In regions of rapid channel evolution, understanding the driving factors of meander migration is crucial in forecasting the rate and extent of morphological change. Sediment supply and fluvial discharge are the primary influences on migration rate, however climate oscillations are also integral in indirectly regulating migration rate through their control of regional precipitation, as well as the monsoon season of sub-tropical Asia. Despite this, an in-depth investigation into the impact of climate oscillations on meander bend migration remains undocumented. This study presents a satellite-based analysis of multi-decadal climatic forcing on the migration rate of the Sittaung River in Myanmar, through interpretation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mode of ENSO exerts significant climatic control on the migration rate of the meandering channels of the Sittaung River, with low-to-average migration rates recorded during dry El Niño events and peak migration rates observed during wet La Niña events. However, this climatic signal may have been obscured by certain local environmental conditions. In cases where meanders faced geological basement, the basement rock inhibited their migration through extension, forcing more rapid migration by way of seaward translation. Consequently, these translating meanders developed to be more elongate, with lower curvatures. Meanders downstream of the approximate tidal limit were less downstream skewed, indicative of tidal modulation, potentially obscuring the impact of fluvially driven climate forcing. Additionally, downstream of a major confluence, the input of sediment and fluvial discharge may have been regulated by upstream anthropogenic activities such as mining and dam construction, leading to greater variability in migration rate downstream of this confluence and further obfuscation of the climate signal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke Stefan Bisson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Kyungsik Choi
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Avila-Diaz A, Torres RR, Zuluaga CF, Cerón WL, Oliveira L, Benezoli V, Rivera IA, Marengo JA, Wilson AB, Medeiros F. Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 7:99-130. [PMID: 36569783 PMCID: PMC9762667 DOI: 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Revised: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 12/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, the finer grids of Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance of High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models is evaluated using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) over the 1981-2014 period and future changes (2021-2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5, over ten regions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution in estimating extreme climate variability on a regional scale is first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, and merging products. We used three different groups based on the resolution of the model's grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg ≤ 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° ≤ sg ≤ 0.7°), and (iii) high (0.23° ≥ sg ≤ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support the posit that increasing horizontal resolution improves model performance. The ECMWF-IFS family of models appears to be a plausible choice to represent climate extremes, followed by the ensemble mean of HighResMIP in their intermediate resolution. For future climate, the projections indicate a consensus of temperature and precipitation climate extremes increase across most of the ten regions. Despite the uncertainties presented in this study, climate models have been and will continue to be an important tool for assessing risk in the face of extreme events. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alvaro Avila-Diaz
- Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales - UDCA, Bogotá, Colombia
- Natural Resources Institute, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá, MG Brazil
| | | | - Cristian Felipe Zuluaga
- Department of Agricultural Science, UNISARC - Corporación Universitaria Santa Rosa de Cabal, Santa Rosa de Cabal, Risaralda Colombia
| | - Wilmar L. Cerón
- Departamento de Geografía, Facultad de Humanidades, Universidad del Valle, Cali, 760032 Colombia
- Programa de Pós-Gradução em Clima e Ambiente, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa da Amazônia/Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil
| | - Lais Oliveira
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG Brazil
| | - Victor Benezoli
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG Brazil
| | - Irma Ayes Rivera
- Alliance Bioversity, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Tegucigalpa, Honduras
| | - Jose Antonio Marengo
- National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters - CEMADEN, São Jose dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Aaron B. Wilson
- Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH USA
- Department of Extension, College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH USA
| | - Felipe Medeiros
- Graduate Program in Climate Sciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN Brazil
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Variability of Precipitation Recycling and Moisture Sources over the Colombian Pacific Region: A Precipitationshed Approach. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13081202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
This study assessed the precipitation recycling and moisture sources in the Colombian Pacific region between 1980–2017, based on the monitoring of moisture in the atmosphere through the Eulerian Water Accounting Model-2 layer (WAM2 layer) and the delimitation of the area contributing to terrestrial and oceanic moisture in the region is performed using the “precipitationshed” approach. The results indicate a unimodal precipitation recycling ratio for the North and Central Pacific and Patía-Mira regions, with the highest percentages between March and April, reaching 30% and 34%, respectively, and the lowest between September and October (between 19% and 21%). Moreover, monthly changes in the circulation of the region promote a remarkable variability of the sources that contribute to the precipitation of the study area and the spatial dynamics of the precipitationshed. From December to April, the main contributions come from continental sources in eastern Colombia and Venezuela, the tropical North Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea, a period of high activity of the Orinoco Low-Level jet. In September, the moisture source region is located over the Pacific Ocean, where a southwesterly cross-equatorial circulation predominates, converging in western Colombia, known as the Choco Jet (CJ), decreasing the continental contribution. An intensified Caribbean Low-Level Jet inhibits moisture sources from the north between June and August, strengthening a southerly cross-equatorial flow from the Amazon River basin and the southeastern tropical Pacific. The March–April (September–October) season of higher (lower) recycling of continental precipitation is related to the weakening (strengthening) of the CJ in the first (second) half of the year, which decreases (increases) the contribution of moisture from the Pacific Ocean to the region, increasing (decreasing) the influence of land-based sources in the study area.
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Effects of Oceanic–Atmospheric Oscillations on Rivers. WATER 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/w14081245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
In this Special Issue, we invited scientists devoted to research on the impacts of the ocean and atmosphere oscillations on the climate and weather patterns, resulting in disturbances in the hydrological phenomena. In our view, the main goal has been successfully reached. This Special Issue received investigations based on measurements, modelling and experiments, related to a wide array of changes in river and lake hydrology on different scales, from local and regional to global approaches. We strongly believe that the readers of journal Water can benefit from these new findings and learn more about effects of the ocean and atmosphere on hydrology using the published papers and share the presented results with the scientific community, policymakers and stakeholders [...]
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Trend Pattern of Heavy and Intense Rainfall Events in Colombia from 1981–2018: A Trend-EOF Approach. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13020156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The Andes mountain range divides Colombia into various climatic regions over the country, as the Andean, Caribbean, Pacific, Amazon, and Orinoco regions. Given this scenario, knowing the current change in total precipitation and their extremes values are relevant. In this study, the main goal is to assess the spatio-temporal trends of heavy and intense rainfall at a seasonal scale during the last 38 years (1981–2018) using the trend empirical orthogonal function (TEOF). An increase in maximum precipitation during five consecutive days (RX5day), Simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the number of days with precipitation above 20 mm (R20mm) and 30 mm (R30mm) during December–February and March–May was observed in most of the Colombian territory, except for the Amazon region for RX5day. A decrease in total rainfall in June–August was observed in the Andean, the Caribbean, and southern Pacific regions, while, in the northern Pacific, it increased, consistent with the trend patterns of RX5day, SDII, and R20mm. During September–November, there was a reduction in rainfall in the Amazon region and the South Pacific, and an increase in RX5day, SDII, R20mm, and R30mm in the Andean, the Caribbean, and North Pacific regions. The TEOF showed more pronounced spatial trend patterns than those obtained with the traditional Mann–Kendall test. The findings offer a better understanding of the climate extremes impacts in tropical latitudes and help planners to implement measures against the future effects of climate change.
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Possible Linkages of Hydrological Variables to Ocean–Atmosphere Signals and Sunspot Activity in the Upstream Yangtze River Basin. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12101361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Profiling the hydrological response of watershed precipitation and streamflow to large-scale circulation patterns and astronomical factors provides novel information into the scientific management and prediction of regional water resources. Possible contacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), sunspot activity to precipitation and streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB) were investigated in this work. Monthly precipitation and streamflow were utilized as well as contemporaneous same-scale teleconnections time series spanning a total of 70 years from 1951 to 2020 in precipitation and 121 years from 1900 to 2020 in streamflow. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied so as to characterize the dominant variability patterns over UYRB precipitation time series, with the temporal variability of first two modes explaining more than 80% of total variance. Long-term evolutionary pattern and periodic variation characteristics of precipitation and streamflow are explored by applying continuous wavelet transform (CWT), cross-wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC), analyzing multi-scale correlation between hydrological variables and teleconnections in the time-frequency domain. The results manifest that ENSO exhibits multiple interannual period resonance with precipitation and streamflow, while correlations are unstable in time and phase. PDO and sunspot effects on precipitation and streamflow at interannual scales vary with time-frequency domains, yet significant differences are exhibited in their effects at interdecadal scales. PDO exhibits a steady negative correlation with streamflow on interdecadal scales of approximately 10 years, while the effect of sunspot on streamflow exhibits extremely steady positive correlation on longer interdecadal scales of approximately 36 years. Analysis reveals that both PDO and sunspot have significantly stronger effects on streamflow variability than precipitation, which might be associated with the high spatiotemporal variability of precipitation.
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Reboita MS, Ambrizzi T, Crespo NM, Dutra LMM, Ferreira GWDS, Rehbein A, Drumond A, da Rocha RP, Souza CAD. Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America climate. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2021; 1504:116-153. [PMID: 33914367 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2020] [Revised: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 02/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Oceanic heat sources disturb the atmosphere, which, to come back to its initial state, disperses waves. These waves affect the climate in remote regions, characterizing the teleconnection patterns. In this study, we describe eight teleconnection patterns that affect South America climate: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD), the South Atlantic Dipole (SAD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Precipitation and winds at 850-hPa anomalies, considering these teleconnection patterns in ENSO neutral periods, are also presented. Overall, southeastern South America and the north sector of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil are the most affected areas by the teleconnection patterns. In general, there is a precipitation dipole pattern between these regions during each teleconnection pattern.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tércio Ambrizzi
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Natália Machado Crespo
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Lívia Márcia Mosso Dutra
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | | | - Amanda Rehbein
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Anita Drumond
- Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, SP, Brazil
| | - Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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Streamflow Variability in Colombian Pacific Basins and Their Teleconnections with Climate Indices. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w12020526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Oceanic-atmospheric phenomena of different time scales concurrently might affect the streamflow in several basins around the world. The Atrato River Basin (ARB) and Patía River Basin (PRB) of the Colombian Pacific region are examples of such basins. Nevertheless, the relations between the streamflows in the ARB and PRB and the oceanic-atmospheric factors have not been examined considering different temporal scales. Hence, this article studies the relations of the climate indices and the variability of the streamflows in the ARB and PRB at interannual and decadal timescales. To this, the streamflow variability modes were obtained from the principal component analysis (PCA); furthermore, their linear dependence with indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation (PRP), the Choco low-level jet (CJ), and other indices were quantified through (a) Pearson and Kendall’s tau correlations, and (b) wavelet transform. The PCA presented a single significant mode for each basin, with an explained variance of around 80%. The correlation analyses between the PC1s of the ARB and PRB, and the climate indices showed significant positive (negative) high correlations with PRP, CJ, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (ENSO indices). The wavelet coherence analysis showed significant coherencies between ENSO and ARB: at interannual (2–7 years) and decadal scale (8–14), preferably with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the east and west Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). For PRB with the SST in the central and western regions of the TPO in the interannual (4–8 years) and decadal (8–14 years) scales, the decreases (increases) in streamflow precede the El Niño (La Niña) events. These results indicate multiscale relations between the basins’ streamflow and climate phenomena not documented in previous works, relevant to forecast the extreme flow events in the Colombian Pacific rivers and for planning and implementing strategies for the sustainable use of water resources in the basins studied.
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