Groundwater Storage Changes in the Major North African Transboundary Aquifer Systems during the GRACE Era (2003–2016)

Reconstruction of GRACE Mass Change Time Series Using a Bayesian Framework

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its Follow On (GRACE (-FO)) missions have resulted in a paradigm shift in understanding the temporal changes in the Earth's gravity field and its drivers. To provide continuous observations to the user community, missing monthly solutions within and between GRACE (-FO) missions (33 solutions) need to be imputed. Here, we modeled GRACE (-FO) data (196 solutions) between 04/2002-04/2021 to infer missing solutions and derive uncertainties in the existing and missing observations using Bayesian inference. First, we parametrized the GRACE (-FO) time series using an additive generative model comprising long-term variability (secular trend + interannual to decadal variations), annual, and semi-annual cycles. Informative priors for each component were used and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was applied to generate 2,000 samples for each component to quantify the posterior distributions. Second, we reconstructed the new data (229 solutions) by joining medians of posterior distributions of all components and adding back the residuals to secure the variability of the original data. Results show that the reconstructed solutions explain 99% of the variability of the original data at the basin scale and 78% at the one-degree grid scale. The results outperform other reconstructed data in terms of accuracy relative to land surface modeling. Our data-driven approach relies only on GRACE (-FO) observations and provides a total uncertainty over GRACE (-FO) data from the data-generation process perspective. Moreover, the predictive posterior distribution can be potentially used for "nowcasting" in GRACE (-FO) near-real-time applications (e.g., data assimilations), which minimize the current mission data latency (40-60 days).

Quantifying Water Consumption through the Satellite Estimation of Land Use/Land Cover and Groundwater Storage Changes in a Hyper-Arid Region of Egypt

One of the areas that show the most visible effects of human-induced land alterations is also the world’s most essential resource: water. Decision-makers in arid regions face considerable difficulties in providing and maintaining sustainable water resource management. However, developing appropriate and straightforward approaches for quantifying water use in arid/hyper-arid regions is still a formidable challenge. Meanwhile, a better knowledge of the effects of land use land cover (LULC) changes on natural resources and environmental systems is required. The purpose of this study was to quantify the water consumption in a hyper-arid region (New Valley, Egypt) using two different approaches—LULC based on optical remote sensing data and groundwater storage changes based on Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data—and to compare and contrast the quantitative results of the two approaches. The LULC of the study area was constructed from 1986 to 2021 to identify the land cover changes and investigate the primary water consumption patterns. The analysis of groundwater storage changes utilized two GRACE mascon solutions from 2002 to 2021 in New Valley. The results showed an increase in agricultural areas in New Valley’s oases. They also showed an increased in irrigation water usage and a continuous decrease in the groundwater storage of New Valley. The overall water usage in New Valley for domestic and irrigation was calculated as 18.62 km3 (0.93 km3/yr) based on the LULC estimates. Moreover, the groundwater storage changes of New Valley were extracted using GRACE and calculated to be 19.36 ± 7.96 km3 (0.97 ± 0.39 km3/yr). The results indicated that the water use calculated from LULC was consistent with the depletion in groundwater storage calculated by applying GRACE. This study provides an essential reference for regional sustainability and water resource management in arid/hyper-arid regions.

Evaluation of Groundwater Storage Depletion Using GRACE/GRACE Follow-On Data with Land Surface Models and Its Driving Factors in Haihe River Basin, China

Groundwater storage (GWS) in the Haihe River Basin (HRB), which is one of the most densely populated and largest agricultural areas in China, is of great importance for the ecosystem environment and socio-economic development. In recent years, large-scale overexploitation of groundwater in HRB has made it one of the global hotspots of GWS depletion. In this study, monthly GWS variations in HRB from 2003 to 2020 were estimated using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data in combination with three land surface models (LSMs) from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results show the following: (1) HRB suffered extensive GWS depletion from 2003 to 2020, which has been aggravated since 2014, with a mean rate of 1.88 cm·yr−1, which is equivalent to a volume of 6 billion m3·yr−1. The GWS depletion is more serious in the plain zone (−2.36 cm·yr−1) than in the mountainous zone (−1.63 cm·yr−1). (2) Climate changes are excluded from the reasons for GWS depletion due to annual precipitation and evaporation being close to normal throughout the period. In addition, GWS changes show a low correlation with meteorological factors. (3) The consumption of groundwater for irrigation and land use/cover changes have been confirmed to be the dominant factors for GWS depletion in HRB. (4) The effects of inter-basin water transfer projects cannot be obviously observed using the GRACE and GRACE-FO; more inter-basin water transfers are needed for recovering the GWS in HRB. Therefore, it is imperative to control groundwater exploitation and develop a more economical agricultural irrigation structure for the sustainability of groundwater resources in HRB.

Novel approach for predicting groundwater storage loss using machine learning

Comprehensive national estimates of groundwater storage loss (GSL) are needed for better management of natural resources. This is especially important for data scarce regions with high pressure on groundwater resources. In Iran, almost all major groundwater aquifers are in a critical state. For this purpose, we introduce a novel approach using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). The methodology involves water budget variables that are easily accessible such as aquifer area, storage coefficient, groundwater use, return flow, discharge, and recharge. The GSL was calculated for 178 major aquifers of Iran using different combinations of input data. Out of 11 investigated variables, agricultural water consumption, aquifer area, river infiltration, and artificial drainage were highly associated to GSL with a correlation of 0.84, 0.79, 0.70, and 0.69, respectively. For the final model, 9 out of the totally 11 investigated variables were chosen for prediction of GSL. Results showed that ML methods are efficient in discriminating between different input variables for reliable GSL estimation. The Harris Hawks Optimization Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (HHO-ANFIS) and the Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) gave best results. Overall, however, the HHO-ANFIS was most efficient to predict GSL. AI and ML methods can thus, save time and costs for these complex calculations and point at the most efficient data inputs. The suggested methodology is especially suited for data-scarce regions with a great deal of uncertainty and a lack of reliable observations of groundwater levels and pumping.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Drought on Surface Water Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Remote Sensing: A Review

Climate variability and recurrent droughts have caused remarkable strain on water resources in most regions across the globe, with the arid and semi-arid areas being the hardest hit. The impacts have been notable on surface water resources, which are already under threat from massive abstractions due to increased demand, as well as poor conservation and unsustainable land management practices. Drought and climate variability, as well as their associated impacts on water resources, have gained increased attention in recent decades as nations seek to enhance mitigation and adaptation mechanisms. Although the use of satellite technologies has, of late, gained prominence in generating timely and spatially explicit information on drought and climate variability impacts across different regions, they are somewhat hampered by difficulties in detecting drought evolution due to its complex nature, varying scales, the magnitude of its occurrence, and inherent data gaps. Currently, a number of studies have been conducted to monitor and assess the impacts of climate variability and droughts on water resources in sub-Saharan Africa using different remotely sensed and in-situ datasets. This study therefore provides a detailed overview of the progress made in tracking droughts using remote sensing, including its relevance in monitoring climate variability and hydrological drought impacts on surface water resources in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper further discusses traditional and remote sensing methods of monitoring climate variability, hydrological drought, and water resources, tracking their application and key challenges, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, characteristics and limitations of various remote sensors, as well as drought and surface water indices, namely, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI+5), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI+5), Automated Water Extraction Index (shadow) (AWEIsh), and Automated Water Extraction Index (non-shadow) (AWEInsh), and their relevance in climate variability and drought monitoring are discussed. Additionally, key scientific research strides and knowledge gaps for further investigations are highlighted. While progress has been made in advancing the application of remote sensing in water resources, this review indicates the need for further studies on assessing drought and climate variability impacts on water resources, especially in the context of climate change and increased water demand. The results from this study suggests that Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite data are likely to be best suited to monitor climate variability, hydrological drought, and surface water bodies, due to their availability at relatively low cost, impressive spectral, spatial, and temporal characteristics. The most effective drought and water indices are SPI, PDSI, NDVI, VCI, NDWI, MNDWI, MNDWI+5, AWEIsh, and AWEInsh. Overall, the findings of this study emphasize the increasing role and potential of remote sensing in generating spatially explicit information on drought and climate variability impacts on surface water resources. However, there is a need for future studies to consider spatial data integration techniques, radar data, precipitation, cloud computing, and machine learning or artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to improve on understanding climate and drought impacts on water resources across various scales.