Using 2D HEC-RAS Modeling and Embankment Dam Break Scenario for Assessing the Flood Control Capacity of a Multi-Reservoir System (NE Romania)

Novel approach to the derivation of dam breach parameters in 2D hydrodynamic modeling of earthquake induced dam failures

Current methods of dam breach analyses adopt a deterministic approach. Applying these methods to Concrete Faced Rockfill Dams (CFRD) is fraught with huge levels of uncertainty, especially in the context of natural hazards. The frequency and magnitude of rainfall and earthquakes are higher in today's world. In the literature, the complete collapse of dams is modelled on dam breach parameters that define the dam break outflow but are not related to the return periods of natural hazards. As more new dams are constructed to control the floods in intra-plate seismic regions, this study presents a novel approach to the derivation of generalized dam break parameters for CFRD based on the structural analysis of Finite Element Model (FEM) simulations for peak ground accelerations corresponding to 475 and 2475 year return periods. Furthermore, the occurrence of rainfall and earthquake for different return periods are modelled using 2D hydrodynamic simulations. Results show the significance of generalized dam breach parameters for planning and managing CFRDs during earthquakes. The study emphasizes the utilization of structural analysis outputs for the hydraulic modeling of dam breaks, which will result in more specific and accurate dam break parameters. Additionally, the study has shown that the flood risk and the severity will increase with the intensity of earthquake and rainfall magnitudes. Disaster mitigation strategies can be optimized by considering the integrated occurrence of rainfall and earthquakes based on the probability of occurrence, demonstrated using a case-study dam. Another significant outcome of the study is the effect of soil saturation condition during a dam break, which reveals that areas within 40 km of the dam breach location might be worst affected.

Impact of river flow modification on wetland hydrological and morphological characters

A good number of researchers investigated the impact of flow modification on hydrological, ecological, and geomorphological conditions in a river. A few works also focused on hydrological modification on wetland with some parameters but as far the knowledge is concerned, linking river flow modification to wetland hydrological and morphological transformation following an integrated modeling approach is often lacking. The current study aimed to explore the degree of hydrological alteration in the river and its effect on downstream riparian wetlands by adopting advanced modeling approaches. After damming, maximally 67 to 95% hydrological alteration was recorded for maximum, minimum, and average discharges. Wavelet transformation analysis figured out a strong power spectrum after 2012 (damming year). Due to attenuation of flow, the active inundation area was reduced by 66.2%. After damming, 524.03 km2 (48.9% of total pre-dam wetland) was completely obliterated. Hydrological strength (HS) modeling also reported areas under high HS declined by 14% after post-dam condition. Wetland hydrological security state (WSS) and HS matrix, a new approach, are used to explore wetland characteristics of inundation connectivity and hydrological security state. WSS was defined based on lateral hydrological connectivity. HS under critical and stress WWS zones deteriorated in the post-dam period. The morphological transformation was also well recognized showing an increase in area under the patch, edge, and a decrease in the area under the large core area. All these findings established a clear linkage between river flow modification and wetland transformation, and they provided a good clue for managing wetlands.

Earth Dam Design for Drinking Water Management and Flood Control: A Case Study

Water management for natural channels is a frequent challenge due to the inefficient usage of water resources. The 2030 Agenda of the United Nations (SDG 6 of sustainable development) focuses its attention on water and sanitation. The Sara Guerrero site, located in the Mocache municipality in Los Ríos province (Ecuador), has issues related to access to drinking water, flood control, and crop irrigation that affect 4300 people and 24,000 hectares. The river overflows throughout the rainy season (late December to early May), whereas there is a noticeable water shortage during the dry season. This project aims to design a multiple-use earth dam on the Vinces River, simulating the resulting flow in extreme cases due to its possible failure. Such a study implies the development of a contingency plan for the preservation of life. It considers (i) dam breach analysis and design, and (ii) hydraulic model development using the ArcMap and HEC-RAS software packages. The design includes a waterproofing system that controls possible leaks and a cymbal spillway, mainly for raw water collection. The generated model showed that the shorter the failure time, the higher the maximum output flow. Modelling revealed that four towns would be affected for a maximum of 31 h in extreme cases. This approach offers comprehensive management for this community with regards to the earth dam and flood control.

The 21st August 2020 Flood in Douala (Cameroon): A Major Urban Flood Investigated with 2D HEC-RAS Modeling

A major flood event occurred on 21 August 2020 in the densely populated Makèpè Missokè neighborhood in the city of Douala (Cameroon, Africa). Nearly 2210 buildings and 12,376 victims spread over 82 hectares were affected. A 2D HEC-RAS model is applied to simulate and characterize this event. A cross analysis of flood depth and flow velocity is used to classify the flood risk and identify areas exposed from low to high hazard. The simulations provide detailed information on the flood characteristics (extent, depth, velocity, arrival time, and duration). The simulated maximum water surface profiles are consistent with the floods marks with differences ranging from 0.02 m to 0.44 m, indicating a good agreement between the observed and simulated water levels at the peak flow (NSE = 0.94, Erel = 0.92, RMSE = 0.21 m). The maximum inundation level is 4.48 m and the flow velocity is globally low at less than 1 m/s. The average flood arrival time and duration are 5 h and 26 h, respectively, for a threshold height of 0.5 m. These results indicate a fast mobilization of the major river channel for the evacuation of this flood. The level of accuracy of the developed model of the 21 August 2020 flood event is appropriate for flood hazard assessment in the city of Douala and is designed to find operational application in future events.

Modeling and Risk Analysis of Dam-Break Flooding in a Semi-Arid Montane Watershed: A Case Study of the Yabous Dam, Northeastern Algeria

The risk related to embankment dam breaches needs to be evaluated in order to prepare emergency action plans. The physical and hydrodynamic parameters of the flood wave generated from the dam failure event correspond to various breach parameters, such as width, slope, and formation time. This study aimed to simulate the dam breach failure scenario of the Yabous dam (northeast Algeria) and analyze its influence on the related areas (urban and natural environments) downstream of the dam. The simulation was completed using the sensitivity analysis method to assess the impact of breach parameters and flooding on the dam break scenario. The flood wave propagation associated with the dam break was simulated using the one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model. This study applied a sensitivity analysis of three breach parameters (slope, width, and formation time) on five sites selected downstream of the embankment dam. The simulation showed that the maximum flow of the flood wave recorded at the level of the breach was 8768 m3/s, which gradually attenuated along the river course to reach 1972.7 m3/s at about 8.5 km downstream the dam. This study established the map of flood risk areas that illustrated zones threatened by the flooding wave triggered by the dam failure due to extreme rainfall events. The sensitivity analysis showed that flood wave flow, height, and width revealed positive and similar changes for the increases in adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of breach width and slope in the five sites. However, flood wave parameters of breach formation time showed significant trends that changed in the opposite direction compared to breach slope and width. Meanwhile, the adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of the flood hydrograph did not significantly influence the flood parameters downstream of the dam. In the present study, the HEC-RAS 1-D modeling demonstrated effectiveness in simulating the propagation of flood waves downstream of the dam in the event of dam failure and highlighted the impact of the breach parameters and the flood hydrographical pattern on flood wave parameters.

Application of an Optimization/Simulation Model for the Real-Time Flood Operation of River-Reservoir Systems with One- and Two-Dimensional Unsteady Flow Modeling

An application is presented of a new methodology for the real-time operations of river-reservoir systems. The methodology is based upon an optimization/simulation modeling approach that interfaces optimization with a one and/or two-dimensional unsteady flow simulation model (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS). The approach also includes a model for short-term rainfall forecasting, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-HMS model for rainfall-runoff modeling. Both short-term forecasted rainfall in addition to gaged streamflow data and/or NEXRAD (Next-Generation Radar) can be implemented in the modeling approach. The optimization solution methodology is based upon a genetic algorithm implemented through MATLAB. The application is based upon the May 2010 flood event on the Cumberland River system in the USA, during which releases from Old Hickory dam caused major flooding in the downstream area of Nashville, TN, USA, and allowed the dam to be placed in an emergency operational situation. One of the major features of the modeling effort and the application presented was to investigate the use of different unsteady flow modeling approaches available in the HEC-RAS, including one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), and the combined (1D/2D) approach. One of the major results of the application was to investigate the use the different unsteady flow approaches in the modeling approach. The 2D unsteady flow modeling, based upon the diffusion wave approach, was found to be superior for the application to the Cumberland River system. The model application successfully determined real-time operations that would have maintained the flood water surface elevations at the downstream control point in Nashville below the 100-year return period river water surface and maintaining the gate openings at the Old Hickory Dam from reaching an emergency operational situation, which could have caused major losses at the dam.

Evaluating the Forecast Skill of a Hydrometeorological Modelling System in Greece

A hydrometeorological forecasting system has been operating at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) since September 2015. The system consists of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS hydraulic–hydrodynamic model. The system provides daily 120 h weather forecasts focusing on Greece (4 km horizontal resolution) and hydrological forecasts for the Spercheios and Evrotas rivers in Greece (100 m horizontal resolution), also providing flash flood inundation forecasts when needed (5 m horizontal resolution). The main aim of this study is to evaluate precipitation forecasts produced in a 4-year period (September 2015–August 2019) using measurements from meteorological stations across Greece. Water level forecasts for the Evrotas and Spercheios rivers were also evaluated using measurements from hydrological stations operated by the IMBRIW. Moreover, the forecast skill of the chained meteorological–hydrological–hydraulic operation of the system was investigated during a catastrophic flash flood in the Evrotas river. The results indicated that the system provided skillful precipitation and water level forecasts. The best evaluation results were yielded during rainy periods. They also demonstrated that timely flash flood forecasting products could benefit flood warning and emergency responses due to their efficiency and increased lead time.

Flood Mapping from Dam Break Due to Peak Inflow: A Coupled Rainfall–Runoff and Hydraulic Models Approach

In this study, we conducted flood mapping of a hypothetical dam break by coupling the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models under different return periods of flood inflow. This study is presented as a case study on the Kesem embankment dam in Ethiopia. Hourly hydrological and meteorological data and high-resolution land surface datasets were used to simulate the design floods for piping dam failure with empirical dam breach methods. Based on the extreme inflows and the dam physical characteristics, the dam failure was simulated by a two-dimensional, unsteady flow hydrodynamic model. As a result, the dam will remain safe for up to 50-year return-period inflows, but it breaks for 100- and 200-year return periods and floods the downstream area. For the 100-year peak inflow, a 208 km2 area will be inundated by a maximum depth of 20 m and for a maximum duration of 46 h. The 200-year inflow will inundate a 240 km2 area with a maximum depth of 31 m for a maximum duration of 93 h. The 2D flood map provides satisfactory spatial and temporal resolution of the inundated area for evaluation of the affected facilities.

A GIS-Based Spatial Analysis Model Approach for Identification of Optimal Hydrotechnical Solutions for Gully Erosion Stabilization. Case Study

The accentuated degradation of agricultural lands as a result of deep erosion processes is the main problem identified in abandoned agricultural lands under the rainfall intensities, increasing number of hot days, indirectly under the impact processes derived from them (soil erosion, vegetation drying, etc.), as well as inadequate or poor management policies implemented by local authorities. The present study aims to develop and present a methodology based on GIS spatial analysis to choose the best hydro-amelioration solution for the arrangement of a complex ravine that negatively affects the entire agroecological area in its immediate vicinity. The proposed model is developed on spatial databases obtained based on UAV flights, the simulation of flow rate values and the establishment of three hydraulic analysis models through the HEC-RAS software with the main purpose of evaluating the results and databases, in order to identify the best implementing model for the stabilization and reduction in erosion within the analysed area. The comparative analysis of the three analysed scenarios highlighted the fact that a dam-type structure with overflow represents the best hydro-ameliorative solution to be implemented in the present study. The accuracy of the obtained results highlights the usefulness of developing GIS models of transdisciplinary spatial analysis to identify optimal solutions that can be implemented in territories with similar characteristics.