Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula

Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment

Climate and land-use change are key drivers of global change. Full-factorial field experiments in which both drivers are manipulated are essential to understand and predict their potentially interactive effects on the structure and functioning of grassland ecosystems. Here, we present 8 years of data on grassland dynamics from the Global Change Experimental Facility in Central Germany. On large experimental plots, temperature and seasonal patterns of precipitation are manipulated by superimposing regional climate model projections onto background climate variability. Climate manipulation is factorially crossed with agricultural land-use scenarios, including intensively used meadows and extensively used (i.e., low-intensity) meadows and pastures. Inter-annual variation of background climate during our study years was high, including three of the driest years on record for our region. The effects of this temporal variability far exceeded the effects of the experimentally imposed climate change on plant species diversity and productivity, especially in the intensively used grasslands sown with only a few grass cultivars. These changes in productivity and diversity in response to alterations in climate were due to immigrant species replacing the target forage cultivars. This shift from forage cultivars to immigrant species may impose additional economic costs in terms of a decreasing forage value and the need for more frequent management measures. In contrast, the extensively used grasslands showed weaker responses to both experimentally manipulated future climate and inter-annual climate variability, suggesting that these diverse grasslands are more resistant to climate change than intensively used, species-poor grasslands. We therefore conclude that a lower management intensity of agricultural grasslands, associated with a higher plant diversity, can stabilize primary productivity under climate change.

Influence of environmental factors on the occurrence of gastrointestinal and cardiopulmonary nematodes in the red fox in the semi-arid Mediterranean areas of the Iberian Peninsula

Human-induced ecosystem fragmentation is one of the drivers causing wildlife migration from their natural habitats to urban areas, among other reasons. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the most abundant wild canid in the semi-arid Mediterranean areas of the Iberian Peninsula. Water scarcity may result in areas shared by synanthropic fox populations and domestic animals becoming hotspots for parasite transmission. This study describes the gastrointestinal and cardiopulmonary nematode species affecting fox populations in these semi-arid areas and the influence of environmental variables on parasite abundance. A total of 167 foxes collected from 2015 to 2021 in the Region of Murcia (SE Spain) were analysed. Parasite abundance and spatial distribution were evaluated using environmental variables and host characteristics with a Generalised Linear Model and the Moran index. Eleven species (seven from the gastrointestinal tract and four from the cardiopulmonary tract) were described. The influence of biotic and abiotic variables was studied for Angiostrongylus vasorum, Crenosoma vulpis, Uncinaria stenocephala, Toxocara canis and Toxascaris leonina. Temperature, humidity and areas of forest or agricultural land influenced the abundance of these parasites, providing optimal conditions for free-living stages of the direct life cycle nematodes and intermediate hosts. Absolute abundance distribution maps showed defined locations for C. vulpis, T. canis and T. leonina. The results for U. stenocephala, T. canis and T. leonina were particularly important as their higher abundance levels were found close to anthropized areas, which need to be carefully evaluated to prevent transmission of these nematodes between domestic and wild canids and human health.

Distribution patterns of Quercus ilex from the last interglacial period to the future by ecological niche modeling

The plants' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human-induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid-Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050-2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with algorithms from the R-package "biomod2" and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others. Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long-term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data. Furthermore, the models suggest long-term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species' historical distribution.

Influence of Climate Change on Metabolism and Biological Characteristics in Perennial Woody Fruit Crops in the Mediterranean Environment

The changes in the state of the climate have a high impact on perennial fruit crops thus threatening food availability. Indeed, climatic factors affect several plant aspects, such as phenological stages, physiological processes, disease-pest frequency, yield, and qualitative composition of the plant tissues and derived products. To mitigate the effects of climatic parameters variability, plants implement several strategies of defense, by changing phenological trends, altering physiology, increasing carbon sequestration, and metabolites synthesis. This review was divided into two sections. The first provides data on climate change in the last years and a general consideration on their impact, mitigation, and resilience in the production of food crops. The second section reviews the consequences of climate change on the industry of two woody fruit crops models (evergreen and deciduous trees). The research focused on, citrus, olive, and loquat as evergreen trees examples; while grape, apple, pear, cherry, apricot, almond, peach, kiwi, fig, and persimmon as deciduous species. Perennial fruit crops originated by a complex of decisions valuable in a long period and involving economic and technical problems that farmers may quickly change in the case of annual crops. However, the low flexibility of woody crops is balanced by resilience in the long-life cycle.

Flood Hazards in Flat Coastal Areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula: A Case Study in Oliva (Valencia, Spain)

Enhancing resilience against flooding events is of great importance. Eastern Iberian Peninsula coastal areas are well known for high intensity rainfalls known as DANA or “cold drop”. Extreme records in 24 h can exceed the annual average of the historical series. This phenomenon occurs normally in autumn due to convective storms generated by the existence of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere combined with warm winds coming from the Mediterranean Sea. In many coastal areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, their flat topography, sometimes of a marsh nature, and the natural (e.g., dune ridges) and man-made (e.g., infrastructures) factors, result in devastating flooding events of great potential damage and risk for urban and rural areas. In this context, this paper presents the case study of the town of Oliva (Valencia, Spain) and how in a flooding event the flow tends to spread and accumulate along the flat coastal strip of this populated area, causing great potential damage. From that point, the paper discusses the particular issues that flood studies should consider in such flat and heavy rainy areas in terms of the hydrological and hydraulic models to be conducted to serve as the key tool of a correct risk assessment. This includes the correct statistical simulation of rainfalls, the hydrological model dependency on the return period and the correct geometry definition of all possible water barriers. An analysis of the disturbance that climatic change effects may introduce in future flooding events is also performed.