Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Simulation between Support Vector Regression and HEC-HMS for a Rural Watershed in Taiwan

Improving the simulations of the hydrological model in the karst catchment by integrating the conceptual model with machine learning models

Hydrological modelling can be complex in nonhomogeneous catchments with diverse geological, climatic, and topographic conditions. In this study, an integrated conceptual model including the snow module with machine learning modelling approaches was implemented for daily rainfall-runoff modelling in mostly karst Ljubljanica catchment, Slovenia, which has heterogeneous characteristics and is potentially exposed to extreme events that make the modelling process more challenging and crucial. In this regard, the conceptual model CemaNeige Génie Rural à 6 paramètres Journalier (CemaNeige GR6J) was combined with machine learning models, namely wavelet-based support vector regression (WSVR) and wavelet-based multivariate adaptive regression spline (WMARS) to enhance modelling performance. In this study, the performance of the models was comprehensively investigated, considering their ability to forecast daily extreme runoff. Although CemaNeige GR6J yielded a very good performance, it overestimated low flows. The WSVR and WMARS models yielded poorer performance than the conceptual and hybrid models. The hybrid model approach improved the performance of the machine learning models and the conceptual model by revealing the linkage between variables and runoff in the conceptual model, which provided more accurate results for extreme flows. Accordingly, the hybrid models improved the forecasting performance of the maximum flows up to 40 % and 61 %, and minimum flows up to 73 % and 72 % compared to the CemaNeige GR6J and stand-alone machine learning models. In this regard, the hybrid model approach can enhance the daily rainfall-runoff modelling performance in nonhomogeneous and karst catchments where the hydrological process can be more complicated.

Comparison of Two Hydrological Models, HEC-HMS and SWAT in Runoff Estimation: Application to Huai Bang Sai Tropical Watershed, Thailand

In the present study, the streamflow simulation capacities between the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) were compared for the Huai Bang Sai (HBS) watershed in northeastern Thailand. During calibration (2007–2010) and validation (2011–2014), the SWAT model demonstrated a Coefficient of Determination (R2) and a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.83 and 0.82, and 0.78 and 0.77, respectively. During the same periods, the HEC-HMS model demonstrated values of 0.80 and 0.79, and 0.84 and 0.82. The exceedance probabilities at 10%, 40%, and 90% were 144.5, 14.5, and 0.9 mm in the flow duration curves (FDCs) obtained for observed flow. From the HEC-HMS and SWAT models, these indices yielded 109.0, 15.0, and 0.02 mm, and 123.5, 16.95, and 0.02 mm. These results inferred those high flows were captured well by the SWAT model, while medium flows were captured well by the HEC-HMS model. It is noteworthy that the low flows were accurately simulated by both models. Furthermore, dry and wet seasonal flows were simulated reasonably well by the SWAT model with slight under-predictions of 2.12% and 13.52% compared to the observed values. The HEC-HMS model under-predicted the dry and wet seasonal flows by 10.76% and 18.54% compared to observed flows. The results of the present study will provide valuable recommendations for the stakeholders of the HBS watershed to improve water usage policies. In addition, the present study will be helpful to select the most appropriate hydrologic model for humid tropical watersheds in Thailand and elsewhere in the world.

Application of Machine Learning and Process-Based Models for Rainfall-Runoff Simulation in DuPage River Basin, Illinois

Rainfall-runoff simulation is vital for planning and controlling flood control events. Hydrology modeling using Hydrological Engineering Center—Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is accepted globally for event-based or continuous simulation of the rainfall-runoff operation. Similarly, machine learning is a fast-growing discipline that offers numerous alternatives suitable for hydrology research’s high demands and limitations. Conventional and process-based models such as HEC-HMS are typically created at specific spatiotemporal scales and do not easily fit the diversified and complex input parameters. Therefore, in this research, the effectiveness of Random Forest, a machine learning model, was compared with HEC-HMS for the rainfall-runoff process. Furthermore, we also performed a hydraulic simulation in Hydrological Engineering Center—Geospatial River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using the input discharge obtained from the Random Forest model. The reliability of the Random Forest model and the HEC-HMS model was evaluated using different statistical indexes. The coefficient of determination (R2), standard deviation ratio (RSR), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) were 0.94, 0.23, and 0.17 for the training data and 0.72, 0.56, and 0.26 for the testing data, respectively, for the Random Forest model. Similarly, the R2, RSR, and NRMSE were 0.99, 0.16, and 0.06 for the calibration period and 0.96, 0.35, and 0.10 for the validation period, respectively, for the HEC-HMS model. The Random Forest model slightly underestimated peak discharge values, whereas the HEC-HMS model slightly overestimated the peak discharge value. Statistical index values illustrated the good performance of the Random Forest and HEC-HMS models, which revealed the suitability of both models for hydrology analysis. In addition, the flood depth generated by HEC-RAS using the Random Forest predicted discharge underestimated the flood depth during the peak flooding event. This result proves that HEC-HMS could compensate Random Forest for the peak discharge and flood depth during extreme events. In conclusion, the integrated machine learning and physical-based model can provide more confidence in rainfall-runoff and flood depth prediction.

Mitigation Techniques for Water-Induced Natural Disasters: The State of the Art

According to the 2020 edition of the United Nations World Water Development Report (UN WWDR 2020), about 74% of all-natural disasters were water-related between 2001 and 2018 [...]

A Tailings Dam Long-Term Deformation Prediction Method Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and LSTM Model Combined with Attention Mechanism

Tailings dams are constructed as storage dams for ore waste, serving as industrial waste piles and for drainage. The dam is negatively affected by rainfall, infiltration lines and its own gravity, which can cause its instability to gradually increase, leading to dam deformation. To predict the irregular changes of tailings dam deformation, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to the deformation data to obtain the trend and periodic components. The attention mechanism is used to assign different weights to the input variables to overcome the limitation that the long short-term memory (LSTM) model can only generate fixed-length vectors. The lagged autocorrelation coefficient is applied to each decomposed subregion to solve the lagging effect of external factors on dam deformation. Finally, the model is used to predict deformation in multiple directions to test the generalization ability. The proposed method can effectively mitigate the problems of gradient disappearance and gradient explosion. The applied results show that, compared with the control model EMD-LSTM, the evaluation indexes RMSE and MAE improve 23.66% and 27.90%, respectively. The method also has a high prediction accuracy in the remaining directions of the tailings dam, which has a wide practical application effect and provides a new idea for tailings dam deformation mechanism research.

Analysing the Performance of Four Hydrological Models in a Chinese Arid and Semi-Arid Catchment

Frequent flood hazards in the Raoyang River Basin in western Liaoning, China, have posed serious threats to people’s lives and property. In an effort to study the simulation efficiencies of hydrological models in this arid and semi-arid catchment, this study examined the performance of the Xin’anjiang model, the Liaoning unsaturated model, and the DHF model in the Dongbaichengzi station watershed in the upper reaches of the Raoyang River, China. Additionally, this paper proposed an improved DHF model, which considers the impoundment and regulation of small- and medium-sized reservoirs in the upper reaches of the basin. The flood simulation results demonstrated that the Xin’anjiang model was difficult to apply in this area because the average value of its Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was as low as 0.31. Meanwhile, the simulation efficiencies of the Liaoning unsaturated model and the DHF model were higher than that of the Xin’anjiang model, but the relative error of flood peak discharge and runoff depth for most floods were still high and could not meet the actual forecast requirements by the Reservoir Administration Bureau of Liaoning Province. Overall, the improved DHF model showed the best efficiency, and the mean value of the NSE reached 0.79. Therefore, the improved DHF model has good applicability in the Dongbaichengzi station watershed in the upper reaches of the Raoyang River, China.