Assessment of Water Resources Availability in Amu Darya River Basin Using GRACE Data

Mapping groundwater potential zone in the subarnarekha basin, India, using a novel hybrid multi-criteria approach in Google earth Engine

Assessing groundwater potential for sustainable resource management is critically important. In addressing this concern, this study aims to advance the field by developing an innovative approach for Groundwater potential zone (GWPZ) mapping using advanced techniques, such as FuzzyAHP, FuzzyDEMATEL, and Logistic regression (LR) models. GWPZ was carried out by integrating various primary factors, such as hydrologic, soil permeability, morphometric, terrain distribution, and anthropogenic influences, incorporating twenty-seven individual criteria using multi-criteria decision models along with a hybrid approach for the Subarnarekha River basin, India, in Google earth engine (GEE). The predictive capability of the model was evaluated using a Multi-Collinearity test (VIF <10.0), followed by applying a random forest model, considering the weighted impact of the five primary factors. The hybrid model for GWPZ classification showed that 21.97 % (4256.3 km2) of the area exhibited very high potential, while 11.37 % (2202.1 km2) indicated very low potential for GW in this area. Validation of the groundwater level data from 72 observation wells, performed by the Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve technique, yielded values ranging between 75 % and 78 % for different models, underscoring the robust predictability of GWPZ. The hybrid and LR-FuzzyAHP models demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in GWPZ mapping, indicating that the downstream and southern regions boast substantial groundwater potential attributed to alluvial soil and favorable recharge conditions. Conversely, the central part grapples with a scarcity of groundwater. It holds the potential to assist planners and managers in formulating strategies for managing groundwater levels and alleviating the impacts of future droughts.

Projection of temperature extremes of Egypt using CMIP6 GCMs under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways

Global warming has amplified the frequency of temperature extremes, especially in hot dry countries, which could have serious consequences for the natural and built environments. Egypt is one of the hot desert climate regions that are more susceptible to climate change and associated hazards. This study attempted to project the changes in temperature extremes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 and two future periods (early future: 2020-2059 and late future: 2060-2099) by using daily maximum (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) of general circulation model (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The findings showed that most temperature extreme indices would increase especially by the end of the century. In the late future, the change in the mean T_min (4.3 °C) was projected to be higher than the mean T_max (3.7 °C). Annual maximum T_max, temperature above 95th percentile of T_max, and the number of hot days above 40 °C and 45 °C were projected to increase in the range 3.0‒5.4 °C, 1.5‒4.8 °C, 20‒95 days, and 10‒52 days, respectively. In contrast, the annual minimum of T_min, temperature below the 5th percentile, and the annual percentage of cold nights were projected to change in the range of 2.95‒5.0 °C, 1.4‒3.6 °C, and - 0.1‒0.1%, respectively. In all the cases, the lowest changes would be for SSP1-2.6 in the early period and the greatest changes for SSP5-8.5 in the late period. The study indicates that the country is likely to experience a rise in hot extremes and a decline in cold extremes. Therefore, Egypt should take long-term adaptation plans to build social resiliency to rising hot extremes.

Thermal bioclimatic indicators over Southeast Asia: present status and future projection using CMIP6

Mapping potential changes in bioclimatic characteristics are critical for planning mitigation goals and climate change adaptation. Assessment of such changes is particularly important for Southeast Asia (SEA) - home to global largest ecological diversity. Twenty-three global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used in this study to evaluate changes in 11 thermal bioclimatic indicators over SEA for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. Spatial changes in the ensemble mean, 5th, and 95th percentile of each indicator for near (2020-2059) and far (2060-2099) periods were examined in order to understand temporal changes and associated uncertainty. The results indicated large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in projected changes of bioclimatic indicators. A higher change was projected for mainland SEA in the far future and less in maritime region during the near future. At the same time, uncertainty in the projected bioclimatic indices was higher for mainland than maritime SEA. Analysis of mean multi-model ensemble revealed a change in mean temperature ranged from - 0.71 to 3.23 °C in near and from 0.00 to 4.07 °C in far futures. The diurnal temperature range was projected to reduce over most of SEA (ranging from - 1.1 to - 2.0 °C), while isothermality is likely to decrease from - 1.1 to - 4.6%. A decrease in isothermality along with narrowing of seasonality indicated a possible shift in climate, particularly in the north of mainland SEA. Maximum temperature in the warmest month/quarter was projected to increase a little more than the coldest month/quarter and the mean temperature in the driest month to increase more than the wettest month. This would cause an increase in the annual temperature range in the future.