A Classification-Based Machine Learning Approach to the Prediction of Cyanobacterial Blooms in Chilgok Weir, South Korea

Algal biomass mapping of eutrophic lakes using a machine learning approach with MODIS images

Algal blooms are a widespread issue in eutrophic lakes. Compared with the satellite-derived surface algal bloom area and chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration, algae biomass is a more stable way to reflect water quality. Although satellite data have been adopted to observe the water column integrated algal biomass, the previous methods mostly are empirical algorithms, which are not stable enough for widespread use. This paper proposed a machine learning algorithm based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data to estimate the algal biomass, which was successfully applied to a eutrophic lake in China, Lake Taihu. This algorithm was developed by linking Rayleigh-corrected reflectance to in situ algae biomass data in Lake Taihu (n = 140), and the different mainstream machine learning (ML) methods were compared and validated. The partial least squares regression (PLSR) (R² = 0.67, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 38.88 %) and support vector machines (SVM) (R² = 0.46, MAPE = 52.02 %) performed poor satisfactory. In contrast, random forest (RF) and extremely gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) algorithms had higher accuracy (RF: R² = 0.85, MAPE = 22.68 %; XGBoost: R² = 0.83, MAPE = 24.06 %), demonstrating greater application potential in algal biomass estimation. Field biomass data were further used to estimate the RF algorithm, which showed acceptable precision (R² = 0.86, MAPE < 7 mg Chla). Subsequently, sensitivity analysis showed that the RF algorithm was not sensitive to high suspension and thickness of aerosols (rate of change <2 %), and inter-day and consecutive days verification showed stability (rate of change <5 %). The algorithm was also extended to Lake Chaohu (R² = 0.93, MAPE = 18.42 %), demonstrating its potential in other eutrophic lakes. This study for algae biomass estimation provides technical means with higher accuracy and greater universality for the management of eutrophic lakes.

Describing and simulating phytoplankton of a small and shallow reservoir using decision trees and rule-based models

Phytoplankton represents one of the most important biological components of primary production, trophic interactions, and circulation of organic matter in lakes and reservoirs. To contribute to the understanding of eutrophication processes and ecological status of the small, shallow Butoniga reservoir, a machine learning tool for induction of models in form of decision trees and rule-based models was applied on a dataset comprising physical, chemical, and biological variables measured at four stations. Two types of models were successfully elaborated, i.e., (1) model describing phytoplankton Phylum, which describes and connects phytoplankton Phylum with phytoplankton abundance and biomass, and (2) model simulating phytoplankton biomass according to environmental variables which could be used in management purposes. Such models and their presentation contribute to a better understanding of the Butoniga reservoir ecosystem functioning.