Modeling and Risk Analysis of Dam-Break Flooding in a Semi-Arid Montane Watershed: A Case Study of the Yabous Dam, Northeastern Algeria

Influence of Dam Breach Parameter Statistical Definition on Resulting Rupture Maximum Discharge

However rare, dam breach occurrences are recently reported and associated with significant damage to life and property. The rupture of the structural dam wall generates severe flow rates that exceed spillway capacity consequently generating unprecedented flooding scenarios. The present research aims to assess the influence of the dam breach statistical configuration on the most relevant parameters to predict the rupture maximum discharge (RMD). McBreach© software was used to provide the necessary inputs for the operation of the HEC-RAS dam breach module. McBreach© automates the process of batch mode simulations providing a Monte Carlo approach to characterize the breach parameters stochastically. Thus, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential breach parameters, followed by an uncertainty assessment regarding their statistical definition of the resultant RMD. Analysis showed that the overtopping failure mode discharges are most sensitive to the breach formation time (tf) parameter, followed by the final height breach (Inv) and the final width of the breach (B), which combined are responsible for 85% of the rupture’s maximum discharge. Further results indicated highly variable RMD magnitudes (up to 300%) depending on the breach parameter’s statistical definition (i.e., probability density function and associated statistical parameters). The latter significantly impacts the estimated flood risk associated with the breach, the flood zone delimitation, preparation of emergency action plans (EAP) and scaling of future dam projects. Consequently, there is a plausible need for additional investigations to reduce this uncertainty and, therefore, the risk associated with it.

Dynamics of Embankment Slope Stability under Combination of Operating Water Levels and Drawdown Conditions

This study investigated the potential influence of operating water levels and loading conditions on the slope stability of an embankment dam. Four different operating reservoir levels (normal, reduced, embankment height, and overflow) were considered in the study. Numerical modeling was used to investigate the problem in the case of the Chardara dam within the Syrdarya catchment in Kazakhstan. Based on the drawdown rates and operating conditions, minimum factor of safety values ranging from 0.56 (total failure) to 2.5 were retrieved. Furthermore, a very high correlation was observed between drawdown days, the minimum factor of safety values, the maximum factor of safety values, and pore-water pressures, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.561 to 0.997 (strong to very strong correlation). On the other hand, the highest negative correlation of 0.997 was observed between the minimum factor of safety values and pore-water pressures. Additionally, based on the results from the analysis of variance, three reservoir operating levels (normal, embankment height, and overflow) resulted in p-values less than 0.05, indicating that the variations in the factor of safety values from the drawdown rates were statistically significant. The findings of this study demonstrated that, not only may the drawdown rate be detrimental to the embankments, but that different operating levels can also affect slope stability in different ways.