Development of a New Multivariate Composite Drought Index for the Blue Nile River Basin

Spatiotemporal monitoring of drought using satellite precipitation products: The case of Borena agro-pastoralists and pastoralists regions, South Ethiopia

Drought is increasingly affecting farmers in agro-pastoralist and pastoralists region. It is one of the most harmful natural disasters that significantly affects rain-fed agriculture in developing countries. Drought assessment is an important component of drought risk management. This study used CHIRPS rainfall data to monitor the characteristics of drought in Borena Zone in southern Ethiopia. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to calculate the magnitude, intensity, and severity of drought during the rainy season. Results show that severe and extreme droughts were detected in the first rainy season (March to May) and second wet season (September to November). Severe and extreme droughts were detected in the first rainy/wet season in 1992, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2002-2004, 2008,2009, 2011, 2019-2021. The spatial and temporal variability of drought is highly influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Ethiopia. Results revealed that most of the first rainy season was dry. 2011 was the driest year during the first wet season. Drought risk events in the first wet season were greater than in the second wet season. Results show that drought more frequently occurred in the northern and southern part in the first wet season. In the second rainy season extreme drought was detected in 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 1997. The results of this study will promote the importance of early warning measures, drought risk management, and food security management in the study area.

Development of a Multiple-Drought Index for Comprehensive Drought Risk Assessment Using a Dynamic Naive Bayesian Classifier

Korea has made various efforts to reduce drought damage; however, socio-economic damage has increased in recent years due to climate change, which has led to increasing frequency and intensity of drought. In South Korea, because precipitation is concentrated in the summer, drought damage will be significant in the event of failure of water resources management. Seasonal and regional imbalances in precipitation have contributed to recent extreme droughts in South Korea. In addition, population growth and urbanization have led to increased water use and contributed to water shortage. Drought risk analysis must address multiple contributing factors and comprehensively assess the effects or occurrence of future droughts, which are essential for planning drought mitigation to cope with actual droughts. Drought mitigation depends on the water supply capacity during dry spells. In this study, a dynamic naive Bayesian classifier-based multiple drought index (DNBC-MDI) was developed by combining the strengths of conventional drought indices and water supply capacity. The DNBC-MDI was applied to a bivariate drought frequency analysis to evaluate hydrologic risk of extreme droughts. In addition, future changes of the risk were investigated according to climate change scenarios. As a result, the drought risk had a decreasing trend from the historic period of 1974–2016 to the future period of 2017–2070, then had an increasing trend in the period of 2071–2099.