Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments

Far-future hydrology will differentially change the phosphorus transfer continuum

Climate change is likely to exacerbate land to water phosphorus (P) transfers, causing a degradation of water quality in freshwater bodies in Northwestern Europe. Planning for mitigation measures requires an understanding of P loss processes under such conditions. This study assesses how climate induced changes to hydrology will likely influence the P transfer continuum in six contrasting river catchments using Irish national observatories as exemplars. Changes or stability of total P (TP) and total reactive P (TRP) transfer processes were estimated using far-future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of modelled river discharge under climate change and observed links between hydrological regimes (baseflow and flashiness indices) and transfer processes (mobilisation and delivery indices). While there were no differences in P mobilisation between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both mobilisation and delivery were higher for TP. Comparing data from 2080 (2070-2099) with 2020 (2010-2039), suggests that P mobilisation is expected to be relatively stable for the different catchments. While P delivery is highest in hydrologically flashy catchments, the largest increases were in groundwater-fed catchments in RCP8.5 (+ 22% for TRP and + 24% for TP). The inter-annual variability of P delivery in the groundwater-fed catchments is also expected to increase. Since the magnitude of a P source may not fully define its mobility, and hydrological connections of mobilisation areas are expected to increase, we recommend identifying critical mobilisation areas to target future mitigation strategies. These are hydrologically connected areas where controls such as soil/bedrock chemistry, biological activity and hydrological processes are favourable for P mobilisation.