Comparison of Performance between Genetic Algorithm and SCE-UA for Calibration of SCS-CN Surface Runoff Simulation

Integrated Simulation and Calibration Framework for Heating System Optimization

In a time where sustainability and CO2 efficiency are of ever-increasing importance, heating systems deserve special considerations. Despite well-functioning hardware, inefficiencies may arise when controller parameters are not well chosen. While monitoring systems could help to identify such issues, they lack improvement suggestions. One possible solution would be the use of digital twins; however, critical values such as the water consumption of the residents can often not be acquired for accurate models. To address this issue, coarse models can be employed to generate quantitative predictions, which can then be interpreted qualitatively to assess "better or worse" system behavior. In this paper, we present a simulation and calibration framework as well as a preprocessing module. These components can be run locally or deployed as containerized microservices and are easy to interface with existing data acquisition infrastructure. We evaluate the two main operating modes, namely automatic model calibration, using measured data, and the optimization of controller parameters. Our results show that using a coarse model of a real heating system and data augmentation through preprocessing, it is possible to achieve an acceptable fit of partially incomplete measured data, and that the calibrated model can subsequently be used to perform an optimization of the controller parameters in regard to the simulated boiler gas consumption.

Bayesian Calibration of the Aquacrop-OS Model for Durum Wheat by Assimilation of Canopy Cover Retrieved from VENµS Satellite Data

Crop growth models play an important role in agriculture management, allowing, for example, the spatialized estimation of crop yield information. However, crop model parameter calibration is a mandatory step for their application. The present work focused on the regional calibration of the Aquacrop-OS model for durum wheat by assimilating high spatial and temporal resolution canopy cover data retrieved from VENµS satellite images. The assimilation procedure was implemented using the Bayesian approach with the recent implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm DREAM(KZS). The fraction of vegetation cover (fvc) was retrieved from the VENµS satellite images for two years, during the durum wheat growing seasons of 2018 and 2019 in Central Italy. The retrieval was based on a hybrid method using PROSAIL Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulations for training a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) algorithm, combined with Active Learning to reduce the computational cost. The Aquacrop-OS model was calibrated with the fvc data of 2017–2018 for the Maccarese farm in Central Italy and validated with the 2018–2019 data. The retrieval accuracy of the fvc from the VENµS images were the Coefficient of Determination (R2) = 0.76, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.09, and Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) = 11.6%, when compared with the ground-measured fvc. The MCMC results are presented in terms of Gelman–Rubin R statistics and MR statistics, Markov chains, and marginal posterior distribution functions, which are summarized with the mean values for the most sensitive crop parameters of the Aquacrop-OS model subjected to calibration. When validating for the fvc, the R2 of the model for year (2018–2019) ranged from 0.69 to 0.86. The RMSE, Relative Error (RE), Relative Variability (α), and Relative Bias (β) ranged from 0.15 to 0.44, 0.19 to 2.79, 0.84 to 1.45, and 0.91 to 1.95, respectively. The present work shows the importance of the calibration of the Aquacrop-OS (AOS) crop water productivity model for durum wheat by assimilating remote sensing information from VENµS satellite data.

Evaluation and Comparison of Light Use Efficiency and Gross Primary Productivity Using Three Different Approaches

Light use efficiency (LUE), which characterizes the efficiency with which vegetation converts captured/absorbed radiation into organic dry matter through photosynthesis, is a key parameter for estimating vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). Studies suggest that diffuse radiation induces a higher LUE than direct radiation in short-term and site-scale experiments. The clearness index (CI), described as the fraction of solar incident radiation on the surface of the earth to the extraterrestrial radiation at the top of the atmosphere, is added to the parameterization approach to explain the conditions of diffuse and direct radiation in this study. Machine learning methods—such as the Cubist regression tree approach—are also popular approaches for studying vegetation carbon uptake. This paper aims to compare and analyze the performances of three different approaches for estimating global LUE and GPP. The methods for collecting LUE were based on the following: (1) parameterization approach without CI; (2) parameterization approach with CI; and (3) Cubist regression tree approach. We collected GPP and meteorological data from 180 FLUXNET sites as calibration and validation data and the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) products and ERA-interim data as input data to estimate the global LUE and GPP in 2014. Site-scale validation with FLUXNET measurements indicated that the Cubist regression approach performed better than the parameterization approaches. However, when applying the approaches to global LUE and GPP, the parameterization approach with the CI became the most reliable approach, then closely followed by the parameterization approach without the CI. Spatial analysis showed that the addition of the CI improved the LUE and GPP, especially in high-value zones. The results of the Cubist regression tree approach illustrate more fluctuations than the parameterization approaches. Although the distributions of LUE presented variations over different seasons, vegetation had the highest LUE, at approximately 1.5 gC/MJ, during the whole year in equatorial regions (e.g., South America, middle Africa and Southeast Asia). The three approaches produced roughly consistent global annual GPPs ranging from 109.23 to 120.65 Pg/yr. Our results suggest the parameterization approaches are robust when extrapolating to the global scale, of which the parameterization approach with CI performs slightly better than that without CI. By contrast, the Cubist regression tree produced LUE and GPP with lower accuracy even though it performed the best for model validation at the site scale.

Optimal implementation of green infrastructure practices to minimize influences of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality: Case study in Spy Run Creek watershed, Indiana

Nutrient loading from the Maumee River watershed is a significant reason for the harmful algal blooms (HABs) problem in Lake Erie. The nutrient loading from urban areas needs to be reduced with the installation of green infrastructure (GI) practices. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model was used to explore the influences of land use (LU) and climate change on water quantity and quality in Spy Run Creek watershed (SRCW) (part of Maumee River watershed), decide whether and where excess phosphorus loading existed, identify critical areas to understand where the greatest amount of runoff/pollutants originated, and optimally implement GI practices to obtain maximum environmental benefits with the lowest costs. Both LU/climate changes increased runoff/pollutants generated from the watershed. Areas with the highest runoff/pollutant amount per area, or critical areas, differed for various environmental concerns, land uses (LUs), and climates. Compared to optimization considering all areas, optimization conducted only in critical areas can provide similar cost-effective results with decreased computational time for low levels of runoff/pollutant reductions, but critical area optimization results were not as cost-effective for higher levels of runoff/pollutant reductions. Runoff/pollutants for 2011/2050 LUs/climates could be reduced to amounts of 2001 LU/climate by installation of GI practices with annual expenditures of $0.34 to $2.05 million. The optimization scenarios that were able to obtain the 2001 runoff level in 2011/2050, can also reduce all pollutants to 2001 levels in this watershed.