Effects of Permafrost Degradation on the Hydrological Regime in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, China

Late Summer Water Sources in Rivers and Lakes of the Upper Yana River Basin, Northern Eurasia, Inferred from Hydrological Tracer Data

Major ions, stable isotopes, and trace elements, including rare earth elements (REEs), are used as natural tracers in the qualitative assessment of potential water sources in lakes and rivers of the upper Yana River basin, between Verkhoyansk and Chersky Ranges, during the late summer period. Three distinct regions were sampled, and a dominant water source in each region was qualitatively inferred from water chemistry data. The REE distribution pattern was found to be highly regional and controlled by pH and carbonate contents. Mountain headwater stream at the Verkhoyansk Range north slope, the Dulgalakh River, shows an input from a mixture of shallow groundwater and icing meltwater, with a depleted isotopic signature (δ18O below –21‰), d-excess (dex = δ2H − 8·δ18O) above 18, enrichment in Mg and Sr, and depletion in heavy REEs. The Derbeke Depression lakes and streams are fed by rainfall having ultra-low total dissolved solids (TDS) content, below 25 mg/L, and a convex-up REE pattern. In a medium mountainous river at the Chersky Range flank, the Dogdo River, leaching through fissured Jurassic carbonates is a dominant runoff pathway. Riverine water is heavily depleted in light REEs, but enriched in Mo, Rb, Sb,W and U. In the Dulgalakh River water, high positive Sm and Gd anomalies were observed, attributed either to local geology (greenshists), historical mining legacy, or contemporary winter road operations.

Permafrost Degradation and Its Hydrogeological Impacts

Under a warming climate, permafrost degradation has resulted in profound hydrogeological consequences. Here, we mainly review 240 recent relevant papers. Permafrost degradation has boosted groundwater storage and discharge to surface runoffs through improving hydraulic connectivity and reactivation of groundwater flow systems, resulting in reduced summer peaks, delayed autumn flow peaks, flattened annual hydrographs, and deepening and elongating flow paths. As a result of permafrost degradation, lowlands underlain by more continuous, colder, and thicker permafrost are getting wetter and uplands and mountain slopes, drier. However, additional contribution of melting ground ice to groundwater and stream-flows seems limited in most permafrost basins. As a result of permafrost degradation, the permafrost table and supra-permafrost water table are lowering; subaerial supra-permafrost taliks are forming; taliks are connecting and expanding; thermokarst activities are intensifying. These processes may profoundly impact on ecosystem structures and functions, terrestrial processes, surface and subsurface coupled flow systems, engineered infrastructures, and socioeconomic development. During the last 20 years, substantial and rapid progress has been made in many aspects in cryo-hydrogeology. However, these studies are still inadequate in desired spatiotemporal resolutions, multi-source data assimilation and integration, as well as cryo-hydrogeological modeling, particularly over rugged terrains in ice-rich, warm (>−1 °C) permafrost zones. Future research should be prioritized to the following aspects. First, we should better understand the concordant changes in processes, mechanisms, and trends for terrestrial processes, hydrometeorology, geocryology, hydrogeology, and ecohydrology in warm and thin permafrost regions. Second, we should aim towards revealing the physical and chemical mechanisms for the coupled processes of heat transfer and moisture migration in the vadose zone and expanding supra-permafrost taliks, towards the coupling of the hydrothermal dynamics of supra-, intra- and sub-permafrost waters, as well as that of water-resource changes and of hydrochemical and biogeochemical mechanisms for the coupled movements of solutes and pollutants in surface and subsurface waters as induced by warming and thawing permafrost. Third, we urgently need to establish and improve coupled predictive distributed cryo-hydrogeology models with optimized parameterization. In addition, we should also emphasize automatically, intelligently, and systematically monitoring, predicting, evaluating, and adapting to hydrogeological impacts from degrading permafrost at desired spatiotemporal scales. Systematic, in-depth, and predictive studies on and abilities for the hydrogeological impacts from degrading permafrost can greatly advance geocryology, cryo-hydrogeology, and cryo-ecohydrology and help better manage water, ecosystems, and land resources in permafrost regions in an adaptive and sustainable manner.

Perspectives on emerging pressures and their integrated impact on large river systems: An insight from the Yellow River basin

The Yellow River, with a developmental and historical significance to China, is now facing several emerging pressures, which are degrading the river status and creating challenges for high-quality development in the basin. Numerous studies on such emerging pressures, present scattered outcomes, and trigger uncertainties and deficient assumptions on the river's problems. This review integrated such scattered information and investigated the emerging pressures, their drivers and integrated impacts at the basin level. The study intended to prioritize those pressures needing expeditious consideration, and carried a discussion on the alternative pathways to the solution. To determine the critical emerging pressures, a literature review was conducted and experts' opinion was sought. The outcome further led to a comprehensive review, data collection, and analysis of three groups of emerging pressures. The review recognized 'Water Stress' in the lower reach, primarily caused by an abated flow, as the most distressing emerging pressure inflicting social, ecological, and economic consequences. Such decline in flow was mostly induced by a recent increase in 'Anthropogenic activities', such as intensive water withdrawal for irrigation (≥27 BCM), and construction of check dams in the Loess Plateau region (trapping~5 BCM water). The increasing 'Pollution' in the river, besides threatening public health and ecology, also contributed to the water stress by rendering certain stretches of the river biologically dead and unsuitable for any use. The 'Climate Change', with its key negative effect on precipitation in the middle sub-basin, overall contributed small (8-11 %) to the observed reduction in river flow. With increasing challenges for the adopted engineering solutions tackling the water stress, the study suggested the use of a demand management approach, employing adaptive policy measures, as an alternative or supplementary solution to the current approach. In addition, the study highlights that regular reviewing and reforming the key decisions based on evidence and updated information, and taking a participatory approach, may offer a sustainable pathway to the environment as well as socio-economic goals.

Monitoring and Landscape Dynamic Analysis of Alpine Wetland Area Based on Multiple Algorithms: A Case Study of Zoige Plateau

As an important part of the wetland ecosystem, alpine wetland is not only one of the most important ecological water conservation areas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, but is also an effective regulator of the local climate. In this study, using three machine learning algorithms to extract wetland, we employ the landscape ecological index to quantitatively analyze the evolution of landscape patterns and grey correlation to analyze the driving factors of Zoige wetland landscape pattern change from 1995 to 2020. The following results were obtained. (1) The random forest algorithm (RF) performs best when dealing with high-dimensional data, and the accuracy of the decision tree algorithm (DT) is better. The performance of the RF and DT is better than that of the support vector machine algorithm. (2) The alpine wetland in the study area was degraded from 1995 to 2015, whereas wetland area began to increase after 2015. (3) The results of landscape analysis show the decrease in wetland area from 1995 to 2005 was mainly due to the fragmentation of larger patches into many small patches and loss of the original small patches, while the 2005 to 2015 decrease was caused by the loss of many middle patches and the decrease in large patches from the edge to the middle. The 2015 to 2020 increase is due to an increase in the number of smaller patches and recovery of original wetland area. (4) The grey correlation degree further shows that precipitation and evaporation are the main factors leading to the change in the landscape pattern of Zoige alpine wetland. The results are of great significance to the long-term monitoring of the Zoige wetland ecosystem.

A Climatic Perspective on the Impacts of Global Warming on Water Cycle of Cold Mountainous Catchments in the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

Global warming has a profound influence on global and regional water cycles, especially in the cold mountainous area. However, detecting and quantifying such changes are still difficult because noise and variability in observed streamflow are relatively larger than the long-term trends. In this study, the impacts of global warming on the catchment water cycles in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), one of most important catchments in south of the Tibetan Plateau, are quantified using a climatic approach based on the relationship between basin-scale groundwater storage and low flow at the annual time scale. By using a quantile regression method and flow recession analysis, changes in low flow regimes and basin-scale groundwater storage at the Nuxia hydrological station are quantified at the annual time scale during 1961–2000. Results show annual low flows (10th and 25th annual flows) of the YZRB have decreased significantly, while long-term annual precipitation, total streamflow, and high flows are statistically unchanged. Annual lowest seven-day flow shows a significantly downward trend (2.2 m3/s/a, p < 0.05) and its timing has advanced about 12 days (2.8 day/10a, p < 0.1) during the study period. Estimated annual basin-scale groundwater storage also shows a significant decreasing trend at a rate of 0.079 mm/a (p < 0.05) over the study period. Further analysis suggests that evaporation increase, decreased snow-fraction, and increased annual precipitation intensity induced by the rising temperature possibly are the drivers causing a significant decline in catchment low flow regimes and groundwater storage in the study area. This highlights that an increase in temperature has likely already caused significant changes in regional flow regimes in the high and cold mountainous regions, which has alarming consequences in regional ecological protection and sustainable water resources management.

35 Years of Vegetation and Lake Dynamics in the Pechora Catchment, Russian European Arctic

High-latitude regions are a hot spot of global warming, but the scarce availability of observations often limits the investigation of climate change impacts over these regions. However, the utilization of satellite-based remote sensing data offers new possibilities for such investigations. In the present study, vegetation greening, vegetation moisture and lake distribution derived from medium-resolution satellite imagery were analyzed over the Pechora catchment for the last 35 years. Here, we considered the entire Pechora catchment and the Pechora Delta region, located in the northern part of European Russia, and we investigated the vegetation and lake dynamics over different permafrost zones and across the two major biomes, taiga, and tundra. We also evaluated climate data records from meteorological stations and re-analysis data to find relations between these dynamics and climatic behavior. Considering the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) in the summer, we found a general greening and moistening of the vegetation. While vegetation greenness follows the evolution of summer air temperature with a delay of one year, the vegetation moisture dynamics seems to better concur with annual total precipitation rather than summer precipitation, and also with annual snow water equivalent without lag. Both NDVI and NDMI show a much higher variability across discontinuous permafrost terrain compared to other types. Moreover, the analyses yielded an overall decrease in the area of permanent lakes and a noticeable increase in the area of seasonal lakes. While the first might be related to permafrost thawing, the latter seems to be connected to an increase of annual snow water equivalent. The general consistency between the indices of vegetation greenness and moisture based on satellite imagery and the climate data highlights the efficacy and reliability of combining Landsat satellite data, ERA-Interim reanalysis and meteorological data to monitor temporal dynamics of the land surface in Arctic areas.

The Impact of Permafrost Degradation on Lake Changes in the Endorheic Basin on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Lakes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have experienced significant changes, especially the prevailing lake expansion since 2000 in the endorheic basin. The influence of permafrost thawing on lake expansion is significant but rarely considered in previous studies. In this study, based on Landsat images and permafrost field data, the spatial-temporal area changes of lakes of more than 5 km2 in the endorheic basin on the QTP during 2000–2017 is examined and the impact of permafrost degradation on lake expansion is discussed. The main results are that permafrost characteristics and its degradation trend have close relationships with lake changes. Lake expansion in the endorheic basin showed a southwest–northeast transition from shrinking to stable to rapidly expanding, which corresponded well with the permafrost distribution from island-discontinuous to seasonally frozen ground to continuous permafrost. A dramatic lake expansion in continuous permafrost showed significant spatial differences; lakes expanded significantly in northern and eastern continuous permafrost with a higher ground ice content but slightly in southern continuous permafrost with a lower ground ice content. This spatial pattern was mainly attributed to the melting of ground ice in shallow permafrost associated with accelerating permafrost degradation. Whereas, some lakes in the southern zones of island-discontinuous permafrost were shrinking, which was mainly because the extended taliks arising from the intensified permafrost degradation have facilitated surface water and suprapermafrost groundwater discharge to subpermafrost groundwater and thereby drained the lakes. Based on observation and simulated data, the melting of ground ice at shallow depths below the permafrost table accounted for 21.2% of the increase in lake volume from 2000 to 2016.