Risk prediction models for symptomatic patients with bladder and kidney cancer: a systematic review

Hematuria Cancer Risk Score with Ultrasound Informs Cystoscopy Use in Patients with Hematuria

BACKGROUND

Hematuria is a cardinal symptom of urinary tract cancer and would require further investigations.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the ability of renal bladder ultrasound (RBUS) with the Hematuria Cancer Risk Score (HCRS) to inform cystoscopy use in patients with hematuria.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The development cohort comprised 1984 patients with hematuria from 40 UK hospitals (DETECT 1; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02676180) who received RBUS. An independent validation cohort comprised 500 consecutive patients referred to secondary care for a suspicion of bladder cancer.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Sensitivity and true negative of the HCRS and RBUS were assessed.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 134 (7%) and 36 (8%) patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively, had a diagnosis of urinary tract cancer. Validation of the HCRS achieves good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.727 (95% confidence interval 0.648-0.800) in the validation cohort with sensitivity of 95% for the identification of cancer. Utilizing the cutoff of 4.500 derived from the HCRS in combination with RBUS in the development cohort, 680 (34%) patients would have been spared cystoscopy at the cost of missing a G1 Ta bladder cancer and a urinary tract cancer patient, while 117 (25%) patients would have avoided cystoscopy at the cost of missing a single patient of G1 Ta bladder cancer with sensitivity for the identification of cancer of 97% in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The HCRS with RBUS offers good discriminatory ability in identifying patients who would benefit from cystoscopy, sparing selected patient cohorts from an invasive procedure.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The hematuria cancer risk score with renal bladder ultrasound allows for the triage of patients with hematuria who would benefit from visual examination of the bladder (cystoscopy). This resulted in 25% of patients safely omitting cystoscopy, which is an invasive procedure, and would lead to health care cost savings.

Risk prediction of bladder cancer among person with diabetes: A derivation and validation study

AIMS

This study aimed to devise and validate a clinical scoring system for risk prediction of bladder cancer to guide urgent cystoscopy evaluation among people with diabetes.

METHODS

People with diabetes who received cystoscopy from a large database in the Chinese population (2009-2018). We recruited a derivation cohort based on random sampling from 70% of all individuals. We used the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for independent risk factors to devise a risk score, ranging from 0 to 5: 0-2 'average risk' (AR) and 3-5 'high risk' (HR).

RESULTS

A total of 5905 people with diabetes, among whom 123 people with BCa were included. The prevalence rate in the derivation (n  = 4174) and validation cohorts (n  = 1731) was 2.2% and 1.8% respectively. Using the scoring system constructed, 79.6% and 20.4% in the derivation cohort were classified as AR and HR respectively. The prevalence rate in the AR and HR groups was 1.57% and 4.58% respectively. The risk score consisted of age (18-70: 0; >70: 2), male sex (1), ever/ex-smoker (1) and duration of diabetes (≥10 years: 1). Individuals in the HR group had 3.26-fold (95% CI = 1.65-6.44, p  = 0.025) increased prevalence of bladder than the AR group. The concordance (c-) statistics was 0.72, implying a good discriminatory capability of the risk score to stratify high-risk individuals who should consider earlier cystoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction algorithm may inform urgency of cystoscopy appointments, thus allowing a more efficient use of resources and contributing to early detection of BCa among people planned to be referred.

The sex gap in bladder cancer survival - a missing link in bladder cancer care?

The differences in bladder cancer outcomes between the sexes has again been highlighted. Uncommon among cancers, bladder cancer outcomes are notably worse for women than for men. Furthermore, bladder cancer is three to four times more common among men than among women. Factors that might explain these sex differences include understanding the importance of haematuria as a symptom of bladder cancer by both clinicians and patients, the resultant delays in diagnosis and referral of women with haematuria, and health-care access. Notably, these factors seem to have geographical variation and are not consistent across all health-care systems. Likewise, data relating to sex-specific treatment responses for patients with non-muscle-invasive or muscle-invasive bladder cancer are inconsistent. The influence of differences in the microbiome, bladder wall thickness and urine dwell times remain to be elucidated. The interplay of hormone signalling, gene expression, immunology and the tumour microenvironment remains complex but probably underpins the sexual dimorphism in disease incidence and stage and histology at presentation. The contribution of these biological phenomena to sex-specific outcome differences is probable, albeit potentially treatment-specific, and further understanding is required. Notwithstanding these aspects, we identify opportunities to harness biological differences to improve treatment outcomes, as well as areas of fundamental and translational research to pursue. At the level of policy and health-care delivery, improvements can be made across the domains of patient awareness, clinician education, referral pathways and guideline-based care. Together, we aim to highlight opportunities to close the sex gap in bladder cancer outcomes.