High prevalence of atrial fibrillation among Greenlanders with ischemic stroke - atrial fibrillation found in more than 30% of cases

Predicting Ischemic Stroke in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients: A Machine Learning Approach Using Electronic Medical Records

Background Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite advances in management, patients with ACS remain at a significant risk of developing ischemic stroke (IS), a serious complication associated with high mortality and long-term disability. The accurate prediction of stroke risk in ACS patients can facilitate timely interventions and improve clinical outcomes. Objective This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict ischemic stroke within one year of ACS diagnosis, using electronic medical records (EMRs) from a tertiary care hospital in Indonesia. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from 4,789 ACS patients treated at Dr. Sardjito Hospital between 2018 and 2022. Machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost, were trained and validated using patient demographics, comorbidities, and clinical variables. Model performance was assessed using precision, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC)-receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Results Among the study cohort, 212 patients (4.4%) developed ischemic stroke within one year. Logistic Regression demonstrated a balanced performance with a sensitivity of 65%, a specificity of 70%, and an AUC-ROC of 0.70. Random Forest and XGBoost models achieved higher sensitivities (94% and 95%, respectively) but had lower specificities (12% each). The most significant predictors of ischemic stroke included ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), age of ≥60 years, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. Conclusion The Logistic Regression model, with its balanced sensitivity and specificity, offers a reliable tool for predicting ischemic stroke in ACS patients. The implementation of this model in clinical practice could enhance risk stratification and inform personalized treatment strategies. Future studies should focus on prospective validation and the integration of additional clinical variables.

High Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation Found in the Capital of Greenland When Using Continuous Electrocardiogram Monitoring: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of conditions such as ischemic stroke, dementia, and heart failure, and early detection is crucial. In Greenland, ischemic strokes are common, and the prevalences of AF risk factors are increasing. Studies based on 30-second electrocardiograms (ECGs) and diagnosis codes so far have indicated either a low prevalence of AF or a prevalence comparable to that in other Western countries, such as Denmark. However, using short, single-point ECGs may underestimate the true prevalence, as especially paroxysmal AF can be missed. With this study, we aim to estimate the prevalence of AF using 3-5-day continuous Holter recordings among people in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we estimated the prevalence of AF among the population aged ≥ 50 years in Greenland's capital, Nuuk. We used an ePatch to record continuous ECGs for 3-5 days, and questionnaires to assess demographic data, comorbidities, medication, symptoms, and risk factors for AF.

Results

Of 226 participants (62% women), 21 (33% women) had either self-reported AF, AF on the recording, or both, equivalent to a prevalence of 9.3% (confidence interval [CI] 5.8-13.9). The age-stratified prevalence was 7.2% (CI 2.7-15.1) among those aged 50-59 years; 8.8% (CI 4.1-16.1) among those aged 60-69 years; and 18.2% (CI 7.0-35.5) among those aged ≥ 70 years.

Conclusions

This study provides a novel insight into AF prevalence in Nuuk, emphasizing the potential underestimation in previous studies. Continuous ECG monitoring revealed a higher prevalence, especially among the younger age groups, urging a reevaluation of diagnostic practices in this unique population.

Is the Pattern Changing? Atrial Fibrillation and Screening with Holter Electrocardiograms among Ischemic Stroke Patients in Greenland from 2016 to 2021

A standardized examination regime for ischemic stroke (IS) patients was implemented in Greenland in 2010. Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) of 32% was found among discharged IS patients from 2011 to 2012, and our study aims to estimate the use of Holter ECGs for AF diagnostics and the current prevalence of AF among IS patients in Greenland. Patients discharged from Queen Ingrid's Hospital in Nuuk between 2016 and 2021 with an ICD-10 diagnosis of IS or stroke without specification were included. Data on Holter recordings, age, gender, medical treatment with rivaroxaban or warfarin, and ICD-10 and ICPC codes for AF were extracted for each patient. The overall incidence of IS from 2016 to 2021 was 133/100,000 and unchanged since 2012. Sixty-eight of the study's IS patients (14.5%) had AF, and 46% of IS patients with Holter data accessible had a recording according to international recommendations. Our results indicate that fewer IS patients in Greenland have AF than previously. However, the insufficient use of Holter as a diagnostic tool may explain part of the drop, as well as improved preventive treatment with rivaroxaban among AF patients in Greenland. Regardless, IS remains common, and a focus on diagnostics and preventable risk factors should be maintained.

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation in Greenland: a register-based cross-sectional study based on disease classifications and prescriptions of oral anticoagulants

   Previous studies of the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Greenland are based on either single-point electrocardiograms (ECGs) or patients admitted with stroke. This study estimates the prevalence of AF based on disease classifications in the electronic medical record system (EMR) and prescriptions of oral anticoagulants (OACs). Patients given a diagnose classification code for AF or atrial flutter or prescribed the vitamin K antagonist Warfarin or the direct-acting oral anticoagulant Rivaroxaban were identified in the EMR. Descriptive data and selected laboratory values were extracted, and a minimum CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was calculated for the 790 patients identified in the EMR (66% men). A total prevalence of AF of 1.4% was found in the general population (1.8% among men and 1.0% among women), with a significantly lower prevalence among women younger than 70 years. There was a significant increase in AF-prevalence with advancing age (p<0.001) for both men and women. A minimum CHA₂DS₂-VASc was estimated and app. 10% of the patients may be undertreated with OACs. The prevalence of AF found in this study is higher than that found in previous studies in Greenland and comparable to the prevalence found in other Western countries, indicating that AF is common in Greenland.

Low prevalence of atrial fibrillation in ischaemic stroke: Underestimating a modifiable risk factor

INTRODUCTION

Cerebrovascular disease remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally. In South Africa, it was the fourth leading cause of death in 2016, responsible for 5.1% of all deaths - the leading cause of death in individuals 65 years and older. Atrial fibrillation accounts for 15% of all strokes and 25% are diagnosed when patients present with a stroke. We set out to determine the prevalence of atrial fibrillation in patients with confirmed ischaemic strokes in a district level hospital in the Western Cape, South Africa.

METHODS

This descriptive study was conducted at Mitchells Plain Hospital in Cape Town and data was collected over a one-year period. Patients diagnosed with a stroke were identified from an electronic patient register and relevant radiology and clinical data were sourced retrospectively. The diagnosis of ischaemic stroke was confirmed by a CT scan report and ECGs were independently screened by two Emergency Physicians. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Cape Town Human Research Ethics Committee [790/2018].

RESULTS

The proportion of adult patients with a stroke diagnosis was 2%. Of the included cases, 80% had ischaemic strokes and 11% had haemorrhagic strokes. 11% of all patients with ischaemic strokes had atrial fibrillation, 67% of those presumed new. A total of 60 (15%) of all patients with ischaemic stroke were aged 45 years or younger. The inpatient mortality rate was statistically higher in patients who had atrial fibrillation (26% vs 7%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

With the increasing population life expectancy, and prevalence of cardiovascular disease the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and its complications will increase. Since the risk of stroke related to atrial fibrillation can be reduced significantly by oral anticoagulation, further studies should aim to explore barriers and challenges to effective screening.

Addressing Multimorbidity and Polypharmacy in Individuals With Atrial Fibrillation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The objectives of this review were to (1) discuss how multimorbidity and polypharmacy contributes to the complexity of management among individuals with AF and (2) identify any interventions to manage polypharmacy in relation to AF.

RECENT FINDINGS

Based on the four landmark clinical trials of novel anticoagulants, the most common comorbidities with AF are hypertension, heart failure, diabetes, stroke and myocardial infarction. Polypharmacy was also found prevalent in 76.5% of patients with AF, with a median of six drugs per patient. Despite the consequences of polypharmacy in AF, there is very little evidence-based intervention designed to manage it. Hence, there is a need for further research to examine interventions to manage polypharmacy in relation to AF. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia requiring treatment in adults. Due to the structural and/or electrophysiological abnormalities that occur in AF, patients are managed through the use of prophylactic anticoagulant and rate and/or rhythm control medications. However, these medications are considered high risk and can increase the chances of medication misadventure. Additionally, AF rarely occurs in isolation and is known to coexist with multiple other medical comorbidities, i.e. multimorbidity. This also increases the number of medications, i.e. polypharmacy and pill burden which results in treatment non-compliance to prescribed therapy.