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Fernandez-Felix BM, Barca LV, Garcia-Esquinas E, Correa-Pérez A, Fernández-Hidalgo N, Muriel A, Lopez-Alcalde J, Álvarez-Diaz N, Pijoan JI, Ribera A, Elorza EN, Muñoz P, Fariñas MDC, Goenaga MÁ, Zamora J. Prognostic models for mortality after cardiac surgery in patients with infective endocarditis: a systematic review and aggregation of prediction models. Clin Microbiol Infect 2021; 27:1422-1430. [PMID: 34620380 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2021.05.051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are several prognostic models to estimate the risk of mortality after surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE). However, these models incorporate different predictors and their performance is uncertain. OBJECTIVE We systematically reviewed and critically appraised all available prediction models of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing surgery for IE, and aggregated them into a meta-model. DATA SOURCES We searched Medline and EMBASE databases from inception to June 2020. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA We included studies that developed or updated a prognostic model of postoperative mortality in patient with IE. METHODS We assessed the risk of bias of the models using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) and we aggregated them into an aggregate meta-model based on stacked regressions and optimized it for a nationwide registry of IE patients. The meta-model performance was assessed using bootstrap validation methods and adjusted for optimism. RESULTS We identified 11 prognostic models for postoperative mortality. Eight models had a high risk of bias. The meta-model included weighted predictors from the remaining three models (EndoSCORE, specific ES-I and specific ES-II), which were not rated as high risk of bias and provided full model equations. Additionally, two variables (age and infectious agent) that had been modelled differently across studies, were estimated based on the nationwide registry. The performance of the meta-model was better than the original three models, with the corresponding performance measures: C-statistics 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82), calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI 0.86-1.13) and calibration-in-the-large -0.05 (95% CI -0.20 to 0.11). CONCLUSIONS The meta-model outperformed published models and showed a robust predictive capacity for predicting the individualized risk of postoperative mortality in patients with IE. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020192602).
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Affiliation(s)
- Borja M Fernandez-Felix
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Laura Varela Barca
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Fundacion Jimenez Diaz University Hospital, Madrid, Spain
| | - Esther Garcia-Esquinas
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; IdiPaz (Hospital Universitario La Paz-Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain
| | - Andrea Correa-Pérez
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain; Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain
| | - Nuria Fernández-Hidalgo
- Servei de Malalties Infeccioses, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; Red Española de Investigación en Patología Infecciosa (REIPI), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alfonso Muriel
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Jesus Lopez-Alcalde
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; Institute for Complementary and Integrative Medicine, University Hospital Zurich and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Noelia Álvarez-Diaz
- Medical Library, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jose I Pijoan
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Hospital Universitario Cruces/OSI EEC, Barakaldo, Spain; Biocruces-Bizkaia Health Research Institute, Barakaldo, Spain
| | - Aida Ribera
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Research Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Enrique Navas Elorza
- Department of Infectology, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain
| | - Patricia Muñoz
- Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Service, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, CIBER Enfermedades Respiratorias-CIBERES, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Del Carmen Fariñas
- Infectious Diseases Service, Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla-IDIVAL, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Miguel Ángel Goenaga
- Infectious Diseases Service, Hospital Universitario Donostia, IIS Biodonostia, OSI Donostialdea, San Sebastián, Spain
| | - Javier Zamora
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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Scheggi V, Merilli I, Marcucci R, Del Pace S, Olivotto I, Zoppetti N, Ceschia N, Andrei V, Alterini B, Stefàno PL, Marchionni N. Predictors of mortality and adverse events in patients with infective endocarditis: a retrospective real world study in a surgical centre. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2021; 21:28. [PMID: 33435885 PMCID: PMC7802147 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-021-01853-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose Mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) is still high, and the long term prognosis remains uncertain. This study aimed to identify predictors of long-term mortality for any cause, adverse event rate, relapse rate, valvular and ventricular dysfunction at follow-up, in a real-world surgical centre.
Methods We retrospectively analyzed 363 consecutive episodes of IE (123 women, 34%) admitted to our department with a definite diagnosis of non-device-related IE. Median follow-up duration was 2.9 years. Primary endpoints were predictors of mortality, recurrent endocarditis, and major non-fatal adverse events (hospitalization for any cardiovascular cause, pace-maker implantation, new onset of atrial fibrillation, sternal dehiscence), and ventricular and valvular dysfunction at follow-up.
Results Multivariate analysis independent predictors of mortality showed age (HR per unit 1.031, p < 0.003), drug abuse (HR 3.5, p < 0.002), EUROSCORE II (HR per unit 1.017, p < 0.0006) and double valve infection (HR 2.3, p < 0.001) to be independent predictors of mortality, while streptococcal infection remained associated with a better prognosis (HR 0.5, p < 0.04). Major non-fatal adverse events were associated with age (HR 1.4, p < 0.022). New episodes of infection were correlated with S aureus infection (HR 4.8, p < 0.001), right-sided endocarditis (HR 7.4, p < 0.001), spondylodiscitis (HR 6.8, p < 0.004) and intravenous drug abuse (HR 10.3, p < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, only drug abuse was an independent predictor of new episodes of endocarditis (HR 8.5, p < 0.001). Echocardiographic follow-up, available in 95 cases, showed a worsening of left ventricular systolic function (p < 0.007); severe valvular dysfunction at follow-up was reported only in 4 patients, all of them had mitral IE (p < 0.03). Conclusions The present study highlights some clinical, readily available factors that can be useful to stratify the prognosis of patients with IE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentina Scheggi
- Division of Cardiovascular and Perioperative Medicine, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50143, Florence, Italy.
| | - Irene Merilli
- Division of Cardiovascular and Perioperative Medicine, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50143, Florence, Italy
| | - Rossella Marcucci
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Stefano Del Pace
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Iacopo Olivotto
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Nicola Zoppetti
- Institute of Applied Physics "Nello Carrara" (IFAC), National Research Council, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
| | - Nicole Ceschia
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Valentina Andrei
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Bruno Alterini
- Division of Cardiovascular and Perioperative Medicine, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50143, Florence, Italy
| | - Pier Luigi Stefàno
- Division of Cardiac Surgery, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Niccolò Marchionni
- Division of General Cardiology, Cardiothoracovascular Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
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