Prognosis following transcatheter arterial embolization for 121 patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with or without a history of treatment

Prognostic related gene index for predicting survival and immunotherapeutic effect of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common malignant liver tumor. It is an aggressive disease with high mortality rate. In this study, we investigated a new prognosis-related gene index (PRGI) that can predict the survival and efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with HCC. RNA-seq data and clinical data of HCC samples were obtained from the cancer genome atlas and ICGC databases. Prognosis-related genes were obtained using log-rank tests and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on the overall survival rate of patients with prognosis-related genes and multiple clinicopathological factors, and a nomogram was constructed. A PRGI was then constructed based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator or multivariate Cox Iterative Regression. The possible correlation between PRGI and immune cell infiltration or immunotherapy efficacy was discussed. Eight genes were identified to construct the PRGI. PRGI can predict the infiltration of immune cells into the tumor microenvironment of HCC and the response to immunotherapy. PRGI can accurately predict the survival rate of patients with HCC, reflect the immune microenvironment, and predict the efficacy of immunotherapy.

Simple Scoring System for Predicting TACE Unsuitable among Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients in the Multiple Systemic Treatment Era

BACKGROUND/AIM

With the development of systemic treatment methods for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC), the concept of unsuitable for transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) has become important. This study aimed to establish a simple predictive scoring system for determining TACE unsuitable status.

MATERIALS/METHODS

From 1998 to 2015, 196 patients with intermediate-stage uHCC with Child-Pugh A (score 5:6 = 108:88) and given TACE as the initial treatment were enrolled. At the baseline, tumor burden (Milan criteria-out, up-to-7 in/out, and up-to-11 in/out: 0-2 points) and modified albumin-bilirubin grade 1/2a or 2b (0-1 point) were added to determine the score for TACE unsuitable (CITRUS-MICAN score; low <2 and high ≥2). In addition, a previously reported tumor marker (TM) score, in which alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was ≥100 ng/mL, fucosylated AFP ≥10%, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin ≥100 mAU/mL (each 1 point) (total 0, 1, or ≥2 points), was used for additionally evaluating tumor malignancy potential. Prognosis was retrospectively evaluated based on those scores.

RESULTS

Median survival time (MST) was better for low compared to high CITRUS-MICAN score (42.0 vs. 26.4 months) (p = 0.002). A 2-step evaluation using the combination of CITRUS-MICAN and TM scores showed an MST of 43.2 months for low CITRUS-MICAN/TM score 0/1 (rank-A) and 39.6 months for low CITRUS-MICAN/TM score ≥2 (rank-B2), while it was 46.8 months for high CITRUS-MICAN/TM score 0 (rank-B1), 28.8 months for high CITRUS-MICAN/TM score 1 (rank-B2), and 22.8 months for high CITRUS-MICAN/TM score ≥2 (rank-C). For rank-A cases (n = 51), MST was 43.2 months, while it was 46.8 months for rank-B1 (n = 12), 31.2 months for rank-B2 (n = 82), and 22.8 months for rank-C (n = 51) (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The results showed that rank-C indicates absolute TACE unsuitable status. For rank-A patients, good prognosis with TACE can be expected, while TACE refractoriness status during the clinical course should be carefully evaluated so as to anticipate the appropriate timing for switching to systemic treatment in rank-B1 and -B2 patients.

Development of TACE Refractoriness Scores in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: To identify the independent risk factors for transarterial embolization (TACE) refractoriness and to develop a novel TACE refractoriness score and nomogram for predicting TACE refractoriness in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: Between March 2006 and March 2016, HCC patients who underwent TACE monotherapy as initial treatment at two hospitals formed the study cohort and validation cohort. The criteria of TACE refractoriness followed the Japan Society of Hepatology 2014 version of TACE refractoriness. In the study cohort, the independent risk factors for TACE refractoriness were identified, and TACE refractoriness score and nomogram were then developed. The accuracy of the systems was validated externally in the validation cohort.

Results: In total, 113 patients from hospital A formed the study cohort and 122 patients from hospital B formed the validation cohort. In the study cohort, 82.3% of the patients (n = 93) developed TACE refractoriness with a median overall survival (OS) of 540 days (95% CI, 400.8–679.1), and the remaining 20 patients in the TACE-non-refractory group had a median OS of 1,257 days (95% CI, 338.8–2,175.2) (p = 0.019). The median time for developing TACE refractoriness was 207 days (95% CI, 134.8–279.2), and a median number of two TACE procedures were performed after refractoriness developed. The independent risk factors for TACE refractoriness were the number of tumors and bilobular invasion of HCC. TACE refractoriness scores <3.5 indicated a lower incidence of TACE refractoriness, whereas scores >3.5 points indicated a higher incidence (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, 77.9% of the patients (n = 95) developed TACE refractoriness with a median OS of 568 days (95% CI, 416.3–719.7), and a median OS of 1,324 days was observed in the TACE-non-refractory group (n = 27; 95% CI, 183.5–2,464.5).

Conclusions: TACE refractoriness impairs the OS of HCC patients. The number of tumors and bilobular invasion status were independent risk factors for TACE refractoriness. The TACE refractoriness score can be an effective tool and easy approach to predict the risk of TACE refractoriness status.

Residual convolutional neural network for predicting response of transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma from CT imaging

Background

We attempted to train and validate a model of deep learning for the preoperative prediction of the response of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

Method

All computed tomography (CT) images were acquired for 562 patients from the Nan Fang Hospital (NFH), 89 patients from Zhu Hai Hospital Affiliated with Jinan University (ZHHAJU), and 138 patients from the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYUCC). We built a predictive model from the outputs using the transfer learning techniques of a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet50). The prediction accuracy for each patch was revaluated in two independent validation cohorts.

Results

In the training set (NFH), the deep learning model had an accuracy of 84.3% and areas under curves (AUCs) of 0.97, 0.96, 0.95, and 0.96 for complete response (CR), partial response (PR), stable disease (SD), and progressive disease (PD), respectively. In the other two validation sets (ZHHAJU and SYUCC), the deep learning model had accuracies of 85.1% and 82.8% for CR, PR, SD, and PD. The ResNet50 model also had high AUCs for predicting the objective response of TACE therapy in patches and patients of three cohorts. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the ResNet50 model had a high net benefit in the two validation cohorts.

Conclusion

The deep learning model presented a good performance for predicting the response of TACE therapy and could help clinicians in better screening patients with HCC who can benefit from the interventional treatment.

Key Points

• Therapy response of TACE can be predicted by a deep learning model based on CT images.

• The probability value from a trained or validation deep learning model showed significant correlation with different therapy responses.

• Further improvement is necessary before clinical utilization.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00330-019-06318-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: survival rate and prognostic factors

BACKGROUND

The role of prognostic variables in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is controversial.

AIMS

To evaluate the survival of patients with HCC on cirrhosis treated with TACE and to analyse the prognostic factors affecting survival.

METHODS

From 1996 to 2006, 580 consecutive patients with HCC in cirrhosis were observed. Of these 194 patients underwent TACE. The primary end-point was survival. Independent predictors of survival were identified using the Cox model.

RESULTS

The cumulative 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 96%, 60%, and 41%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed significant reduction of survival among patients with serum bilirubin values >2mg/dl compared to patients with values <2mg/dl (Hazard ratio 3.84; CI 95% 1.70-8.66; p-value=0.001). Multivariate analysis performed in the group of patients treated with TACE alone showed that elevated serum bilirubin (Hazard ratio 2.96; CI 95% 1.20-7.3; p-value 0.02) and incomplete tumour response (Hazard ratio 2.88; CI 95% 1.18-7.05; p-value 0.02) are correlated with a worse outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

TACE was well tolerated and overall survival rate was 41% after 5 years. Complete tumour response and serum bilirubin <2mg/dl were identified as predictors of survival.

Role of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma: prognostication, treatment monitoring or both?

Despite recent breakthroughs in the treatment for both early and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the development of markers for prognostication and treatment monitoring remains to be explored. Serum alpha-fetoprotein has been frequently measured at diagnosis and serially during treatment by clinicians for decades, with an aim for prognostication of disease and monitoring of treatment response. In this review, the evidence regarding the prognostic value of serum alpha-fetoprotein and the value of serial alpha-fetoprotein in the monitoring of treatment efficacy will be discussed, with emphasis on recent data.

Radiofrequency ablation therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

With the aging of society, the number of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing in Japan. The Government of Japan defines elderly as being over 65 and has divided the elderly into two stages: the first elderly stage (< 75 years old) and the second elderly stage (> or = 75). We investigated the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation therapy (RFA) in patients in the second elderly stage in comparison with other HCC patients, retrospectively.

METHODS

Two hundred six patients with HCC, who were within the Milan criteria, with low-grade performance status (0 or 1) and a Child-Pugh classification of A or B were enrolled. All were treated with RFA from January 2000 to December 2008 as an initial therapy and were divided into elderly HCC group (e-HCC group; > or = 75, n = 63) and non e-HCC group (< 75, n = 143), and their clinical data and survival rates were compared.

RESULTS

Age and the level of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist (PIVKA-II) were higher in the e-HCC group as compared with the non e-HCC group (78.3 +/- 3.2 vs 64.2 +/- 7.5 years, 676.3 +/- 2643.7 vs 142.4 +/- 442.2 mAU/mL: P < 0.01, respectively). There were no significant differences for Child-Pugh class, tumor node metastasis stage, and Japan Integrated Stage score and in survival rates after 3, and 5 years between the groups (e-HCC group: 82.5% and 49.7%, respectively; non e-HCC group: 78.3% and 57.5%, respectively). There were no severe complications in the e-HCC group.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly HCC patients, who have good performance status, should be treated in the same manner and with the same strategy as young HCC patients.

Clinical translation in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma following the introduction of contrast-enhanced ultrasonography with Sonazoid

Some hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) nodules are detectable with dynamic computed tomography, but not by conventional B-mode ultrasonography (US). Contrast-enhanced US (CEUS) with Sonazoid, a new injectable contrast agent, has been used in Japan since January 2007. The primary advantage of this agent is the ability to maintain observations continuously in the Kupffer phase. We assessed the clinical role of CEUS with Sonazoid for radiofrequency ablation (RFA). From January 2005 to December 2008, 1142 patients were treated with surgical resection, RFA, percutaneous ethanol injection or transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, following the exclusion of those patients treated with chemotherapy or supportive care. The patients included in the study were divided into the pre-CEUS (n=451, 2005 and 2006) and post-CEUS (n=691, 2007 and 2008) groups. Clinical background (e.g., etiology, Child-Pugh classification, tumor node metastasis stage, percentage of patients matched with Milan criteria and selected therapies) was compared between the two groups. In addition, naïve cases were compared between the groups. There were 130 naïve HCC cases in the pre-CEUS group and 171 in the post-CEUS group. Although there were no significant differences for clinical background, the percentage of RFA cases increased from 21 (n=95) to 32% (n=219) and from 32 (n=41) to 52% (n=89) for total and naïve subjects, respectively, after CEUS was introduced (P<0.01). In naïve cases treated with RFA, tumor numbers in the post-CEUS group were larger than those of the pre-CEUS group (1.15±0.48 vs. 1.40±0.67; P<0.01). CEUS with Sonazoid, therefore, makes it possible to perform RFA in a considerable number of HCC cases that would otherwise be invisible by conventional B-mode US.