Predictors of poor outcomes in patients with wild mushroom-induced acute liver injury

Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with amanita phalloides poisoning

Amanita phalloides poisoning, renowned for its high mortality rates, is one of the most serious food safety issue in certain regions worldwide. Assessment of prognosis and development of more efficacious therapeutic strategies are critical importance for amanita phalloides poisoning patients. The aim of the study is to establish a nomogram to predict the clinical outcome of amanita phalloides poisoning patients based on the independent risk factor for prognosis. Herein, between January 2013 and September 2023, a cohort of 149 patients diagnosed with amanita phalloides poisoning was enrolled and randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts, comprising 102 and 47 patients, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for morality of amanita phalloides poisoning patients in training cohort. Subsequently, a nomogram model was constructed to visually display the risk prediction model. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was verified by the validation cohort. The C index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plots were used to assessed the performance of nomogram. The clinical utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). In the present study, the results showed that hepatic encephalopathy (HE), upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB), AST, and PT were the independent risk factors associated with the mortality of amantia phalloides poisoning patients. We constructed a new nomogram to evaluate the probability of death induced by amantia phalloides poisoning. The AUC for the prediction accuracy of the nomogram was 0.936 for the training cohort and 0.929 for the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probability matched the actual likelihood. The results of the DCA suggested that the nomogram has a good potential for clinical application. In summary, we developed a new nomogram to assess the probability of mortality for amanita phalloides poisoning patients. This nomogram might facilitate clinicians in making more efficacious treatment strategies for patients with amanita phalloides poisoning.

Association of direct bilirubin to total bilirubin ratio with 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Hyperbilirubinemia occurs when the liver fails to process bilirubin properly. A disproportionate increase in direct bilirubin indicates a decreased ability of the hepatocytes to uptake and/or convert bilirubin, which may impact the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the association of direct bilirubin to total bilirubin ratio (DB/TB) with outcomes in patients with ACLF remains unclear.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted in West China Hospital of Sichuan University to assess the association between DB/TB and 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) ACLF criteria. Ordinal logistic regression models, linear regression models, and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the association between DB/TB and hepatic encephalopathy, disease severity, and outcome, respectively.

Results

A total of 258 patients with ACLF were included. The surviving patients were less likely to have liver cirrhosis and comorbidities, and their disease severities were milder than the dead. DB/TB was negatively correlated to cerebral score for hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted odds ratio: 0.01, p = 0.043), and disease severity (adjusted standardized coefficients: -0.42~-0.31, all p < 0.001), respectively. A significant 90-day mortality risk of DB/TB was observed [all adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) < 0.20 and all p ≤ 0.001]. Compared with patients with DB/TB < 0.80, patients with ACLF and DB/TB ≥ 0.80 had much lower 90-day mortality risk (all aHR < 0.75 and all p < 0.01).

Conclusion

DB/TB could be an independent risk factor to predict the short-term prognosis in patients with ACLF. More attention should be paid to patients with lower DB/TB due to their poorer prognosis and more urgent need for liver transplantation.Clinical trial registration:http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=56960, identifier, ChiCTR2000035013.

Early Triage of Critically Ill Adult Patients With Mushroom Poisoning: Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

Early triage of patients with mushroom poisoning is essential for administering precise treatment and reducing mortality. To our knowledge, there has been no established method to triage patients with mushroom poisoning based on clinical data.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this work was to construct a triage system to identify patients with mushroom poisoning based on clinical indicators using several machine learning approaches and to assess the prediction accuracy of these strategies.

METHODS

In all, 567 patients were collected from 5 primary care hospitals and facilities in Enshi, Hubei Province, China, and divided into 2 groups; 322 patients from 2 hospitals were used as the training cohort, and 245 patients from 3 hospitals were used as the test cohort. Four machine learning algorithms were used to construct the triage model for patients with mushroom poisoning. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, sensitivity, specificity, and other representative statistics. Feature contributions were evaluated using Shapley additive explanations.

RESULTS

Among several machine learning algorithms, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) showed the best discriminative ability in 5-fold cross-validation (AUC=0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.90) and the test set (AUC=0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.96). In the test set, the XGBoost model had a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI 0.81-0.99) and a specificity of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.85), whereas the physicians' assessment had a sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI 0.72-0.95) and a specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

The 14-factor XGBoost model for the early triage of mushroom poisoning can rapidly and accurately identify critically ill patients and will possibly serve as an important basis for the selection of treatment options and referral of patients, potentially reducing patient mortality and improving clinical outcomes.

Prevalence, severity, duration and resolution of cholestasis after acute liver failure

Objective

Persistent cholestasis may follow acute liver failure (ALF), but its course remains unknown. We aimed to describe the prevalence, onset, severity, duration and resolution of post-ALF cholestasis.

Design

Cohort of 127 adult patients with ALF at a liver transplantation centre identified using electronic databases. We obtained laboratory data every 6 hours for the first week, daily until day 30 and weekly, when documented, until day 180.

Results

Median age was 40.7 (IQR 31.0–52.4) years, median peak alanine aminotransferase level was 5494 (2521–8819) U/L and 87 (68.5%) cases had paracetamol toxicity. Overall, 12.6% underwent transplantation (3.4% for paracetamol vs 32.5% for non-paracetamol; p<0.001). Ninety-day mortality was 20.7% for paracetamol versus 30.0% for non-paracetamol patients. All non-transplanted survivors reached a bilirubin level>50 µmol/L, which peaked 3.5 (1.0–10.1) days after admission at 169.0 (80.0–302.0) µmol/L. At hospital discharge, 18.8% of patients had normal bilirubin levels and, at a median follow-up time from admission to last measurement of 16 (10-30) days, 46.9% had normal levels. Similarly, there was an increase in alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (207.0 (148.0–292.5) U/L) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (336.0 (209.5–554.5) U/L) peaking at 4.5 days, with normalised values in 40.3% and 8.3% at hospital discharge.

Conclusion

Post-ALF cholestasis is ubiquitous. Bilirubin, ALP and GGT peak at 3 to 5 days and, return to baseline in the minority of patients at median follow-up of 16 days. These data inform clinical expectations of the natural course of this condition.

Lactate and blood ammonia on admission as biomarkers to predict the prognosis of patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver failure: a retrospective study

The diagnosis of liver damage induced by mushroom poisoning is still challenging. This study aims to screen the early biological indexes that could predict acute mushroom poisoning with liver damage. The patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver damage admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University，China from July 2007 to August 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 66 patients were enrolled in this study, with 44 and 22 patients in the liver injury group and liver failure group, respectively. Ten patients in the liver failure group died, with a mortality of 45.5% in this group. Multivariable Cox regression showed that the blood ammonia (NH3) and lactic acid (Lac) at the time of admission were independently associated with the in-hospital time to death for patients with liver failure induced by mushroom poisoning. Lactate and blood ammonia at the time of admission could be used to predict the prognosis of patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver failure.

Reviewing the world's edible mushroom species: A new evidence-based classification system

Wild mushrooms are a vital source of income and nutrition for many poor communities and of value to recreational foragers. Literature relating to the edibility of mushroom species continues to expand, driven by an increasing demand for wild mushrooms, a wider interest in foraging, and the study of traditional foods. Although numerous case reports have been published on edible mushrooms, doubt and confusion persist regarding which species are safe and suitable to consume. Case reports often differ, and the evidence supporting the stated properties of mushrooms can be incomplete or ambiguous. The need for greater clarity on edible species is further underlined by increases in mushroom-related poisonings. We propose a system for categorizing mushroom species and assigning a final edibility status. Using this system, we reviewed 2,786 mushroom species from 99 countries, accessing 9,783 case reports, from over 1,100 sources. We identified 2,189 edible species, of which 2,006 can be consumed safely, and a further 183 species which required some form of pretreatment prior to safe consumption or were associated with allergic reactions by some. We identified 471 species of uncertain edibility because of missing or incomplete evidence of consumption, and 76 unconfirmed species because of unresolved, differing opinions on edibility and toxicity. This is the most comprehensive list of edible mushrooms available to date, demonstrating the huge number of mushrooms species consumed. Our review highlights the need for further information on uncertain and clash species, and the need to present evidence in a clear, unambiguous, and consistent manner.

Coagulation abnormalities, bleeding, thrombosis, and management of patients with acute liver failure in Australia and New Zealand

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To study the management of coagulation and hematological derangements among severe acute liver failure (ALF) patients in Australia and New Zealand liver transplant intensive care units (ICUs).

METHODS

Analysis of key baseline characteristics, etiology, coagulation and hematological tests, use of blood products, thrombotic complications, and clinical outcomes during the first ICU week.

RESULTS

We studied 62 ALF patients. The first day median peak international normalized ratio was 5.5 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 3.8-8.7), median longest activated partial thromboplastin time was 62 s (IQR 44-87), and median lowest fibrinogen was 1.1 (IQR 0.8-1.6) g/L. Fibrinogen was only measured in 85% of patients, which was less than other tests (P < 0.0001). Median initial lowest platelet count was 83 (IQR 41-122) × 10⁹ /L. Overall, 58% of patients received fresh frozen plasma, 40% cryoprecipitate, 35% platelets, and 15% prothrombin complex concentrate. Patients with bleeding complications (19%) had more severe overall hypofibrinogenemia and thrombocytopenia. Thrombotic complications were less common (10% of patients), were not associated with consistent patterns of abnormal hemostasis, and were not immediately preceded by clotting factor administration and half occurred only after liver transplantation surgery.

CONCLUSION

In ALF patients admitted to dedicated Australia and New Zealand ICUs, fibrinogen was measured less frequently than other coagulation parameters but, together with platelets, appeared more relevant to bleeding risk. Blood products and procoagulant factors were administered to most patients at variable levels of hemostatic derangement, and bleeding complications were more common than thrombotic complications. This epidemiologic information and practice variability provide baseline data for the design and powering of interventional studies.

Diagnosis of acute intoxications in critically ill patients: focus on biomarkers - part 2: markers for specific intoxications

In medical intensive care units, acute intoxications contribute to a large proportion of all patients. Epidemiology and a basic overview on this topic were presented in part one. The purpose of this second part regarding toxicological biomarkers in the ICU setting focuses on specific poisons and toxins. Following the introduction of anion and osmol gap in part one, it's relevance in toxic alcohols and other biomarkers for these poisonings are presented within this publication. Furthermore, the role of markers in the blood, urine and cerebrospinal fluid for several intoxications is evaluated. Specific details are presented, amongst others, for cardiovascular drug poisoning, paracetamol (acetaminophen), ethanol, pesticides, ricin and yew tree intoxications. Detailed biomarkers and therapeutic decision tools are shown for carbon monoxide (CO) and cyanide (CN^-) poisoning. Also, biomarkers in environmental toxicological situations such as mushroom poisoning and scorpion stings are presented.

A Report on Mushrooms Poisonings in 2018 at the Apulian Regional Poison Center

BACKGROUND: The “Ospedali Riuniti’s Poison Center” (Foggia, Italy) provides a 24 h telephone consultation in clinical toxicology to the general public and health-care professionals, including drug information and assessment of the effects of commercial and industrial chemical substances, toxins but also plants and mushrooms. It participates in diagnosis and treatment of the exposure to toxins and toxicants, also throughout its ambulatory activity. METHODS: To report data on the epidemiology of mushroom poisoning in people contacting our Poison Center we made computerized queries and descriptive analyses of the medical records database of the mushroom poisoning in the poison center of Foggia from January 2018 to December 2018. RESULTS: A total of 69 mushroom poisonings cases were recorded in our poison center the period from January 2018 to December 2018. Our poison center serves all the Italian territory but most of the calls about mushrooms poisonings, in 2018, came from Apulia, Campania, and Basilicata, which are bordering regions of Italy. About 80.2 % of calls were made by the physicians (particularly, 73.9% by emergency room, 18.8% and 4.3% by hospital ward, and 1.4% both by a general practitioner and by the American Sign Language [“ASL”]) and 18.8% by the public. Cooked mushrooms were involved in all the cases (single and multiple species). The most frequent calls were made in the period between September 2018 and December 2018; in the other months, there were only sporadic cases. All were intentional exposures in adults (>18 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mushroom exposures and poisonings are an important problem in those regions of Italy where many people adventuring in mushroom’s research without any license. This fact has contributed substantially to morbidity due to mushroom poisoning. Our database is a valuable national resource for the collection and monitoring of Italian mushroom poisoning cases in 2018 but limited to the people who called our poison center, which is one of the nine poisons centers in Italy. And since in most cases, the mushroom’s species remains unknown, it is important to quickly recognize symptoms and most frequent species involved on the Italian territory, in particular in South Italy.

CLIF-OF >9 predicts poor outcome in patients with Amanita phalloides poisoning

PURPOSE

Amanita phalloides poisoning with high mortality is rare but serious. The aim of this study is to identify the risk indicators of death in patients with Amanita phalloides poisoning and a good score tool to predict prognosis.

METHODS

In this respective study (1/2009-12/2018), the patients (n = 105) with Amanita phalloides poisoning from two hospitals of China Medical University who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria were included. The laboratory markers and the clinical scoring systems including Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), Liver injury and Failure evaluation (LiFe), Chronic liver failure-organ failure score system (CLIF-OF), King's College criteria (KCH criteria), Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Platelet-bilirubin-albumin (PALBI) within 24 h of admission to the two hospitals were analyzed and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were also performed regarding the prediction of death.

RESULTS

The data analysis indicated that high international normalized ratio (INR) (>3.6, AUC = 0.941) and plasma ammonia (>95.1 μmol/L, AUC = 0.805) were closely associated with mortality after multivariate logistic regression. CLIF-OF (>9) within 24 h with really good diagnostic accuracy (>90%) significantly outperformed the other scores in predicting mortality.

CONCLUSION

CLIF-OF (>9) within 24 h of admission is considered as a satisfactory and practical tool to predict a poor outcome of Amanita phalloides poisoning.

Prognostic value of decision criteria for emergency liver transplantation in patients with wild mushroom induced acute liver injury

BACKGROUND

The reported mortality rate of mushroom-induced acute liver failure with conventional treatment is 1.4%-16.9%. Emergency liver transplantation may be indicated and can be the only curative treatment option. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of criteria for emergency liver transplantation in predicting 28-day mortality in patients with mushroom-induced acute liver injury.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed between January 2005 and December 2015. All adult patients aged≥18 years admitted with mushroom intoxication at our emergency department were evaluated. All patients with acute liver injury, defined as elevation of serum liver enzymes (>5 times the upper limit of normal, ULN) or moderate coagulopathy (INR > 2.0) were included. The ability of the King's College, Ganzert's, and Escudié's criteria to predict 28-day mortality was evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 23 patients with acute liver injury following mushroom intoxication, 10 (43.5%) developed acute liver failure and subsequently died. The mean time interval from ingestion to death was 11.3 ± 6.6 days. Eight patients fulfilled Ganzert's criteria, while 10 patients fulfilled the King's College and Escudié's criteria for emergency liver transplantation. King's College and Escudié's criteria had 100% accuracy in predicting 28-day mortality; however, Escudié's criteria were able to identify fatal cases earlier.

CONCLUSIONS

Escudié's criteria demonstrated the best performance with 100% accuracy and the ability to promptly identify fatal cases of mushroom-induced acute liver failure.

Modern Management of Acute Liver Failure

Acute liver failure is a rare but life-threatening disease that can lead to progressive encephalopathy, intracranial hypertension, and multiorgan failure. In the developed world, the most common cause remains acetaminophen overdose, but there are still many cases in which there is acute liver failure of unknown etiology. The mainstay of acute liver failure management remains supportive care in the critical care setting. If supportive treatment does not stabilize the disease process, the patient may require emergent liver transplantation. This article summarizes the current management of acute liver failure.