Is the treatment outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma inferior in elderly patients?

Machine learning-based model for predicting tumor recurrence after interventional therapy in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with low preoperative platelet-albumin-bilirubin score

Introduction

This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with low preoperative platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) scores after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with local ablation treatment.

Methods

We gathered clinical data from 632 HBV-related HCC patients who received the combination treatment at Beijing You'an Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, from January 2014 to January 2020. The patients were divided into two groups based on their PALBI scores: low PALBI group (n=247) and high PALBI group (n=385). The low PALBI group was then divided into two cohorts: training cohort (n=172) and validation cohort (n=75). We utilized eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random survival forest (RSF), and multivariate Cox analysis to pinpoint the risk factors for RFS. Then, we developed a nomogram based on the screened factors and assessed its risk stratification capabilities and predictive performance.

Results

The study finally identified age, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and prothrombin time activity (PTA) as key predictors. The three variables were included to develop the nomogram for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS of HCC patients. We confirmed the nomogram's ability to effectively discern high and low risk patients, as evidenced by Kaplan-Meier curves. We further corroborated the excellent discrimination, consistency, and clinical utility of the nomogram through assessments using the C-index, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Conclusion

Our study successfully constructed a robust nomogram, effectively predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS for HBV-related HCC patients with low preoperative PALBI scores after TACE combined with local ablation therapy.

GALAD score as a prognostic model for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after local ablation

BACKGROUND

Currently, the high recurrence rate still forms severe challenges in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. The GALAD score, including age, gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) was developed as a diagnostic model. However, evidence is still lacking to confirm the capability of the GALAD score to predict the recurrence of HCC.

METHODS

This study included 390 HCC patients after local ablation at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022. Firstly, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the predictive capability of the GALAD score. Then, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve and log-rank test were used to compare the prognosis between two groups classified by GALAD score. Finally, a nomogram for high-risk patients was established by Lasso-Cox regression. It was assessed by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The ROC curve (AUC: 0.749) and KM curve showed the GALAD score had good predictive ability and could clearly stratify patients into two groups through the risk of recurrence. Prognostic factors selected by Lasso-Cox regression contained tumor number, tumor size, and globulin. The nomogram for high-risk patients showed reliable discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

This research displayed that the GALAD score is an effective model for predicting the recurrence of HCC. Meanwhile, we found the poor prognosis of the high-risk group and created a nomogram for these patients.

The prognostic nutritional index and tumor pathological characteristics predict the prognosis of elderly patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma after surgery

The elderly comprises over one-third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, however, they are not adequately represented in prognostic studies. The study aims to determine the prognostic significance of the preoperative prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and develop nomograms for predicting their recurrence-free and overall survival (RFS and OS). The study consisted of 282 elderly patients (aged ≥ 65 years) with early-stage HCC (China Liver Cancer Staging System: I-IIA) after curative resection (R0). They were randomly divided into a training (n = 197) and a test cohort (n = 85). The patients were stratified into two groups: PNI-low (PNI ≤ 49.05) and PNI-high (PNI > 49.05) based on a cut-off value. Most patients' demographics and perioperative outcomes were comparable, while patients in the PNI-high group were younger (P = 0.002), heavier (P < 0.001), and had lower comorbidity rates (P = 0.003). Although the tumor stages were earlier in the PNI-low group (P < 0.001), patients' OS (5-year OS: 48.9% vs. 93.1%) and RFS (5-year RFS: 27.3% vs. 75.7%) were significantly worse compared to the PNI-high group (both P < 0.0001). Patients' OS and RFS nomograms were developed by incorporating independent survival predictors including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), age ≥ 75 years, PNI-low, tumor presence of satellite nodules, capsule, and microvascular invasion. The nomograms showed good calibration and discrimination, with all C-indexes ≥ 0.75 and calibration plots essentially coinciding with the diagonal. In conclusion, for elderly HCC patients, COPD, age ≥ 75 years, PNI-low, and tumor presence of satellite nodules, capsule, and microvascular invasion were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram could accurately predict the prognosis of these patients.

Prognostic factors and predictive nomogram models for early death in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based study

Background: Owing to an aging society, there has been an observed increase in the average age of patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Consequently, this study is centered on identifying the prognostic factors linked with early death among this elderly demographic diagnosed with HCC. Additionally, our focus extends to developing nomograms capable of predicting such outcomes. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database underpinned this study, showcasing participants aged 75 and above diagnosed with HCC within the timeframe from 2010 to 2015. These participants were divided randomly, at a 7:3 ratio, into training and validation cohorts. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were applied to the training cohort in the identification of prognostic indicators of early death, forming the basis for nomogram development. To measure the efficacy of these nomograms within both cohorts, we resorted to Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, along with GiViTI calibration belt and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). Results: The study involved 1,163 elderly individuals diagnosed with HCC, having reported instances of 397 all-cause early deaths and 356 HCC-specific early deaths. The sample group was divided into two cohorts: a training group consisting of 815 individuals, and a validation cohort, comprised of 348 individuals. Multifactorial analysis identified grade, T-stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone and lung metastasis as significant predictors of mortality from all causes. Meanwhile, race, grade, T-stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and bone metastasis were revealed to be estimative factors for cancer-specific mortality. Subsequently, these factors were used to develop nomograms for prediction. GiViTI calibration belt corroborated the acceptable coherence of the nomograms, DCA confirmed their valuable clinical applicability, and ROC curves evidenced satisfactory discriminative capacity within both training and validation cohorts. Conclusion: The nomograms utilized in this study proved instrumental in detecting early death among elderly individuals afflicted with HCC. This tool could potentially assist physicians in formulating individualized treatment strategies.

Elderly Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Benefit from Liver Transplantation as Much as Younger Ones

INTRODUCTION

The literature on liver transplantation (LT) for cirrhosis-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (cirr-HCC) in elderly patients (≥65 years of age) is scarce. The aim of this study was therefore to analyze the outcome after LT for cirr-HCC in elderly patients in our single-center experience.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent LT for cirr-HCC at our center were identified from our prospectively collected LT database and stratified into an elderly (≥65 years) and a younger (<65 years) cohort. Perioperative mortality as well as Kaplan-Meier estimations of overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared between age strata. A subgroup analysis was performed for patients with HCC only inside Milan criteria. For further oncological comparison, outcome in the subgroup of elderly LT recipients with HCC inside Milan was also compared to a group of elderly patients undergoing liver resection for cirr-HCC inside Milan extracted from our institutional liver resection database.

RESULTS

Out of 369 consecutive patients with cirr-HCC who underwent LT between 1998 and 2022 at our center, we identified 97 elderly (with a subgroup of 14 septuagenarians) and 272 younger LT patients. 5- and 10-year OS in elderly compared to younger LT patients was 63% and 52% versus 63% and 46% (p = 0.67), respectively, while 5- and 10-year RFS was 58% and 49% versus 58% and 44% (p = 0.69). 5-/10-year OS and RFS in 50 elderly LT recipients with HCC inside Milan were 68%/55% and 62%/54%, respectively, which compared to 46%/38% (p = 0.07) and 26%/14% (p < 0.0001) in elderly patients after liver resection for cirr-HCC inside Milan.

CONCLUSION

Our results in almost 100 elderly patients after LT for cirr-HCC show that older age per se should not be considered a contraindication to LT and that selected elderly patients older than 65 and even 70 years benefit from LT as much as younger ones.

Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Laparoscopic Versus Open Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Elderly Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Laparoscopic hepatectomy (LH) is considered a safe and feasible treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in recent studies. However, in elderly patients, application of LH still remains controversial, and the outcomes of LH versus open hepatectomy (OH) have not been fully evaluated. Our objective is to compare the short- and long-term outcomes of LH with OH in elderly patients with HCC. Materials and Methods: All studies comparing LH and OH in elderly patients with HCC were systematically searched in the databases of PubMed, EmBase, and Web of Science. Statistical analysis was conducted using Review Manager 5.3 (Cochrane Collaboration, 2014). The last search was performed on March 20, 2022. Short-term outcomes include blood loss, operation time, blood transfusion, overall and major postoperative complications, mortality, hospital stay, tumor size, and surgical margin. Long-term outcomes include 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS); 1-, 3-, and 5-year disease-free survival (DFS); and 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). Results: Fourteen studies involving 1596 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The short-term outcomes of LH were a shorter postoperative hospital stay and fewer overall and major postoperative complications (all P < .00001). However, there were no significant differences in operation time, blood loss, blood transfusion rate, surgical margin, tumor size, and mortality. For the long-term outcomes, LH is comparable with OH in terms of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS; 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS; and 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS. Conclusions: Compared with OH, LH is a safe and feasible treatment for elderly patients with HCC.

Liver resection versus radiofrequency ablation in octogenarian patients for hepatocellular carcinoma: a propensity score multicenter analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver resection (LR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are considered curative options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to compare outcomes after LR and RFA in octogenarian patients with HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study included 102 elderly patients (> 80 years old) treated between January 2009 and January 2019, who underwent LR or RFA for HCC (65 and 37 with, respectively).

RESULTS

After Propensity Score Matching, the postoperative course of LR was burdened by a higher rate of complications than RFA group (64% vs 14%, respectively, p: 0.001). The LR group had also significantly longer operative time (207 ± 85 min vs 33 ± 49 min, p < 0.001) and postoperative hospital stays than the RFA group (7 d vs 2 d, p = 0.019). Overall survival at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 86%, 86%, and 70% for the LR group and 82%, 64%, and 52% for the RFA group (p = 0.380). Disease-free survival at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 89%, 74%, and 56% for the LR group, and 51%, 40%, and 40% for the RFA group (p = 0.037).

CONCLUSION

Despite a higher rate of Dindo-Clavien I-II post-operative complications, a longer operative time and length of hospital stay, LR in octogenarian patients can provide comparable 90d mortality than RFA and better long-term outcomes.

Comparison of surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation for stages I and II elderly hepatocellular carcinoma patients (≥ 65 years): A SEER population-based propensity score matching’s study

Objectives

The treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial and limited in elderly patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore treatment choices for the elderly patients (≥ 65years) following surgical resection (SR) versus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) with HCC (single lesion less than 5 cm).

Methods

We used SEER database to identify HCC patients who received treatment of SR/RFA. Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression method were used to determine the prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). In addition, RFA group and SR group patients were matched with 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) for diagnosis age, sex, race, marital, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), grade, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy to decrease the possibility of selection bias. Conditional disease-specific survival (CS) was estimated using the life-table method.

Results

A total of 794 patients who underwent SR and 811 patients who underwent RFA were confirmed from the SEER database. Surgery type was an independent risk factor for HCC. Survival analysis indicated that SR, races, AJCC I, no chemotherapy treatment, and grade I were cumulative risk factors that can significantly improve median survival for HCC (P < 0.05). After PSM analysis, only surgery type was significantly improved median survival of HCC patients (SR vs. RFA, HR: 0.644, 95% CI: 0.482–0.86; P < 0.001). For RFA group, the 2-, 3-, and 5-year CS rates were approximately 71%, 65%, and 62%, respectively, and corresponding to 82%, 80%, and 78% in the SR group.

Conclusion

SR treatment can provide survival benefits for elderly patients of <5 cm single lesion HCC.

The role of muscle depletion and visceral adiposity in HCC patients aged 65 and over undergoing TACE

Background

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing among the elderly populations. Trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE), a widely used first-line non-curative therapy for HCCs is an issue in geriatrics. We investigated the prognosis of elderly HCC patients treated with TACE and determined the factors that affect the overall survival.

Methods

We included 266 patients who were older than 65 years and had received TACE as initial treatment for HCC. We analyzed the skeletal muscle index (SMI) and visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio (VSR) around the third lumbar vertebrae using computed tomography scans. Muscle depletion with visceral adiposity (MDVA) was defined by falling below the median SMI and above the median VSR value sex-specifically. We evaluated the overall survival in association with MDVA and other clinical factors.

Results

The mean age was 69.9 ± 4.5 years, and 70.3% of the patients were men. According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, 29, 136, and 101 patients were classified as BCLC 0, A, and B stages, respectively, and 79 (29.7%) had MDVA. During the median follow-up of 4.1 years, patients with MDVA had a shorter life expectancy than those without MDVA (P = 0.007) even though MDVA group had a higher objective response rate after the first TACE (82.3% vs. 75.9%, P = 0.035). Multivariate analysis revealed that MDVA (Hazard ratio [HR] 1.515) age (HR 1.057), liver function (HR 1.078), tumor size (HR 1.083), serum albumin level (HR 0.523), platelet count (HR 0.996), tumor stage (stage A, HR 1.711; stage B, HR 2.003), and treatment response after the first TACE treatment (HR 0.680) were associated with overall survival.

Conclusions

MDVA is a critical prognostic factor for predicting survival in the elderly patients with HCC who have undergone TACE.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08905-2.

How to Treat Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Elderly Patients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the primary tumour of the liver with the greatest incidence, particularly in the elderly. Additionally, improvements in the treatments for chronic liver diseases have increased the number of elderly patients who might be affected by HCC. Little evidence exists regarding HCC in old patients, and the elderly are still underrepresented and undertreated in clinical trials. In fact, this population represents a complex subgroup of patients who are hard to manage, especially due to the presence of multiple comorbidities. Therefore, the choice of treatment is mainly decided by the physician in the clinical practice, who often tend not to treat elderly patients in order to avoid the possibility of adverse events, which may alter their unstable equilibrium. In this context, the clarification of the optimal treatment strategy for elderly patients affected by HCC has become an urgent necessity. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the available data regarding the treatment of HCC in elderly patients, starting from the definition of "elderly" and the geriatric assessment and scales. We explain the possible treatment choices according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) scale and their feasibility in the elderly population.