Radiomics of rectal cancer for predicting distant metastasis and overall survival

MRI-Based Radiomics Features for Prediction of Pathological Deterioration Upgrading in Rectal Tumor

PURPOSE

Our aim is to develop and validate an MRI-based diagnostic model for predicting pathological deterioration upgrading in rectal tumor.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 158 eligible patients from January 2017 to November 2023. The patients were divided into a training group (n = 110) and a validation group (n = 48). Radiomics features were extracted from T2-weighted images to create a radiomics score model. Significant factors identified through multifactor analysis were used to develop the final clinical feature model. By combining these two models, an combined radiomics-clinical model was established. The model's performance was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 1197 features were extracted, with 11 features selected for calculating the radiomics score to establish the radiomics model. This model demonstrated good predictive performance for pathological upgrading in both the training and validation groups (AUC of 0.863 and 0.861, respectively). Clinical factors such as chief complaint and differential carcinoembryonic antigen levels showed statistical significance (P < 0.05). The clinical model, incorporating these factors, yielded AUC values of 0.669 and 0.651 for the training and validation groups, respectively. Furthermore, the radiomics-clinical combined model outperformed the individual models in predicting preoperative pathological upgrading in both the training and validation groups (AUC of 0.932 and 0.907, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

A radiomics-clinical model, which combines clinical features with radiomics features based on MRI, can predict pathological deterioration upgrading in patients with rectal tumor and provide valuable insights for personalized treatment strategies.

Role of microenvironment characteristics and MRI radiomics in the risk stratification of distant metastases in rectal cancer: a diagnostic study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the value of tumor stroma ratio (TSR) and radiomic signature from baseline MRI for stratifying the risk of distant metastases (DM) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 302 patients with LARC who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision in our hospital between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed, and the patients were randomly allocated into the training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Patients were followed-up for more than 3 years postoperatively with metachronous DM as the endpoint. Independent risk factors for DM-free survival (DMFS) were analyzed using Cox regression. The TSR of endoscopic biopsy specimens was scored automatically. Totally 1229 radiomic features of each tumor were extracted from baseline MRI, and the Radscore was calculated.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 54.3 (51.6-57.1) months, and the 3-year DMFS was 83.8%. The best cutoff value of the TSR to distinguish a patient's DM risk was 0.477 (Sen=70.8%, Sep=78%, P <0.001). Increased TSR (HR=3.072, P =0.006) and Radscore (HR=719.231, P =0.023), advanced MR-evaluated T stage (HR=2.660, P =0.023) and ypN (HR=2.362, P =0.028) stage were independent risk factors for DMFS. The area under the curve of the combined model was significantly higher than that of the radiomic model ( P =0.013) but without a significant advantage over the TSR model ( P =0.086).

CONCLUSION

TSR of colonoscopic biopsies can independently stratify DM risk in patients with LARC. The TSR model is the most convenient and efficient method for DM risk stratification in LARC.

Association Analysis Between Intratumoral and Peritumoral MRI Radiomics Features and Overall Survival of Neoadjuvant Therapy in Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The use of peritumoral features to determine the survival time of patients with rectal cancer (RC) is still imprecise.

PURPOSE

To explore the correlation between intratumoral, peritumoral and combined features, and overall survival (OS).

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

One hundred sixty-six RC patients (53 women, 113 men; average age: 55 ± 12 years) who underwent radical resection after neoadjuvant therapy.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3 T; T2WI sagittal, T1WI axial, T2WI axial with fat suppression, and high-resolution T2WI axial sequences, enhanced T1WI axial and sagittal sequences with fat suppression.

ASSESSMENT

Radiologist A segmented 166 patients, and radiologist B randomly segmented 30 patients. Intratumoral and peritumoral features were extracted, and features with good stability (ICC ≥0.75) were retained through intra-observer analysis. Seven classifiers, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Extremely randomized trees (ET), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and LightGBM (LGBM), were applied to select the classifier with the best performance. Next, the Rad-score of best classifier and the clinical features were selected to establish the models, thus, nomogram was built to identify the association with 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS.

STATISTICAL TESTS

LASSO, regression analysis, ROC, DeLong method, Kaplan-Meier curve. P < 0.05 indicated a significant difference.

RESULTS

Only Node (irregular tumor nodules in the surrounding mesentery) and ExtraMRF (lymph nodes outside the perirectal mesentery) were significantly different in 20 clinical features. Twelve intratumoral, 3 peritumoral, and 14 combined features related to OS were selected. LR, SVM, and RF classier showed the best efficacy in the intratumoral, peritumoral, and combined model, respectively. The combined model (AUC = 0.954 and 0.821) had better survival association than the intratumoral model (AUC = 0.833 and 0.813) and the peritumoral model (AUC = 0.824 and 0.687).

DATA CONCLUSION

The proposed peritumoral model with radiomics features may serve as a tool to improve estimated survival time.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 4.

Prediction of pathological response and lymph node metastasis after neoadjuvant therapy in rectal cancer through tumor and mesorectal MRI radiomic features

Establishing predictive models for the pathological response and lymph node metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) based on MRI radiomic features derived from the tumor and mesorectal compartment (MC). This study included 209 patients with LARC who underwent rectal MRI both before and after nCRT. The patients were divided into a training set (n = 146) and a test set (n = 63). Regions of interest (ROIs) for the tumor and MC were delineated on both pre- and post-nCRT MRI images. Radiomic features were extracted, and delta radiomic features were computed. The predictive endpoints were pathological complete response (pCR), pathological good response (pGR), and lymph node metastasis (LNM). Feature selection for various models involved sequentially removing features with a correlation coefficient > 0.9, and features with P-values ≥ 0.05 in univariate analysis, followed by LASSO regression on the remaining features. Logistic regression models were developed, and their performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Among the 209 LARC patients, the number of patients achieving pCR, pGR, and LNM were 44, 118, and 40, respectively. The optimal model for predicting each endpoint is the combined model that incorporates pre- and delta-radiomics features for both the tumor and MC. These models exhibited superior performance with AUC values of 0.874 (for pCR), 0.801 (for pGR), and 0.826 (for LNM), outperforming the MRI tumor regression grade (mrTRG) which yielded AUC values of 0.800, 0.715, and 0.603, respectively. The results demonstrate the potential utility of the tumor and MC radiomics features, in predicting treatment efficacy among LARC patients undergoing nCRT.

Added value of DCER-features to clinicopathologic model for predicting metachronous metastases in rectal cancer patients

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to investigate whether dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI parameters and preoperative radiological features (DCER-Features) add value to the clinicopathologic model for predicting metachronous metastases in rectal cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From January 2014 to December 2020, 859 patients in the PACS system were retrospectively screened. Of the initial 722 patients with surgically confirmed rectal cancer and no synchronous metastases, 579 patients were excluded for various reasons such as lack of clinicopathological or radiological information. 143 patients were finally included in this study. And 73 Patients of them developed metachronous metastasis within five years. After stepwise multiple regression analyses, we constructed three distinct models. Model 1 was developed solely based on clinicopathological factors, and model 2 incorporated clinicopathological characteristics along with DCE-MRI parameters. Finally, model 3 was built on all available factors, including clinicopathological characteristics, DCE-MRI parameters, and radiological features based on rectal magnetic resonance imaging. The radiological features assessed in this study encompass tumor imaging staging, location, and circumferential resection margin (CRM) for primary tumors, as well as the number of visible lymph nodes and suspected metastatic lymph nodes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to evaluate whether the diagnostic efficiency was improved.

RESULTS

The performance of model 3 (including clinicopathologic characteristics and DCER-Features) was the best (AUC: 0.856, 95% CI 0.778-0.886), whereas it was 0.796 (95% CI 0.720-0.828) for model 2 and 0.709 (95% CI 0.612-0.778) for model 1 (DeLong test: model 1 vs model 2, p = 0.004; model 2 vs model 3, p = 0.037; model 1 vs model 3, p < 0.001). The decision curves indicated that the net benefit of model 3 was higher than the other two models at each referral threshold. The calibration plot of the three models revealed an excellent predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that DCER-Features have added value for the clinicopathological model to predict metachronous metastasis in patients with rectal cancers.

Pretreatment MRI-Based Radiomics for Prediction of Rectal Cancer Outcome: A Discovery and Validation Study

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Accurate prediction of local recurrence or distant metastasis is critical for developing individualized therapies for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients after standard therapy. This study aims to develop and validate a multiparameter MRI-based radiomics signature (RS) for prognostic prediction in LARC patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME) and to explore the ability of RS for personalized survival risk stratification.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this multi-center study, 454 patients who received nCRT and TME and completed 3 years of follow-up participated. RS was constructed for prognostic prediction based on features extracted from pretreatment multiparameter MRI in a training cohort (TC; n = 298), which was tested in an internal validation cohort (IVC; n = 75) and further validated in an independent external validation cohort (EVC; n = 81). Furthermore, the ability of RS for personalized survival risk stratification was explored using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

RESULTS

The RS model showed satisfactory accuracy for prognostic prediction with AUCs of 0.83, 0.81 and 0.82 in the TC, IVC and EVC, respectively. In addition, RS helped to refine risk stratification for LARC patients on the basis of significantly different 3-year disease-free survival rates, independent of their pathological stage, pre-surgery CEA, and even treatment modality.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed RS can be used not only to predict local recurrence or distant metastasis but also to serve as an effective postoperative survival risk stratification tool for clinicians to facilitate decision-making for LARC patients receiving standard treatment.

MRI-based radiomics for preoperative prediction of recurrence and metastasis in rectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

To explore the value of multi-parametric MRI (mp-MRI) radiomic model for preoperative prediction of recurrence and/or metastasis (RM) as well as survival benefits in patients with rectal cancer.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 234 patients from two centers with histologically confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma was conducted. All patients were divided into three groups: training, internal validation (in-vad) and external validation (ex-vad) sets. In the training set, radiomic features were extracted from T2WI, DWI, and contrast enhancement T1WI (CE-T1) sequence. Radiomic signature (RS) score was then calculated for feature screening to construct a rad-score model. Subsequently, preoperative clinical features with statistical significance were selected to construct a clinical model. Independent predictors from clinical and RS related to RM were selected to build the combined model and nomogram.

RESULTS

After feature extraction, 26 features were selected to construct the rad-score model. RS (OR = 0.007, p < 0.01), MR-detected T stage (mrT) (OR = 2.92, p = 0.03) and MR-detected circumferential resection margin (mrCRM) (OR = 4.70, p = 0.01) were identified as independent predictors of RM. Then, clinical model and combined model were constructed. ROC curve showed that the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the combined model were higher than that of the other two models in three sets. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that poorer disease-free survival (DFS) time was observed for patients in pT3-4 stages with low RS score (p < 0.001), similar results were also found in pCRM-positive patients (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The mp-MRI radiomics model can be served as a noninvasive and accurate predictors of RM in rectal cancer that may support clinical decision-making.

The Role of Radiomics in Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE

Radiomics is a promising method for advancing imaging assessment in rectal cancer. This review aims to describe the emerging role of radiomics in the imaging assessment of rectal cancer, including various applications of radiomics based on CT, MRI, or PET/CT.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review to highlight the progress of radiomic research to date and the challenges that need to be addressed before radiomics can be implemented clinically.

RESULTS

The results suggest that radiomics has the potential to provide valuable information for clinical decision-making in rectal cancer. However, there are still challenges in terms of standardization of imaging protocols, feature extraction, and validation of radiomic models. Despite these challenges, radiomics holds great promise for personalized medicine in rectal cancer, with the potential to improve diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment planning. Further research is needed to validate the clinical utility of radiomics and to establish its role in routine clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

Overall, radiomics has emerged as a powerful tool for improving the imaging assessment of rectal cancer, and its potential benefits should not be underestimated.

Risk prediction of second primary malignancies in patients after rectal cancer: analysis based on SEER Program

BACKGROUND

This study will focus on exploring the clinical characteristics of rectal cancer (RC) patients with Second Primary Malignancies (SPMs) and constructing a prognostic nomogram to provide clinical treatment decisions.

METHODS

We determined the association between risk factors and overall survival (OS) while establishing a nomogram to forecast the further OS status of these patients via Cox regression analysis. Finally, we evaluated the performance of the prognostic nomogram to predict further OS status.

RESULTS

Nine parameters were identified to establish the prognostic nomogram in this study, and, the C-index of the training set and validation set was 0.691 (95%CI, 0.662-0.720) and 0.731 (95%CI, 0.676-0.786), respectively. The calibration curve showed a high agreement between the predicted and actual results, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves verified the superiority of our model for clinical usefulness. In addition, the nomogram classification could more precisely differentiate risk subgroups and improved the discrimination of SPMs' prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

We systematically explored the clinical characteristics of SPMs after RC and constructed a satisfactory nomogram.

Artificial intelligence-driven radiomics study in cancer: the role of feature engineering and modeling

Modern medicine is reliant on various medical imaging technologies for non-invasively observing patients' anatomy. However, the interpretation of medical images can be highly subjective and dependent on the expertise of clinicians. Moreover, some potentially useful quantitative information in medical images, especially that which is not visible to the naked eye, is often ignored during clinical practice. In contrast, radiomics performs high-throughput feature extraction from medical images, which enables quantitative analysis of medical images and prediction of various clinical endpoints. Studies have reported that radiomics exhibits promising performance in diagnosis and predicting treatment responses and prognosis, demonstrating its potential to be a non-invasive auxiliary tool for personalized medicine. However, radiomics remains in a developmental phase as numerous technical challenges have yet to be solved, especially in feature engineering and statistical modeling. In this review, we introduce the current utility of radiomics by summarizing research on its application in the diagnosis, prognosis, and prediction of treatment responses in patients with cancer. We focus on machine learning approaches, for feature extraction and selection during feature engineering and for imbalanced datasets and multi-modality fusion during statistical modeling. Furthermore, we introduce the stability, reproducibility, and interpretability of features, and the generalizability and interpretability of models. Finally, we offer possible solutions to current challenges in radiomics research.

Development and validation of a radiomics model of magnetic resonance for predicting liver metastasis in resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Nearly one fourth of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) occur to liver metastasis after surgery, and liver metastasis is a risk factor for prognosis for those patients with surgery therapy. However, there is no effective way to predict liver metastasis post-operation.

METHOD

Clinical data and preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of PDAC patients diagnosed between July 2010 and July 2020 were retrospectively collected from three hospital centers in China. The significant MRI radiomics features or clinicopathological characteristics were used to establish a model to predict liver metastasis in the development and validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 204 PDAC patients from three hospital centers were divided randomly (7:3) into development and validation cohort. Due to poor predictive value of clinical features, MRI radiomics model had similar receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) value to clinical-radiomics combing model in development cohort (0.878 vs. 0.880, p = 0.897) but better ROC in validation dataset (0.815 vs. 0.732, p = 0.022). Radiomics model got a sensitivity of 0.872/0.750 and a specificity of 0.760/0.822 to predict liver metastasis in development and validation cohort, respectively. Among 54 patients randomly selected with post-operation specimens, fibrosis markers (α-smooth muscle actin) staining was shown to promote radiomics model with ROC value from 0.772 to 0.923 (p = 0.049) to predict liver metastasis.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated an MRI-based radiomics model and showed a good performance in predicting liver metastasis in resectable PDAC patients.

CT imaging-based radiomics signatures improve prognosis prediction in postoperative colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the use of non-contrast-enhanced (NCE) and contrast-enhanced (CE) CT radiomics signatures (Rad-scores) as prognostic factors to help improve the prediction of the overall survival (OS) of postoperative colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 65 CRC patients who underwent surgical resection in our hospital as the training set, and 19 patient images retrieved from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) as the external validation set. In training, radiomics features were extracted from the preoperative NCE/CE-CT, then selected through 5-fold cross validation LASSO Cox method and used to construct Rad-scores. Models derived from Rad-scores and clinical factors were constructed and compared. Kaplan-Meier analyses were also used to compare the survival probability between the high- and low-risk Rad-score groups. Finally, a nomogram was developed to predict the OS.

RESULTS

In training, a clinical model achieved a C-index of 0.796 (95% CI: 0.722-0.870), while clinical and two Rad-scores combined model performed the best, achieving a C-index of 0.821 (95% CI: 0.743-0.899). Furthermore, the models with the CE-CT Rad-score yielded slightly better performance than that of NCE-CT in training. For the combined model with CE-CT Rad-scores, a C-index of 0.818 (95% CI: 0.742-0.894) and 0.774 (95% CI: 0.556-0.992) were achieved in both the training and validation sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant difference in survival probability between the high- and low-risk groups. Finally, the areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the model were 0.904, 0.777, and 0.843 for 1, 3, and 5-year survival, respectively.

CONCLUSION

NCE-CT or CE-CT radiomics and clinical combined models can predict the OS for CRC patients, and both Rad-scores are recommended to be included when available.

Application of Radiomics in Predicting Treatment Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: Strategies and Challenges

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by total mesorectal excision is the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). A noninvasive preoperative prediction method should greatly assist in the evaluation of response to nCRT and for the development of a personalized strategy for patients with LARC. Assessment of nCRT relies on imaging and radiomics can extract valuable quantitative data from medical images. In this review, we examined the status of radiomic application for assessing response to nCRT in patients with LARC and indicated a potential direction for future research.

Review of Radiomics- and Dosiomics-based Predicting Models for Rectal Cancer

By breaking the traditional medical image analysis framework, precision medicine-radiomics has attracted much attention in the past decade. The use of various mathematical algorithms offers radiomics the ability to extract vast amounts of detailed features from medical images for quantitative analysis and analyzes the confidential information related to the tumor in the image, which can establish valuable disease diagnosis and prognosis models to support personalized clinical decisions. This article summarizes the application of radiomics and dosiomics in radiation oncology. We focus on the application of radiomics in locally advanced rectal cancer and also summarize the latest research progress of dosiomics in radiation tumors to provide ideas for the treatment of future related diseases, especially 125I CT-guided radioactive seed implant brachytherapy.

Analysis of MRI and CT-based radiomics features for personalized treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer and external validation of published radiomics models

Radiomics analyses commonly apply imaging features of different complexity for the prediction of the endpoint of interest. However, the prognostic value of each feature class is generally unclear. Furthermore, many radiomics models lack independent external validation that is decisive for their clinical application. Therefore, in this manuscript we present two complementary studies. In our modelling study, we developed and validated different radiomics signatures for outcome prediction after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) based on computed tomography (CT) and T2-weighted (T2w) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging datasets of 4 independent institutions (training: 122, validation 68 patients). We compared different feature classes extracted from the gross tumour volume for the prognosis of tumour response and freedom from distant metastases (FFDM): morphological and first order (MFO) features, second order texture (SOT) features, and Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) transformed intensity features. Analyses were performed for CT and MRI separately and combined. Model performance was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) and the concordance index (CI) for tumour response and FFDM, respectively. Overall, intensity features of LoG transformed CT and MR imaging combined with clinical T stage (cT) showed the best performance for tumour response prediction, while SOT features showed good performance for FFDM in independent validation (AUC = 0.70, CI = 0.69). In our external validation study, we aimed to validate previously published radiomics signatures on our multicentre cohort. We identified relevant publications on comparable patient datasets through a literature search and applied the reported radiomics models to our dataset. Only one of the identified studies could be validated, indicating an overall lack of reproducibility and the need of further standardization of radiomics before clinical application.

An endorectal ultrasound-based radiomics signature for preoperative prediction of lymphovascular invasion of rectal cancer

Objective

To investigate whether radiomics based on ultrasound images can predict lymphovascular invasion (LVI) of rectal cancer (RC) before surgery.

Methods

A total of 203 patients with RC were enrolled retrospectively, and they were divided into a training set (143 patients) and a validation set (60 patients). We extracted the radiomic features from the largest gray ultrasound image of the RC lesion. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was applied to test the repeatability of the radiomic features. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to reduce the data dimension and select significant features. Logistic regression (LR) analysis was applied to establish the radiomics model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the comprehensive performance of the model.

Results

Among the 203 patients, 33 (16.7%) were LVI positive and 170 (83.7%) were LVI negative. A total of 5350 (90.1%) radiomic features with ICC values of ≥ 0.75 were reported, which were subsequently subjected to hypothesis testing and LASSO regression dimension reduction analysis. Finally, 15 selected features were used to construct the radiomics model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.849, and the AUC of the validation set was 0.781. The calibration curve indicated that the radiomics model had good calibration, and DCA demonstrated that the model had clinical benefits.

Conclusion

The proposed endorectal ultrasound-based radiomics model has the potential to predict LVI preoperatively in RC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-022-00813-6.

Comparative study of radiomics, tumor morphology, and clinicopathological factors in predicting overall survival of patients with rectal cancer before surgery

•

Radiomics analysis of pretreatment MR images could predict overall survival (OS) in patients.

•

Clinical, pathological and MRI imaging indexes were included and models were established. Tumor morphological model, clinicopathological model, radiomics model and comprehensive model were used to evaluate the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer. It can explore the influence of the above factors on the prognosis of rectal cancer from multi-level and multi-angle.

•

The proposed radiomics nomogram showed better prognostic performance than the clinicopathological and imaging model in risk stratification and can classify patients into high- and low-risk groups with significant differences in OS.

We compared the ability of a radiomics model, morphological imaging model, and clinicopathological risk model to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) in 206 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical surgery and had magnetic resonance imaging, clinicopathological, and OS data available. The patients were randomized to a training cohort (n = 146) and a verification cohort (n = 60). Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative T2-weighted images, and a radiomics score model was constructed. Factors that were significant in the Cox multivariate analysis were used to construct the final morphological tumor model and clinicopathological model. A comprehensive model in the form of a line chart was established by combining the three models. Ten radiomics features significantly related to OS were selected to construct the radiomics feature model and calculate the radiomics score. In the morphological model, mesorectal extension depth and distance between the lower tumor margin and the anal margin were significant prognostic factors. N stage was the only significant clinicopathological factor. The comprehensive model combined with the above factors had the best prediction performance for OS. The C-index had a predictive performance of 0.872 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.832–0.912) in the training cohort and 0.944 (95% CI: 0.890–0.990) in the verification cohort, which was better than for any single model. The comprehensive model was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that all factors were significantly correlated with poor OS in the high-risk group. A comprehensive nomogram based on multi-model radiomics features can predict 3-year OS after rectal cancer surgery.

Predicting Distant Metastasis in Young-Onset Colorectal Cancer After Surgery: A Retrospective Study

Background

Although overall colorectal cancer (CRC) cases have been declining worldwide, there has been an increase in the incidence of the CRC among individuals younger than 50 years old, which is associated with distant metastasis (DM) and poor prognosis.

Methods

Young-onset CRC patients' postoperative data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between January 2010 and December 2015. Data from the SEER database were divided into early stage and advanced stage according to whether chemoradiotherapy was recommended in the guidelines. Independent risk factors for DM were explored by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression separately. A predictive model was established and presented as nomogram in the training set of advanced stage. The model was internally verified in testing set and externally validated in a cohort of 145 patients from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. The accuracy, reliability, and clinical application value were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Different risk subgroups of DM were classified according to the scores of the nomogram in the training set of advanced stage.

Results

A total of 5,584 patients were eligible and enrolled in our study in which 1,277 were in early stage and 4,307 in advanced stage. Preoperative CEA positive was found to be an independent predictor of DM in early stage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that tumor size, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, preoperative CEA, and whether radiation or chemotherapy performed were independent risk factors for DM (all, p < 0.05) in advanced stage. Great accuracies were achieved in our nomogram with AUC of 0.801 in training set, 0.811 in testing set, and 0.791 in the validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA in internal validation and external validation both showed good stability and clinical utility values.

Conclusions

Preoperative CEA positive was a significant predictor of DM for young-onset CRC patients. A novel nomogram containing clinical and pathological features was established for predicting DM of advanced CRC in patients younger than 50 years old. This tool may serve as an early alert for clinicians to DM and make better clinical treatment regimens.

A Predictive Model of 2yDFS During MR-Guided RT Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients

Purpose

Distant metastasis is the main cause of treatment failure in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients, despite the recent improvement in treatment strategies. This study aims to evaluate the “delta radiomics” approach in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) treated with 0.35-T magnetic resonance-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT), developing a logistic regression model able to predict 2-year disease-free-survival (2yDFS).

Methods

Patients affected by LARC were enrolled in this multi-institutional study. A predictive model of 2yDFS was developed taking into account both clinical and radiomics variables. Gross tumour volume (GTV) was delineated on the magnetic resonance (MR) images acquired during MRgRT, and 1,067 radiomic features (RF) were extracted using the MODDICOM platform. The performance of RF in predicting 2yDFS was investigated in terms of the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results

48 patients have been retrospectively enrolled, with 8 patients (16.7%) developing distant metastases at the 2-year follow-up. A total of 1,099 variables (1,067 RF and 32 clinical variables) were evaluated in two different models: radiomics and radiomics/clinical. The best-performing 2yDFS predictive model was a delta radiomics one, based on the variation in terms of area/surface ratio between biologically effective doses (BED) at 54 Gy and simulation (AUC of 0.92).

Conclusions

The results of this study suggest a promising role of delta radiomics analysis on 0.35-T MR images in predicting 2yDFS for LARC patients. Further analyses including larger cohorts of patients and an external validation are needed to confirm these preliminary results.

Development and Validation of an MRI-Based Nomogram Model for Predicting Disease-Free Survival in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy

Objectives

To develop a prognostic prediction MRI-based nomogram model for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of 233 LARC (MRI-T stage 3-4 (mrT) and/or MRI-N stage 1-2 (mrN), M0) patients who had undergone neoadjuvant radiotherapy and total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery with baseline MRI and operative pathology assessments at our institution from March 2015 to March 2018. The patients were sequentially allocated to training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 4:3 based on the image examination date. A nomogram model was developed based on the univariate logistic regression analysis and multivariable Cox regression analysis results of the training cohort for disease-free survival (DFS). To evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram, Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted in both cohorts.

Results

The median follow-up times were 43.2 months (13.3–61.3 months) and 32.0 months (12.3–39.5 months) in the training and validation cohorts. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified MRI-detected extramural vascular invasion (mrEMVI), pathological T stage (ypT) and perineural invasion (PNI) as independent predictors. Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (which almost reached statistical significance in multivariate regression analysis) and three other independent predictors were included in the nomogram model. The nomogram showed the best predictive ability for DFS (C-index: 0.769 (training cohort) and 0.776 (validation cohort)). It had a good 3-year DFS predictive capacity [area under the curve, AUC=0.843 (training cohort) and 0.771 (validation cohort)]. DCA revealed that the use of the nomogram model was associated with benefits for the prediction of 3-year DFS in both cohorts.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a novel nomogram model based on MRI factors and pathological factors for predicting DFS in LARC treated with neoadjuvant therapy. This model has good predictive value for prognosis, which could improve the risk stratification and individual treatment of LARC patients.

Use of Radiomics to Improve Diagnostic Performance of PI-RADS v2.1 in Prostate Cancer

Objective

To investigate whether a radiomics model can help to improve the performance of PI-RADS v2.1 in prostate cancer (PCa).

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of 203 patients with pathologically confirmed PCa or non-PCa between March 2015 and December 2016. Patients were divided into a training set (n = 141) and a validation set (n = 62). The radiomics model (Rad-score) was developed based on multi-parametric MRI including T2 weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) imaging, and dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) imaging. The combined model involving Rad-score and PI-RADS was compared with PI-RADS for the diagnosis of PCa by using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.

Results

A total of 112 (55.2%) patients had PCa, and 91 (44.8%) patients had benign lesions. For PCa versus non-PCa, the Rad-score had a significantly higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) [0.979 (95% CI, 0.940–0.996)] than PI-RADS [0.905 (0.844–0.948), P = 0.002] in the training set. However, the AUC between them was insignificant in the validation set [0.861 (0.749–0.936) vs. 0.845 (0.731–0.924), P = 0.825]. When Rad-score was added to PI-RADS, the performance of the PI-RADS was significantly improved for the PCa diagnosis (AUC = 0.989, P < 0.001 for the training set and AUC = 0.931, P = 0.038 for the validation set).

Conclusions

The radiomics based on multi-parametric MRI can help to improve the diagnostic performance of PI-RADS v2.1 in PCa.