Prognostic value of changes in serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels for preoperative chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on DCE-MRI Radiomics for Predicting Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1α Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The expression levels of hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF-1α) have been identified as a pivotal marker, correlating with treatment response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) radiomics and clinical features for predicting the expression of HIF-1α in patients with LARC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 102 patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer were divided into training (n = 71) and validation (n = 31) cohorts. The expression statuses of HIF-1α were histopathologically classified, categorizing patients into high and low expression groups. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were employed for feature selection to construct a radiomics signature and calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score). Univariate and multivariate analyses of clinical features and Rad-score were applied, and the clinical model and the nomogram were constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram incorporating clinical features and Rad-score was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Seven radiomics features from DCE-MRI were used to build the radiomics signature. The nomogram incorporating CEA, Ki-67 and Rad-score had the highest AUC values in the training cohort and in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.918 and 0.920). Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram outperformed the clinical model and radiomics signature in terms of clinical utility. In addition, the calibration curve for the nomogram demonstrated good agreement between prediction and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on DCE-MRI radiomics and clinical features showed favorable predictive efficacy and might be useful for preoperatively discriminating the expression of HIF-1α.

Assessing the predictive value of clinical factors to pathological complete response for locally advanced rectal cancer: An analysis of 124 patients

Purpose

To investigate the clinical factors affecting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

Clinical data of 124 LARC patients treated with nCRT and surgery in the fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from 2014 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. In this study, univariate analysis and logistic dichotomous multivariate regression analysis were used to study the clinical factors affecting pCR, and the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to further verify the accuracy of partial indexes in predicting pCR.

Results

Of the 124 enrolled patients, 19 patients (15.32%) achieved pCR. Univariate analysis showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) level before treatment, MRI longitudinal length of tumor, and extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) were statistically correlated with pCR. ROC analysis of the longitudinal length of tumor measured by MRI showed that the area under the curve (AUC) value, sensitivity and specificity were 0.735, 89.47% and 48.57% respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 5.5cm. The ROC analysis showed that the AUC value, sensitivity and specificity of pCR prediction using CEA were 0.741, 63.16% and 90.48%, respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 3.1ng/ml. Multivariate results showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI were independent predictors of pCR.

Conclusion

The number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI may be important determinants of LARC patients to reach pCR after nCRT.

Pretreatment Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level Serves as a Potential Biomarker to Guide Adjuvant Radiotherapy in pT4N+ Colon Cancer Patients

The survival benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy in T4 colon cancer (CC) remains controversial, with conflicting results reported in the literature. This study aimed to explore the relationship between pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level and overall survival (OS) of pT4N+ CC patients treated with adjuvant radiotherapy. Data of pT4N+ CC patients who received curative surgery between 2004 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The primary outcome was OS, and subgroup analysis was conducted according to pretreatment CEA level. A total of 8763 patients were eligible for our study. In the CEA-normal group, 151 patients received adjuvant radiotherapy, while 3932 patients did not. In the CEA-elevated group, 212 patients received adjuvant radiotherapy, while 4468 patients did not. In general, adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with better OS in pT4N+ CC patients (HR = 0.846, 95% CI = 0.733-0.976, P = 0.022). Intriguingly, only patients with an elevated pretreatment CEA level gained a survival benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy (HR = 0.782; 95% CI = 0.651-0.939; P = 0.008) while those with a normal pretreatment CEA level did not (HR = 0.907; 95% CI = 0.721-1.141; P = 0.403). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that adjuvant radiotherapy was an independent protective factor in pT4N+ CC patients with an elevated pretreatment CEA level. Pretreatment CEA levels could serve as a potential biomarker to screen pT4N+ CC patients who would benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy.

Promises and Challenges of Predictive Blood Biomarkers for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

The treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) requires a multimodal approach combining neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Predicting tumor response to CRT can guide clinical decision making and improve patient care while avoiding unnecessary toxicity and morbidity. Circulating biomarkers offer both the advantage to be easily accessed and followed over time. In recent years, biomarkers such as proteins, blood cells, or nucleic acids have been investigated for their predictive value in oncology. We conducted a comprehensive literature review with the aim to summarize the status of circulating biomarkers predicting response to CRT in LARC. Forty-nine publications, of which forty-seven full-text articles, one review and one systematic review, were retrieved. These studies evaluated circulating markers (CEA and CA 19-9), inflammatory biomarkers (CRP, albumin, and lymphocytes), hematologic markers (hemoglobin and thrombocytes), lipids and circulating nucleic acids (cell-free DNA [cfDNA], circulating tumor DNA [ctDNA], and microRNA [miRNA]). Post-CRT CEA levels had the most consistent association with tumor response, while cfDNA integrity index, MGMT promoter methylation, ERCC-1, miRNAs, and miRNA-related SNPs were identified as potential predictive markers. Although circulating biomarkers hold great promise, inconsistent results, low statistical power, and low specificity and sensibility prevent them from reliably predicting tumor response following CRT. Validation and standardization of methods and technologies are further required to confirm results.

A Predictive Model to Evaluate Pathologic Complete Response in Rectal Adenocarcinoma

Introduction: Neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (nCRT) before surgery was a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the predictive factors and pathological complete response (pCR) in rectal cancer patients, especially in ultra-low ones. Method: A total of 402 patients were involved in this retrospective study. The logistic regression analyses were used to compare the different subgroups in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive factors of pCR by using a logistic regression model. Results: A total of 402 patients received preoperative CRT. In all patients, multivariate analysis revealed that circumferential tumor extent rate (CER) (≤ 2/3cycle vs >2/3 cycle, P < .001, OR = 4.834, 95% CI: 2.309-10.121), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (both ≤ 5 vs pre > 5 and post ≤ 5 vs both > 5, P = .033, OR = 1.537, 95% CI: 1.035-2.281), and interval time between the end of CRT and surgery (P = .031, OR = 2.412, 95% CI: 1.086-5.358) were predictive factors for pCR. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.709 (95% CI: 0.649-0.769), which was significantly higher than the CER (0.646, 95% CI: 0.584-0.709), interval time (0.563, 95% CI: 0.495-0.631) and CEA level (0.586, 95% CI: 0.518-0.655). In ultra-low rectal patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that CER (≤ 2/3 cycle vs > 2/3 cycle, P = .003, OR = 7.203, 95% CI: 1.934-26.823) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (pMMR vs dMMR, P = .016, OR = 0.173, 95% CI: 0.041-0.720) were predictive factors for pCR. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.653 (95% CI: 0.474-0.832). Conclusion: New predictive models were varied by the histologic types and MMR statuses to evaluate the trend of tumor response to nCRT in all RC cases and ultra-low RC patients, which may be used to individualize stratify for selected LARC patients.

Active surveillance in long period of total neoadjuvant therapy in rectal cancer: Early prediction of poor regression response

Aim

To analyze locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients and tumor characteristics during the period of total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and explore the risk factors that may predict poor tumor regression in response to TNT.

Materials and methods

The data of 120 LARC patients who received TNT from December 2016 and September 2019 in our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with different tumor regression responses were compared. Then we divided patients into two groups according to the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) clearance pattern after chemoradiation to explore risk factors that might predict the tumor regression response.

Results

Of 120 LARC patients, 34 (28.3%) exhibited poor regression. Stratified analysis by tumor response showed that patients with poor response to TNT were more likely to obtain elevated CEA during the course of TNT (all P < 0.05). For those with elevated pretreatment CEA, fewer patients with poor response obtained normal CEA after chemoradiation (13.6% vs. 72.7%, P < 0.001). Besides, less patients’ CEA levels in the poor response group decreased by greater than 50% after chemoradiation when compared with that in the good response group (18.2% vs. 60.6%, P = 0.002). Stratified analysis by CEA clearance pattern after chemoradiation showed patients who obtained an elevated pretreatment CEA and decreased by less than 50% after chemoradiation were more likely to have poor response to TNT compared to others (76.2% vs. 18.2%, P < 0.001). Logistic multivariate analysis revealed that cN2 (95% CI 1.553-16.448), larger tumors (95% CI 2.250-21.428) and CEA clearance pattern after chemoradiation (95% CI 1.062-66.992) were independent risk factors for poor tumor regression response.

Conclusion

Approximately one-fourth of LARC patients with TNT achieved a poor regression response. Here, cN2, larger tumor size before treatment and elevated CEA levels were considered predictive features of a poor response. Active surveillance of CEA levels during the TNT course are potentially important, and CEA levels after chemoradiation might have important implications for the tumor response to TNT.

Predictive value of a serum tumor biomarkers scoring system for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Multiple classes of molecular biomarkers have been studied as potential predictors for rectal cancer (RC) response. Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is the most widely used blood-based marker of RC and has proven to be an effective predictive marker. Cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is another tumor biomarker used for RC diagnosis and postoperative monitoring, as well as monitoring of the therapeutic effect. Using a panel of tumor markers for RC outcome prediction is a practical approach.

AIM

To assess the predictive effect of pre-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) CEA and CA19-9 levels on the prognosis of stage II/III RC patients.

METHODS

CEA and CA19-9 levels were evaluated 1 wk before NCRT. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off point of CEA and CA19-9 levels for the prognosis were 3.55 and 19.01, respectively. The novel serum tumor biomarker (NSTB) scores were as follows: score 0: Pre-NCRT CEA < 3.55 and CA19-9 < 19.01; score 2: Pre-NCRT CEA > 3.55 and CA19-9 > 19.01; score 1: Other situations. Pathological information was recorded according to histopathological reports after the operation.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, pre-NCRT CEA < 3.55 [P = 0.025 for overall survival (OS), P = 0.019 for disease-free survival (DFS)], pre-NCRT CA19-9 < 19.01 (P = 0.014 for OS, P = 0.009 for DFS), a lower NSTB score (0-1 vs 2, P = 0.009 for OS, P = 0.005 for DFS) could predict a better prognosis. However, in the multivariate analysis, only a lower NSTB score (0-1 vs 2; for OS, HR = 0.485, 95%CI: 0.251-0.940, P = 0.032; for DFS, HR = 0.453, 95%CI: 0.234-0.877, P = 0.019) and higher pathological grade, node and metastasis stage (0-I vs II-III; for OS, HR = 0.363, 95%CI: 0.158-0.837, P = 0.017; for DFS, HR = 0.342, 95%CI: 0.149-0.786, P = 0.012) were independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSION

The combination of post-NCRT CEA and CA19-9 was a predictive factor for clinical stage II/III RC patients receiving NCRT, and the combined index had a stronger predictive effect.

Combination of Changes in CEA and CA199 Concentration After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Could Predict the Prognosis of Stage II/III Rectal Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Total Mesorectal Excision

Background

Previous studies have shown that the levels of serum tumor markers CEA and CA19-9 were related to chemoradiotherapy. Therefore, it has been assumed that dynamic monitoring of these markers could predict the prognosis of stage II/III rectal cancer (RC). Therefore, this study proposed to evaluate the prognostic value of changes in serum tumor biomarkers for stage II/III RC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME).

Methods

A total of 217 patients with stage II/III RC receiving NCRT followed by TME were retrospectively analyzed. Serum CEA and CA199 levels were measured within one week before NCRT and one week before TME. The optimal cut-off points of ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% for prognosis prediction were calculated by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. Independent prognostic predictors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. To avoid the efficiency of ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% on serum tumor biomarker change (STBC) score, two models including and excluding ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% were established separately in multivariate analysis.

Results

The optimal cut-off point for ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% were −30.29% and 20.30%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that ∆CEA%, ∆CA199%, STBC score, ypT staging and yN staging could predict OS. ypT staging and STBC score could predict DFS. In multivariate analysis, only ∆CA199% (HR = 0.468, 95% CI: 0.220–0.994, p = 0.048), ypT staging (HR = 0.420, 95% CI: 0.182–0.970, p = 0.042), and STBC score (HR = 0.204, 95% CI: 0.078–0.532, p = 0.001) were independently related to OS; and STBC score (HR = 0.412, 95% CI: 0.216–0.785, p=0.007) and ypT staging (HR = 0.421, 95% CI: 0.224–0.792, p = 0.007) were independently related to DFS.

Conclusion

We established a combined STBC score to predict the prognosis of stage II/III RC patients receiving NCRT followed by TME. The predictive value of the combined score was stronger than a single marker alone and even stronger than several pathological indicators.

Exome and Tissue-Associated Microbiota as Predictive Markers of Response to Neoadjuvant Treatment in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

The clinical and pathological responses to multimodal neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancers (LARCs) remain unpredictable, and robust biomarkers are still lacking. Recent studies have shown that tumors present somatic molecular alterations related to better treatment response, and it is also clear that tumor-associated bacteria are modulators of chemotherapy and immunotherapy efficacy, therefore having implications for long-term survivorship and a good potential as the biomarkers of outcome. Here, we performed whole exome sequencing and 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) amplicon sequencing from 44 pre-treatment LARC biopsies from Argentinian and Brazilian patients, treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or total neoadjuvant treatment, searching for predictive biomarkers of response (responders, n = 17; non-responders, n = 27). In general, the somatic landscape of LARC was not capable to predict a response; however, a significant enrichment in mutational signature SBS5 was observed in non-responders (p = 0.0021), as well as the co-occurrence of APC and FAT4 mutations (p < 0.05). Microbiota studies revealed a similar alpha and beta diversity of bacteria between response groups. Yet, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) of effect size indicated an enrichment of Hungatella, Flavonifractor, and Methanosphaera (LDA score ≥3) in the pre-treatment biopsies of responders, while non-responders had a higher abundance of Enhydrobacter, Paraprevotella (LDA score ≥3) and Finegoldia (LDA score ≥4). Altogether, the evaluation of these biomarkers in pre-treatment biopsies could eventually predict a neoadjuvant treatment response, while in post-treatment samples, it could help in guiding non-operative treatment strategies.

Biomarkers in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: A Review

Locally advanced rectal cancers (LARC) are the subject of a rapidly evolving treatment paradigm. The critical timepoints where management decisions are required during the care of the LARC patient are: prior to the institution of any treatment, post neoadjuvant therapy and post-surgery. This article reviews the clinical, imaging, blood-based, tissue-based, and molecular biomarkers that can assist clinicians at these timepoints in the patient's management, in prognosticating for their LARC patients or in predicting responses to therapy in the multi-modality neoadjuvant treatment era.

The Correlation Between Survival Benefit of Preoperative Radiotherapy and Pretreatment Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background

Preoperative radiotherapy followed by radical surgery is the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer; however, its long-term survival benefit remains controversial. This study aimed to determine the relationship between pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and the long-term prognosis of preoperative radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients.

Methods

Data of LARC patients who underwent surgery between 2011 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and patients were accordingly divided into surgery (S) group and radiotherapy followed by surgery (RT+S) group. The primary outcomes were cancer-specific survival (CSS) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM). CSS was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, while CSM was evaluated using a competitive risk model. Subgroup analysis was also conducted, which was stratified by pretreatment CEA levels.

Results

A total of 2,760 patients were eligible for this study, including 350 (12.7%) patients in the S group and 2,410 (87.3%) in the RT+S group. There were no significant differences in the CSS and CSM rates at 1, 3, and 4 years between the S and RT+S groups before and after PSM (all p > 0.05). Pretreatment CEA levels were independently associated with CSS and CSM after adjusting for age, sex, stage, pathological factors, and treatment factors (all p < 0.05). Subgroup analysis showed that preoperative radiotherapy would benefit patients with elevated CEA in terms of CSS and CSM (both p < 0.05) but not those patients with normal CEA (both p > 0.05). Further analysis showed that preoperative radiotherapy was an independent protective factor for CSS and CSM in patients with elevated CEA levels (both p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Pretreatment CEA level may be considered a potential biomarker to screen LACR patients who would benefit from preoperative radiotherapy in terms of long-term prognosis.

Circulating Hybrid Cells: A Novel Liquid Biomarker of Treatment Response in Gastrointestinal Cancers

BACKGROUND

Real-time monitoring of treatment response with a liquid biomarker has potential to inform treatment decisions for patients with rectal adenocarcinoma (RAC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), and colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). Circulating hybrid cells (CHCs), which have both immune and tumor cell phenotypes, are detectable in the peripheral blood of patients with gastrointestinal cancers, but their potential as an indicator of treatment response is unexplored.

METHODS

Peripheral blood specimens were collected from RAC and EAC patients after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) or longitudinally during therapy and evaluated for CHC levels by immunostaining. Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) and the Kaplan-Meier method were used to analyze the CHC level as a predictor of pathologic response to NAT and disease-specific survival (DSS), respectively.

RESULTS

Patients with RAC (n = 23) and EAC (n = 34) were sampled on the day of resection, and 11 patients (32%) demonstrated a pathologic complete response (pCR) to NAT. On ROC analysis, CHC levels successfully discriminated pCR from non-pCR with an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.92; P < 0.001). Additionally, CHC levels in the EAC patients correlated with residual nodal involvement (P = 0.026) and 1-year DSS (P = 0.029). The patients with RAC who were followed longitudinally during NAT (n = 2) and hepatic arterial infusion therapy for CRLM (n = 2) had CHC levels that decreased with therapy response and increased before clinical evidence of disease progression.

CONCLUSION

Circulating hybrid cells are a novel blood-based biomarker with potential for monitoring treatment response and disease progression to help guide decisions for further systemic therapy, definitive resection, and post-therapy surveillance. Additional validation studies of CHCs are warranted.

Associations between clinical characteristics and tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer

Following standard neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision, some patients with locally advanced rectal cancer achieve good response (pathological T0-2N0), while others show nonresponse (pathological T3-4N0 or node-positive). To date, the clinicopathological predictors of good response and the necessity of adjuvant chemotherapy treatment (ACT) in good responders remain unclear. In this retrospective study, clinicopathological characteristics were surveyed to investigate the correlation with good response; furthermore, a propensity score matching (PSM) model was designed to balance the confounding factors between good responders treated with ACT or observation. A total of 2255 patients were enrolled, including 1069 good responders and 1186 nonresponders. The results of the survival analysis showed a good response predicted a better 3-year prognosis (p < 0.001). The logistic regression analysis showed less advanced T and N stages (T3 vs. T4; N0 vs. N1-2), more neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCT) cycles (≥4 vs. 1-3), and delayed surgery (≥8 weeks vs. <8 weeks) were independent predictors of a good response (p < 0.05). Especially, patients treated with both more nCT cycles and a delay in surgery included the greatest number of good responders (p < 0.001). For good responders, after PSM (1:3), 235 observation cases were matched to 705 ACT cases. As compared with observation, ACT had no greater impact on prognosis analysis (p > 0.05). In conclusion, more cycles of nCT and a delay in surgery predicted a better response, and the delivery of ACT might be omitted in good responders.

Urea as a By-Product of Ammonia Metabolism Can Be a Potential Serum Biomarker of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly malignant; nearly half of the new cases and deaths are in China. The poor prognosis of HCC is mainly due to late diagnosis; many new biomarkers have been developed for HCC diagnosis. However, few markers are quickly translated into clinical practice; early and differential diagnosis of HCC from cirrhosis and/or hepatitis is still a clinical challenge. Metabolomics and biochemical methods were used to reveal specific serum biomarkers of HCC. Most of the elevated metabolites in HCC and HBV patients were overlapped compared with controls. Urea was the specifically elevated serum biomarker of HCC patients. Moreover, urea combined with AFP and CEA can improve the sensitivity of HCC diagnosis. The plasma ammonia of HCC patients was significantly higher than healthy controls. Co-culture cell model revealed normal liver cells cooperated with cancer cells to metabolize ammonia into urea. The urea metabolism in cancer cells marginally depended on the expression of CPS1. However, the expression of CPS1 did not change with ammonium chloride, which might regulate the urea cycle through enzyme activity. The urea cycle could detoxify high concentrations of ammonia to promote cancer cell proliferation. Therefore, urea was a by-product of ammonia metabolism and could be a potential serum biomarker for HCC. The combined application of metabolomics and biochemical methods can discover new biomarkers for the early diagnosis of HCC and be quickly applied to clinical diagnosis.