Preoperative maximal voluntary ventilation, hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes and platelets predict postoperative survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes and platelets (HALP) score as a predictor of survival in patients with glioblastoma (GBM)

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate whether the HALP score was a predictor of survival in patients with Glioblastoma (GBM).

METHODS

A total of 84 Glioblastoma (GBM) patients followed in our clinic were included in the study. HALP scores were calculated using the preoperative hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet results of the patients. For the HALP score, a cut-off value was found by examining the area below the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Patients were divided into two groups as low and high according to this cut-off value. The relationships among the clinical, dermographic and laboratory parameters of the patients were examined using these two groups.

RESULTS

Median OS, PFS, HALP score, NLR, PLR were 15 months (1.0-78.0), 8 months (1.0-66.0), 37.39 ± 23.84 (min 6.00-max 132.31), 4.14, 145.07 respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between HALP score and OS, PFS, NLR, PLR, ECOG-PS status using Spearman's rho test (p = 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p = 0.026 respectively). For the HALP score, a cut-off value of = 37.39 (AUC = 0.698, 95% CI, p < 0.002) was found using ROC analysis. Median OS was 12 (6.99-17.01) months in the low HALP group and 21 (11.37-30.63) months in the high HALP group (p = 0.117). NLR and PLR were significantly lower in the HALP high group (p < 0.001, p < 0.001 respectively). The ratio of receiving treatment was significantly higher in the high HALP group (p < 0.05). In Multivariate analysis, significant results were found for treatment status and ECOG-PS status (p < 0.001, p = 0.038 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The HALP score measured at the beginning of treatment seems to have predictive importance in the prognosis of GBM patients. A HALP score of > 37.39 was associated with prolonged survival in high-grade brain tumors.

HALP score as a novel prognostic factor for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a heterogeneous spectrum of clonal hematopoietic disorders with varying degrees of cytopenia and morphologic dysplasia. The hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score is a prognostic marker in several types of malignant tumors. Prognostic value of HALP score remains unclear for MDS. To determine the prognostic value of baseline HALP score in MDS. We retrospectively analyzed data from 130 newly diagnosed MDS patients evaluated and classified under HALP score. By the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the optimal cut-off value of HALP was > 67.5 in predicting mortality. Patients were divided into two groups: with low and high HALP scores, and the characteristics were compared between both groups. Patients' median age was 68 (19-84) years, and 79 (60.8%) were male. Higher HALP score was detected in MDS patients with intermediate-risk under IPSS score, and at high and very high risks under IPSS-R score, and those receiving azacitidine (AZA) treatment. The survival rates of those with a HALP score > 67.5 were significantly lower than those with low HALP score at 17.77 ± 3.98 (median ± SE) (p < 0.001). The 3-, 5- and 10-years survival rates of individuals with HALP scores > 67.5 were found as 25, 18, and 11%, respectively. Median overall survival (OS) was also determined as 33.10 (95% CI 16.34-49.88) months by the Kaplan-Meier method. HALP score has shown an ability to be a useful prognostic biomarker in various cancers, including MDS. The meaningful cut-off value of HALP is disease-specific and largely study-specific. High HALP score is associated with unfavorable clinicopathological characteristics. Also, it may be useful in predicting OS and mortality of MDS.

Establishing and Externally Validating a Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) Score-Based Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in BCLC Stage 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Radical Liver Resection: A Multi-Center Study

Purpose

Early recurrence (ER) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram based on the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score to predict ER for patients with BCLC stage 0/A HCC who underwent radical liver resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 808 BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients from six hospitals were included in this study, and they were assigned to a training cohort (n = 500) and an external validation cohort (n = 308). We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS). We also established and externally validated a nomogram based on these risk predictors. The nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan‒Meier analysis.

Results

Multivariate COX regression showed that HBV DNA ≥10,000 IU/mL (P < 0.001), HALP score ≤38.20 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.003), clinically significant portal hypertension (P = 0.001), Edmondson-Steiner grade (III-IV) (P = 0.007), satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-operative tumor recurrence. The AUC of our nomogram for predicting the 2-year and 5-year DFS was 0.756 and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.764 and 0.705, respectively, in the external validation cohort. We divided the patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the risk score calculated by the nomogram. There were statistically significant differences in the DFS and overall survival (OS) among the three groups of patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

We developed and externally validated a new nomogram, which is accurate and can predict ER in BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients after curative liver resection.

Impact of preoperative haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score on oral cancer prognosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the preoperative haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score as a prognostic indicator in oral squamous cell carcinoma treated by radical surgery.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Patients (83 men, 32 women; 65.80 ± 11.47 years) who underwent radical surgery between 2012 and 2022 were included. Factors affecting overall survival and disease-free survival according to the haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score were examined. Patients were categorised into low- and high-score groups using optimal cut-off values obtained from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

The low-score group had poorer overall and disease-free survival (p < 0.001 each). Multivariate analysis identified alcohol consumption (hazard ratio [HR], 3.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56-9.41, p = 0.003); vascular invasion (HR, 3.97; 95% CI: 1.60-9.85, p = 0.003); and the haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score (HR, 0.39; 95% CI: 0.20-0.78, p = 0.007) as independent prognostic factors for overall survival and vascular (HR, 3.66; 95% CI: 1.79-7.50, p < 0.001) and lymphovascular (HR, 2.44; 95% CI: 1.36-4.41, p = 0.003) invasion as independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score may be a significant prognostic factor for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma undergoing radical surgery.

Pretreatment systemic inflammatory markers predict survival in endometrial cancer: A Japanese Gynecologic Oncology Group 2043 exploratory data analysis

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether pretreatment systemic inflammatory markers are associated with survival outcomes in patients with endometrial cancer (EC).

METHODS

Data from the Japanese Gynecologic Oncology Group 2043 were analyzed. Patients who did not receive chemotherapy or were lost to follow-up were excluded. Associations of pretreatment systemic inflammatory markers, including the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score, with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. The optimal NLR, PLR, and HALP score cutoff values for PFS and OS were determined. Survival estimates were calculated and compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.

RESULTS

We included 712 patients (median age: 55 [range, 28-74] years; body mass index [BMI]: 21.1 [15.2-38.6] kg/m2). For PFS, optimal NLR, PLR, and HALP score cutoff values were 1.48, 0.017, and 35.52, respectively, and for OS, the values were 1.88, 0.026, and 19.87, respectively. At optimal PFS-related cutoff values, NLR was associated with BMI; PLR with age, BMI, and clinical stage; and HALP score with BMI, clinical stage, and lymph node metastasis. At optimal OS-related cutoff values, NLR was associated with BMI, PLR, and BMI; the HALP score was associated with age and BMI. The HALP score was a prognostic factor for PFS (p = 0.025), while PLR and HALP scores were prognostic factors for OS (both p = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Pretreatment systemic inflammatory markers are associated with survival outcomes in patients with EC, with the HALP score being a prognostic factor for PFS and OS.

Development and Validation of a Recurrence-Free Survival Prediction Model for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

A recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction model was developed and validated for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in combination with surgery.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 282 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) combined with surgery, constructed three models incorporating pathological factors, investigated the discrimination and calibration of each model, and compared the clinical utility of each model using the net reclassification index (NRI) and the integrated discrimination index (IDI).

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis showed that pathologic complete response (pCR) and lymph node tumor regression grading (LN-TRG) (p < 0.05) were independent prognostic factors for RFS. LASSO regression screened six correlates of LN-TRG, vascular invasion, nerve invasion, degree of differentiation, platelet grade, and a total diameter of residual cancer in lymph nodes to build model three, which was consistent in terms of efficacy in the training set and validation set. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves showed that all three models were able to distinguish well between high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.01). The NRI and IDI showed that the clinical utility of model 2 was slightly better than that of model 1 (p > 0.05), and model 3 was significantly better than that of model 2 (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical prediction models incorporating LN-TRG factors have high predictive efficacy, can help identify patients at high risk of recurrence after neoadjuvant therapy, and can be used as a supplement to the  AJCC/TNM staging system while offering a scientific rationale for early postoperative intervention.

Prognostic Significance of Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte and Platelet (HALP) Score in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

HALP score consisting of hemoglobin content, albumin content, lymphocyte count, and platelet count can comprehensively evaluate the inflammatory response and nutritional status. Many researchers have indicated that the HALP score is an effective predictor of the overall prognosis of various tumors. However, there is no relevant research to suggest whether the HALP score can predict the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 273 HCC patients who underwent surgical resection. Hemoglobin content, albumin content, lymphocyte count, and platelet count in peripheral blood were measured for each patient. The relationship between the HALP score and overall survival (OS) was investigated.

Results

With a mean of 56.69 ± 1.25 months follow-up, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was 98.9%, 76.9%, and 55.3% for all patients, respectively. HALP scores (HR=1.708, 95% CI=1.192-2.448, P=0.004) were significant independent risk factors of OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 99.3%, 84.3%, and 63.4% for patients with high HALP scores; and 98.6%, 69.8%, and 47.5% for patients with low HALP scores, respectively (P=0.018). In TNM I-II stage patients, compared with high HALP scores, low HALP scores have worse OS (P=0.039). In AFP positive patients, compared with high HALP scores, low HALP scores have worse OS (P=0.042).

Conclusion

Our research showed the preoperative HALP score is an independent predictive factor of overall prognosis, and a low HALP score indicates a worse prognosis in HCC patients who underwent surgical resection.

What is hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, platelet (HALP) score? A comprehensive literature review of HALP's prognostic ability in different cancer types

Since its inception, the Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, Platelet Score (HALP) has gained attention as a new prognostic biomarker to predict several clinical outcomes in a multitude of cancers. In our review, we searched PubMed for articles between the first paper on HALP in 2015 through September 2022, yielding 32 studies in total that evaluated HALP's association with various cancers, including Gastric, Colorectal, Bladder, Prostate, Kidney, Esophageal, Pharyngeal, Lung, Breast, and Cervical cancers, among others. This review highlights the collective association HALP has with demographic factors such as age and sex in addition to TNM staging, grade, and tumor size. Furthermore, this review summarizes HALP's prognostic ability to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, recurrence-free survival, among other outcomes. In some studies, HALP has also been able to predict response to immunotherapy and chemotherapy. This review article also aims to serve as a comprehensive and encyclopedic report on the literature that has evaluated HALP as a biomarker in various cancers, highlighting the heterogeneity surrounding HALP's utilization. Because HALP requires only a complete blood count and albumin - already routinely collected for cancer patients - HALP shows potential as a cost-effective biomarker to aid clinicians in improving outcomes for immuno-nutritionally deficient patients.

Increases prognostic value of clinical-pathological nomogram in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

This study was intended to construct a brand new prognostic nomogram after combine clinical and pathological characteristics to increases prognostic value in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Methods

A total of 1,634 patients were included. Subsequently, the tumor tissues of all patients were prepared into tissue microarrays. AIPATHWELL software was employed to explore tissue microarrays and calculate the tumor-stroma ratio. X-tile was adopted to find the optimal cut-off value. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out remarkable characteristics for constructing the nomogram in the total populations. A novel prognostic nomogram with clinical and pathological characteristics was constructed on the basis of the training cohort (n=1,144). What's more performance was validated in the validation cohort (n=490). Clinical-pathological nomogram were assessed by concordance index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve and decision curve analysis.

Results

The patients can divide into two groups with cut-off value of 69.78 for the tumor-stroma ratio. It is noteworthy that the survival difference was noticeable (P<0.001). A clinical-pathological nomogram was constructed by combining clinical and pathological characteristics to predict the overall survival. In comparison with TNM stage, the concordance index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic of the clinical-pathological nomogram showed better predictive value (P<0.001). High quality of calibration plots in overall survival was noticed. As demonstrated by the decision curve analysis, the nomogram has better value than the TNM stage.

Conclusions

As evidently revealed by the research findings, tumor-stroma ratio is an independent prognostic factor in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The clinical-pathological nomogram has an incremental value compared TNM stage in predicting overall survival.

The effect of haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet score on the prognosis in patients with multiple myeloma

INTRODUCTION

In multiple myeloma cases, a variety of prognostic parameters have been identified, which contain the Durie-Salmon classification and the international staging system (ISS) that takes the serum ß2 microglobulin and albumin levels, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR). This study investigates the effect of haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet (HALP) score which is a marker of inflammation status and nutrition, at the time of diagnosis for the patients with multiple myeloma on prognosis.

METHODS

A total of 200 multiple myeloma patients with HALP scores calculated from serum haemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte count and platelet levels at the time of diagnosis were retrospectively examined. The effect of HALP score on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival and its relationship between the previously evaluated prognostic parameters were investigated.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off value with the ROC curves for the HALP score was 28.8. The patients were divided into two groups according to the optimal value of the HALP score (low-score group: HALP ≤28.8 [n: 134] and high-score group HALP >28.8 [n: 66]). In the group with the high HALP score, the OS was statistically longer than the low HALP score group (84 months and 53 months; p = 0.0001). In addition, when the effects of NLR, PLR, HALP score and ISS stage on OS were examined by multivariate analysis, all these markers were found to be statistically significant predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

HALP score may be a valuable prognostic marker for patients with multiple myeloma.

Hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score and cancer prognosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 13,110 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We sought to explore the prognostic role of the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score on survival outcomes in patients with solid tumors by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched for relevant articles through 02 Nov 2022. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled to assess the association of the HALP score with survival outcomes in solid tumors using Stata 15.0. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and the secondary outcomes were cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression/disease/recurrence-free survival (PFS/DFS/RFS).

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies (31 cohorts) comprising 13,038 patients were enrolled. A low HALP score was associated with decreased OS (HR, 1.61; 95 % CI, 1.44-1.81; P < 0.001), CSS (HR, 1.80; 95 % CI: 1.54-2.09; P < 0.001) and PFS/DFS/RFS (HR, 1.61; 95 % CI: 1.45-1.80; P < 0.001). The prognostic value of HALP on OS was observed across various tumor types and tumor stages. meta-regression found that tumor stage was the major source of the heterogeneity for OS.

CONCLUSION

A low pretreatment HALP score is a reliable and negative prognostic biomarker for survival outcomes in patients with cancer.

Comprehensive risk evaluation for metachronous carcinogenesis after endoscopic submucosal dissection of superficial pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) is associated with a high likelihood of metachronous carcinogenesis, which is known to have a poor prognosis. This study aimed to identify comprehensive risk evaluation indicators for metachronous carcinogenesis after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) of superficial PSCC.

METHODS

The risk of metachronous carcinogenesis was evaluated in 144 patients with superficial PSCC (with no history of PSCC or esophageal squamous cell carcinoma) who underwent initial ESD from 2008 to 2020. Multiple lugol-voiding lesions (LVLs) in the background pharyngeal and esophageal epithelium were evaluated as endoscopic indicators. The hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score was analyzed as a serum marker.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 4.3 years. The coincidence rate for pharyngeal and esophageal LVL grade was 55%. The cumulative 3-year metachronous PSCC rate was 18.9%. The cumulative 3-year second metachronous PSCC rate was 43.9%. Forward stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified pharyngeal LVL grade and a lower HALP score as significant independent predictors. Pharyngeal LVL grade was superior to esophageal LVL grade as a predictor of metachronous PSCC. A lower HALP score was significantly associated with younger age in forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a history of superficial PSCC remain at risk for metachronous carcinogenesis over time, and long-term follow-up is imperative. Comprehensive evaluation of endoscopic features with a novel serum marker, namely, the HALP score, can help predict metachronous carcinogenesis.

A clinical nomogram for predicting tumor regression grade in esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma treated with immune neoadjuvant immunotherapy

Background

There are various treatment options for esophageal squamous cell cancer. including surgery, peri-operative chemotherapy, and radiation. More recently, neoadjuvant immunotherapy has also been shown improve outcomes. In this study, we addressed the question, "Can we predict which patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer will benefit from neoadjuvant immunotherapy?".

Methods

All patients with thoracic esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (T2N+M0-T3-4N0/+M0) (according to the eighth edition of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines) who underwent immune neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy with programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) combined with paclitaxel plus cisplatin or nedaplatin in the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, China, between November 2019 and August 2021 were included in this study. All patients underwent surgical resection. We developed a response [tumor regression grade (TRG)] prediction model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression incorporating factors associated with response. The accuracy of the prediction model was then validated.

Results

We included 79 patients who underwent neoadjuvant immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy, aged 48-78 years (62.05±6.67), including 21 males and 58 females. There were five cases of immune-related pneumonia, of which three cases were diagnosed as immune-related pneumonia during the perioperative period, and one case of immune-related thyroid dysfunction changes. After LASSO regression, the factors that were independently associated with TRG were clinical T stage before neoadjuvant therapy, clinical N stage before neoadjuvant therapy, albumin level difference from before to after neoadjuvant therapy, white blood cell (WBC) count before neoadjuvant therapy, and T stage before surgery. We constructed a prediction model, plotted the nomogram, and verified its accuracy. Its Brier score was 0.13, its calibration slope was 0.98, and its C-index was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82-0.97).

Conclusions

Our prediction model can predict the likelihood of TRG in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer after immunotherapy combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Using this prediction model, we plan to conduct a subsequent neoadjuvant radiotherapy in patients with of TRG 2-3 patients with neoadjuvant radiotherapy.

Long-term effect of hospital volume on the postoperative prognosis of 158,618 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China

Background

The impact of hospital volume on the long-term survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has not been well assessed in China, especially for stage I-III stage ESCC. We performed a large sample size study to assess the relationships between hospital volume and the effectiveness of ESCC treatment and the hospital volume value at the lowest risk of all-cause mortality after esophagectomy in China.

Aim

To investigate the prognostic value of hospital volume for assessing postoperative long-term survival of ESCC patients in China.

Methods

The date of 158,618 patients with ESCC were collected from a database (1973-2020) established by the State Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Prevention and Treatment, the database includes 500,000 patients with detailed clinical information of pathological diagnosis and staging, treatment approaches and survival follow-up for esophageal and gastric cardia cancers. Intergroup comparisons of patient and treatment characteristics were conducted with the X² test and analysis of variance. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to draw the survival curves for the variables tested. A Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The relationship between hospital volume and all-cause mortality was assessed using restricted cubic splines from Cox proportional hazards models. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

Results

In both 1973-1996 and 1997-2020, patients with stage I-III stage ESCC who underwent surgery in high volume hospitals had better survival than those who underwent surgery in low volume hospitals (both P<0.05). And high volume hospital was an independent factor for better prognosis in ESCC patients. The relationship between hospital volume and the risk of all-cause mortality was half-U-shaped, but overall, hospital volume was a protective factor for esophageal cancer patients after surgery (HR<1). The concentration of hospital volume associated with the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was 1027 cases/year in the overall enrolled patients.

Conclusion

Hospital volume can be used as an indicator to predict the postoperative survival of ESCC patients. Our results suggest that the centralized management of esophageal cancer surgery is meaningful to improve the survival of ESCC patients in China, but the hospital volume should preferably not be higher than 1027 cases/year.

Core tip

Hospital volume is considered to be a prognostic factor for many complex diseases. However, the impact of hospital volume on long-term survival after esophagectomy has not been well evaluated in China. Based on a large sample size of 158,618 ESCC patients in China spanning 47 years (1973-2020), We found that hospital volume can be used as a predictor of postoperative survival in patients with ESCC, and identified hospital volume thresholds with the lowest risk of death from all causes. This may provide an important basis for patients to choose hospitals and have a significant impact on the centralized management of hospital surgery.

Distinguishing optimal esophagectomy candidates in elderly patients: A nomogram based on propensity score matching

BACKGROUND

A survival benefit from esophagectomy was observed in elderly patients. But it's unclear how to identify specific patients who can benefit. Thus, we aimed to establish a predictive model to identify optimal candidates for esophagectomy.

METHODS

Patients (age ≥75 years) with esophageal cancer in Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were used to establish the predictive model. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was applied to eliminate the imbalance between esophagectomy group and non-esophagectomy group. We hypothesized that elderly patients could benefit from esophagectomy with longer cancer specific survival (CSS) time than those who did not receive esophagectomy. Patients received surgery were divided into beneficial group and non-beneficial group according to the median CSS time of non-esophagectomy group. Prognostic factors affecting patients' long-term survival were identified. Among esophagectomy group, a logistic regression model based on these factors was established to build a nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 7,025 eligible patients were extracted from the SEER database, with 831 patients received esophagectomy. Surgery was independently associated with better long-term survival (median CSS time in the matched population: 35 vs. 8 months, p < 0.001). As a result, 361 (68.6%) patients were divided into beneficial group (CSS >8 months). Factors including age, tumor site, histology, differentiation grade, TNM stage, and tumor size were used to formulate the nomogram, which was named as esophagectomy candidates screening score (ECSS). The validation from two aspects showed the model a useful and stable one.

CONCLUSION

A predictive model was established to distinguish optimal candidates for esophagectomy among elderly patients with EC.