Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives

A machine-learning-derived online prediction model for depression risk in COPD patients: A retrospective cohort study from CHARLS

BACKGROUND

Depression associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a detrimental complication that significantly impairs patients' quality of life. This study aims to develop an online predictive model to estimate the risk of depression in COPD patients.

METHODS

This study included 2921 COPD patients from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), analyzing 36 behavioral, health, psychological, and socio-demographic indicators. LASSO regression filtered predictive factors, and six machine learning models-Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Multilayer Perceptron, LightGBM, XGBoost, and Random Forest-were applied to identify the best model for predicting depression risk in COPD patients. Temporal validation used 2013 CHARLS data. We developed a personalized, interpretable risk prediction platform using SHAP.

RESULTS

A total of 2921 patients with COPD were included in the analysis, of whom 1451 (49.7 %) presented with depressive symptoms. 11 variables were selected to develop 6 machine learning models. Among these, the XGBoost model exhibited exceptional predictive performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability, with an AUROC range of 0.747-0.811. In validation sets encompassing diverse population characteristics, XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (70.63 %), sensitivity (59.05 %), and F1 score (63.17 %).

LIMITATIONS

The target population for the model is COPD patients. And the clinical benefits of interventions based on the prediction results remain uncertain.

CONCLUSION

We developed an online prediction platform for clinical application, allowing healthcare professionals to swiftly and efficiently evaluate the risk of depression in COPD patients, facilitating timely interventions and treatments.

Machine learning for modeling and identifying risk factors of pancreatic fistula

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic fistula is the most common complication of pancreatic surgeries that causes more serious conditions, including bleeding due to visceral vessel erosion and peritonitis.

AIM

To develop a machine learning (ML) model for postoperative pancreatic fistula and identify significant risk factors of the complication.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective clinical study was conducted which included 150 patients, who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy. Logistic regression, random forest, and CatBoost were employed for modeling the biochemical leak (symptomless fistula) and fistula grade B/C (clinically significant complication). The performance was estimated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) after 5-fold cross-validation (20% testing and 80% training data). The risk factors were evaluated with the most accurate algorithm, based on the parameter “Importance” (Im), and Kendall correlation, P < 0.05.

RESULTS

The CatBoost algorithm was the most accurate with an AUC of 74%-86%. The study provided results of ML-based modeling and algorithm selection for pancreatic fistula prediction and risk factor evaluation. From 14 parameters we selected the main pre- and intraoperative prognostic factors of all the fistulas: Tumor vascular invasion (Im = 24.8%), age (Im = 18.6%), and body mass index (Im = 16.4%), AUC = 74%. The ML model showed that biochemical leak, blood and drain amylase level (Im = 21.6% and 16.4%), and blood leukocytes (Im = 11.2%) were crucial predictors for subsequent fistula B/C, AUC = 86%. Surgical techniques, morphology, and pancreatic duct diameter less than 3 mm were insignificant (Im < 5% and no correlations detected). The results were confirmed by correlation analysis.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the key predictors of postoperative pancreatic fistula and establishes a robust ML-based model for individualized risk prediction. These findings contribute to the advancement of personalized perioperative care and may guide targeted preventive strategies.

Computed tomography-based radiomics and body composition analysis for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background

Preoperative risk assessment of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is still lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a combined model based on radiomics, pancreatic duct diameter, and body composition analysis for the prediction of CR-POPF in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

Methods

Multivariable logistic regression was used to construct a combined model in conjunction with radiomics score (Rad-score), pancreatic duct diameter, and visceral fat area/total abdominal muscle area index (VFA/TAMAI). The models were internally validated using 1,000 bootstrap resamples. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The preoperative combined model was validated by 1,000 bootstrap resampling with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.839 (95% confidence interval: 0.757-0.907). The calibration curves and DCA showed that the combined model outperformed the clinical model and radiomics model. The combined model was presented as a web-based calculator (https://whyyjyljz.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/).

Conclusions

We explored a method of combining radiomics features, pancreatic duct diameter, and body composition analysis predictors in preoperative assessment for risk of CR-POPF and developed a combined model that showed relatively good performance, but future studies with a larger sample size are needed to verify the stability and generalizability of this model.