Humans and monkeys show similar skill in estimating uncertain outcomes

Quantity judgments in the context of risk/reward decision making in striped field mice: first "count," then hunt

We simulated the situation of risky hunting in the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius in order to examine whether these animals are able to make a choice between small and large quantities of live prey (ants). In the first (preliminary) experiment we investigated to what extent mice were interested in ants as a live prey and how their hunting activity depended on the quantity of these edible but rather aggressive insects. We placed mice one by one into arenas together with ant groups of different quantities, from 10 to 60. Surprisingly, animals, both wild-caught and laboratory-reared, displayed rather skilled predatory attacks: mice killed and ate from 0.37 ± 003 to 4 ± 0.5 ants per minute. However, there was a threshold number of ants in the arenas when rodents expressed signs of discomfort and started to panic, likely because ants bit them. This threshold corresponds to the dynamic density (about 400 individuals per m² per min) in the vicinity of anthills and ants' routes in natural environment. In the second experiment mice had to choose between different quantities of ants placed in two transparent tunnels. Ants here served both as food items and as a source of danger. As far as we know, this is the first experimental paradigm based on evaluation of quantity judgments in the context of risk/reward decision making where the animals face a trade-off between the hedonistic value of the prey and the danger it presents. We found that when mice have to choose between 5 vs. 15, 5 vs. 30, and 10 vs. 30 ants, they always tend to prefer the smaller quantity, thus displaying the capacity for distinguishing more from less in order to ensure comfortable hunting. The results of this study are ecologically relevant as they reflect situations and challenges faced by free-living small rodents.

Do Social Conditions Affect Capuchin Monkeys' (Cebus apella) Choices in a Quantity Judgment Task?

Beran et al. (2012) reported that capuchin monkeys closely matched the performance of humans in a quantity judgment test in which information was incomplete but a judgment still had to be made. In each test session, subjects first made quantity judgments between two known options. Then, they made choices where only one option was visible. Both humans and capuchin monkeys were guided by past outcomes, as they shifted from selecting a known option to selecting an unknown option at the point at which the known option went from being more than the average rate of return to less than the average rate of return from earlier choices in the test session. Here, we expanded this assessment of what guides quantity judgment choice behavior in the face of incomplete information to include manipulations to the unselected quantity. We manipulated the unchosen set in two ways: first, we showed the monkeys what they did not get (the unchosen set), anticipating that "losses" would weigh heavily on subsequent trials in which the same known quantity was presented. Second, we sometimes gave the unchosen set to another monkey, anticipating that this social manipulation might influence the risk-taking responses of the focal monkey when faced with incomplete information. However, neither manipulation caused difficulty for the monkeys who instead continued to use the rational strategy of choosing known sets when they were as large as or larger than the average rate of return in the session, and choosing the unknown (riskier) set when the known set was not sufficiently large. As in past experiments, this was true across a variety of daily ranges of quantities, indicating that monkeys were not using some absolute quantity as a threshold for selecting (or not) the known set, but instead continued to use the daily average rate of return to determine when to choose the known versus the unknown quantity.