[Incidence and trend of severe postpartum hemorrhage between 2016 and 2019 in China]

Developing and Validating Nomogram to Predict Severe Postpartum Hemorrhage in Women With Placenta Previa Undergoing Cesarean Delivery: A Multicenter Retrospective Case-Control Study

Objective

Developing and validating nomogram to predict severe postpartum hemorrhage (SPPH) in women with placenta previa (PP) undergoing cesarean delivery.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter retrospective case-control study in five hospitals. In this study, 865 patients from January, 2018 to June, 2020 were enrolled in the development cohort, and 307 patients from July, 2020 to June, 2021 were enrolled in the validation cohort. Independent risk factors for SPPH were obtained by using the multivariate logistic regression, and preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were developed, respectively. We compared the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the two nomograms in the development cohort and validation cohort. Then, we tested whether the intraoperative nomogram could be used before operation.

Results

There were 204 patients (23.58%) in development cohort and 80 patients (26.06%) in validation cohort experienced SPPH. In development cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were 0.831 (95% CI, 0.804, 0.855) and 0.880 (95% CI, 0.854, 0.905), respectively. In validation cohort, the AUC of the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were 0.825 (95% CI, 0.772, 0.877) and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.808, 0.898), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.839 (95% CI, 0.789, 0.888) when the intraoperative nomogram was used before operation.

Conclusion

We developed the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram to predict the risk of SPPH in women with PP undergoing cesarean delivery. By comparing the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the two nomograms in the development cohort and validation cohort, we think that the intraoperative nomogram performed better. Moreover, application of the intraoperative nomogram before operation can still achieve good prediction effect, which can be improved if the severity of placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) can be accurately distinguished preoperatively. We expect to conduct further prospective external validation studies on the intraoperative nomogram to evaluate its application value.