[Relative factors of transmural intestinal necrosis in acute superior mesenteric vein thrombosis]

A rapid preliminary prediction model for intestinal necrosis in acute mesenteric ischemia: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a life-threatening condition. However, there is no accurate method to predict intestinal necrosis in AMI patients that may facilitate early surgical intervention. This study thus aimed to explore a simple and accurate model to predict intestinal necrosis in patients with AMI.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study was performed on the data of 132 AMI patients treated between October 2011 and June 2020. The patients were divided into the intestinal necrosis and non-intestinal necrosis groups. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were analyzed by univariate analysis, and the variables with statistical significance were further analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The independent predictors of intestinal necrosis were determined and a logistic prediction model was established. Finally, the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model in predicting intestinal necrosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that white blood cell (WBC) count, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, neutrophil ratio, prothrombin time (PT), and LnD-dimer were associated with intestinal necrosis. According to logistic regression multivariate analysis, WBC count, BUN level and LnD-dimer were independent predictors of intestinal necrosis. These parameters were used to establish a clinical prediction model of intestinal necrosis (CPMIN) as follows: model score = 0.349 × BUN (mmol/L) + 0.109 × WBC × 109 (109/L) + 0.394 × LnD - Dimer (ug/L) - 7.883. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of the model was 0.889 (95% confidence interval: 0.833-0.944). Model scores greater than - 0.1992 predicted the onset of intestinal necrosis. The accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of the model were 82.6%, 78.2%, and 88.3%, respectively. The proportion of intestinal necrosis in the high-risk patient group (CPMIN score ≥ - 0.1992) was much greater than that in the low-risk patient group (CPMIN score < - 0.1992; 82.7% vs. 15.0%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The CPMIN can effectively predict intestinal necrosis and guide early surgical intervention to improve patient prognosis. Patients with AMI who are classified as high-risk should be promptly treated with surgery to avoid the potential complications caused by delayed operation. Patients classified as low-risk group can receive non-surgical treatment. This model may help to lower the morbidity and mortality from AMI. However, this model's accuracy should be validated by larger sample size studies in the future.

Predictors of bowel necrosis in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a serious medical condition that can progress to transmural bowel necrosis. Prediction of the onset of bowel necrosis in AMI is crucial to justify surgical intervention before more severe consequences supervene. This systematic review aimed to identify the significant predictors of bowel necrosis in AMI in the current literature. In adherence to the PRISMA guidelines, electronic databases were searched for studies that reported significant independent predictors of bowel necrosis in AMI. The quality of the studies was assessed with MINORS score. The main outcomes of the review were the incidence and predictors of bowel necrosis in patients with AMI and the mortality rate. This systematic review comprised nine articles that included 963 patients of a median age of 57 years. Irreversible bowel necrosis was found in 402 (41.7%) patients. The significant predictors of bowel necrosis were subdivided into eight clinical, seven biochemical, and six radiologic parameters. Eight parameters were reported by two or more studies, whereas 13 were reported by a single study. Based on the weight and odds ratio of the predictive parameters, a prognostic scoring system, Emile-Khan Score, was proposed. Several clinical, biochemical, and radiologic predictors of bowel necrosis were reported in the literature. Pooling of odds ratios was feasible for eight factors that were reported by more than one study. Further studies are needed to ascertain the utility of the other predictive factors.Level of evidence: Level II (systematic review and meta-analysis).