Prognostic performance of clinical indices and model scorings for acute-on-chronic liver failure: A study of 164 patients

Definitions, Etiologies, and Outcomes of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a major public health concern. We aimed to assess the definitions, etiologic spectrum, organ failure (OF), and outcomes of ACLF globally.

METHODS

Three databases were searched for studies on ACLF from 1990 until September 2022. Information regarding definitions, acute precipitants, underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), OF, and mortality were extracted. Meta-analyses were performed for pooled prevalence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) using random-effects model for each definition of ACLF.

RESULTS

Of the 11,451 studies identified, 114 articles (142 cohorts encompassing 210,239 patients) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies (53.2%) used the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) definition, followed by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) (33.3%). Systemic infection was the major acute precipitant, and alcohol use was the major cause of CLD in EASL-defined studies, whereas alcohol was both the major acute precipitant and cause of CLD in APASL-defined studies. Liver failure was the major OF in APASL-based studies, whereas renal failure was predominant in EASL-based studies. Thirty-day mortality varied across definitions: APASL: 38.9%, 95% CI, 31.2%-46.9%; EASL: 47.9%, 95% CI, 42.2%-53.5%; and NACSELD: 52.2%, 95% CI, 51.9%-52.5%. Diagnostic overlap between definitions ranged from 7.7% to 80.2%. Meta-regression suggested that the World Health Organization region influenced 30-day mortality in studies using EASL definition.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in the definition of ACLF proposed by different expert societies and regional preferences in its use result in differences in clinical phenotype and outcomes. A uniform definition would enhance the comparability and interpretation of global data.

Prognostic study of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: Usefulness of the fibrosis-4 index

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by an acute deterioration of liver function in cirrhotic patients. Since treatment of this condition is difficult, its prevention is of paramount importance. The predictors of ACLF are yet to be identified. To determine the prognosis of cirrhotic and ACLF patients, we conducted a retrospective study to analyze each parameter in ACLF patients. Cirrhotic patients with serum total-bilirubin level ≥5.0 mg/dL and prothrombin time (PT) value ≤40% after acute insults were diagnosed with ACLF, whereas patients who met one of the above criteria were diagnosed with extended type of ACLF (EX-ACLF). Overall, in this study, 18 ACLF and 16 EX-ACLF patients retrospectively investigated between 2008 and 2020, and each data was analyzed during and before acute insults. In the analysis during acute insults, renal and coagulation functions showed significant differences between the ACLF and EX-ACLF groups. Furthermore, the mortality rate in the ACLF group was higher than that in the EX-ACLF group. In the analysis before acute insults, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index score, and AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) showed significant differences between the two groups. Among these, the FIB-4 index score correlated best with ACLF severity for identifying cirrhotic patients with poor prognosis. The FIB-4 index is the most useful predictor of ACLF severity. Careful management of cirrhotic patients with a high FIB-4 index score is considered beneficial to prevent ACLF occurrence.

Impact of compensated cirrhosis on survival in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is considered a main prognostic event in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). We analyzed the 28-day and 90-day mortality in ACLF patients with or without underlying cirrhosis enrolled in the ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database.

Methods

A total of 1,621 patients were prospectively enrolled and 637 (39.3%) of these patients had cirrhosis. Baseline characteristics, complications and mortality were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis.

Results

Alcohol consumption was more common in cirrhosis than non-cirrhosis (66.4% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.0001), while non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/cryptogenic CLD (10.9% vs 5.8%, p < 0.0001) and chronic HBV reactivation (18.8% vs 11.8%, p < 0.0001) were more common in non-cirrhosis. Only 0.8% of patients underwent liver transplantation. Overall, 28-day and 90-day mortality rates were 39.3% and 49.9%, respectively. Patients with cirrhosis had a greater chance of survival compared to those without cirrhosis both at 28-day (HR = 0.48; 95% CI 0.36–0.63, p < 0.0001) and 90-day (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.43–0.72, p < 0.0001), respectively. In alcohol CLD, non-cirrhosis patients had a higher 28-day (49.9% vs. 23.6%, p < 0.001) and 90-day (58.4% vs. 35.2%, p < 0.001) mortality rate than cirrhosis patients. ACLF patients with cirrhosis had longer mean survival than non-cirrhosis patients (25.5 vs. 18.8 days at 28-day and 65.2 vs. 41.2 days at 90-day). Exaggerated systemic inflammation might be the reason why non-cirrhosis patients had a poorer prognosis than those with cirrhosis after ACLF had occurred.

Conclusions

The 28-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF patients without cirrhosis were significantly higher than those with cirrhosis in alcoholic CLD. The presence of cirrhosis and its stage should be evaluated at baseline to guide for management. Thai Clinical Trials Registry, TCTR20191226002.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12072-021-10266-8.

Hepatitis B and Delta: clinical aspects of patients in the Brazilian Western Amazonia

OBJECTIVE

to analyze clinical, serological, biochemical and hematological aspects in patients infected with the hepatitis B (HBV) and Delta (HDV) viruses.

METHOD

cross-sectional, descriptive and retrospective study, performed with patients chronically infected with HBV and superinfected with HDV.

RESULTS

among the 112 patients selected, 74% were monoinfected with HBV (Group HBV) and 26% were superinfected with HDV (Group HBV+HDV). There was no difference in gender distribution. The average age was 36 years with standard deviation of ±12 years. The symptoms and signs presented a higher proportion in Group HBV+HDV (p=0.001). In both groups, most patients had non-reactive AgHBe. The records of biochemical and hematologic changes showed highest proportion in Group VHB+VHD Group (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

the study found that patients were in clinical stages of the disease different from those in the initial examination for monitoring their chronic condition. The clinical profile suggests greater severity of liver disease among the patients superinfected with HDV.

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio predicts the prognosis in HBV-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

The gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) is a new noninvasive marker for assessing liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the performance of GPR for prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

A total of 355 patients with HBV-associated ACLF were enrolled from two clinical centers and divided into training group (n=210) and validation group (n=145). Potential risk factors for 90-day mortality were analyzed.

RESULTS

Age, MELD score and GPR were independent risk factors associated with ACLF prognosis. A new scoring system (MELD-GPR) was developed. MELD-GPR=9.211-0.029×age-0.290×MELD-0.460×GPR. For ACLF patients with liver cirrhosis, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of MELD-GPR was 0.788, which was significantly higher than that of MELD and MELD-Na (0.706 and 0.666, respectively). Patients were stratified into three groups according to MELD-GPR scores (high risk: <-0.19, intermediate risk: -0.19-0.95, and low risk: >0.95), and the high-risk group (MELD-GPR<-0.19) had a poor prognosis (P<0.01). For ACLF patients without liver cirrhosis, MELD-GPR<0.95 predicted a poor prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating GPR into MELD may provide more accurate survival prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Prognostic factors of the short-term outcomes of patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of the baseline status of patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure on short-term outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted that included a total of 138 patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, from November 2013 to October 2016. The patients were divided into a poor prognosis group (74 patients) and a good prognosis group (64 patients) based on the disease outcome. General information, clinical indicators and prognostic scores of the patients' baseline status were analyzed, and a prediction model was established accordingly.

RESULTS

Elder age, treatment with artificial liver support systems and the frequency of such treatments, high levels of white blood cells, neutrophils, neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio, alanine aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, total bilirubin, urea, and prognostic scores as well as low levels of albumin and sodium were all significantly associated with the short-term outcomes of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure. The predictive model showed that logit (p) = 3.068 + 1.003 × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio - 0.892 × gamma-glutamyl transferase - 1.138 × albumin - 1.364 × sodium + 1.651 × artificial liver support therapy.

CONCLUSION

The neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio and serum levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase, albumin and sodium were independent risk factors predicting short-term outcomes of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure, and the administration of multiple treatments with artificial liver support therapy during the early stage is conducive to improved short-term outcomes.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: recent update

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) was first described in 1995 as a clinical syndrome distinct to classic acute decompensation. Characterized by complications of decompensation, ACLF occurs on a background of chronic liver dysfunction and is associated with high rates of organ failure and significant short-term mortality estimated between 45% and 90%. Despite the clinical relevance of the condition, it still remains largely undefined with continued disagreement regarding its precise etiological factors, clinical course, prognostic criteria and management pathways. It is concerning that, despite our relative lack of understanding of the condition, the burden of ACLF among cirrhotic patients remains significant with an estimated prevalence of 30.9%. This paper highlights our current understanding of ACLF, including its etiology, diagnostic and prognostic criteria and pathophysiology. It is evident that further refinement of the ACLF classification system is required in order to detect high-risk patients and improve short-term mortality rates. The field of metabolomics certainly warrants investigation to enhance diagnostic and prognostic parameters, while the use of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor is a promising future therapeutic intervention for patients with ACLF.

Portopulmonary hypertension and hepatorenal syndrome. Two faces of the same coin

Portopulmonary hypertension and hepatorenal syndrome are both severe local hypertensive complications of liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Both are characterized by vasoconstrictive manifestations regarding pulmonary and renal vascular network, respectively. This review addresses the mechanisms underlying the development of vasoconstriction that leads to local vascular hypertension in the lung and in the kidney with the result of organ dysfunction. Potential therapeutic options are available for the management of these two syndromes as a bridge for liver transplantation; clinical efficacy depends in part on the time and rapidity of intervention and in part on how serious the chain of events is that has triggered the entire vasoconstrictive process.

Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study that evaluated all admissions due to decompensated cirrhosis in 2 centers between 2011 and 2014. At admission each score was assessed, and the discrimination ability was compared by measuring the area under the ROC curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 779 hospitalizations were evaluated. Two hundred and twenty-two patients met criteria for ACLF (25.9%). The 30- and 90-day mortality were respectively 17.7 and 37.3%. CLIF-C ACLFs presented an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.684 (95% CI: 0.599-0.770) and 0.666 (95% CI: 0.588-0.744) respectively. No statistically significant differences were found when compared to traditional models. For patients without ACLF, CLIF-C ADs had an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.689 (95% CI: 0.614-0.763) and 0.672 (95% CI: 0.624-0.720) respectively. When compared to other scores, it was only statistically superior to MELD for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.0296).

CONCLUSIONS

The new CLIF-C scores were not statistically superior to the traditional models, with the exception of CLIF-C ADs for predicting 30-day mortality.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.