An accurate prognostic staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after curative hepatectomy

Peri-operative score for elderly patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is the mainstay for a curative treatment for patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), also in elderly population. Despite this, the evaluation of patient condition, liver function and extent of disease remains a demanding process with the aim to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality.

AIM

To identify new perioperative risk factors that could be associated with higher 90- and 180-d mortality in elderly patients eligible for liver resection for HCC considering traditional perioperative risk scores and to develop a risk score.

METHODS

A multicentric, retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records of patients aged 70 years or older who electively underwent liver resection for HCC; several independent variables correlated with death from all causes at 90 and 180 d were studied. The coefficients of Cox regression proportional-hazards model for six-month mortality were rounded to the nearest integer to assign risk factors' weights and derive the scoring algorithm.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis found variables (American Society of Anesthesiology score, high rate of comorbidities, Mayo end stage liver disease score and size of biggest lesion) that had independent correlations with increased 90- and 180-d mortality. A clinical risk score was developed with survival profiles.

CONCLUSION

This score can aid in stratifying this population in order to assess who can benefit from surgical treatment in terms of postoperative mortality.

Utility of scoring systems combining the product of tumor number and size with liver function for predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

Our previous study reported the effectiveness of the product of tumor number and size (NxS factor) as a predictor of the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatectomy. The aim of the present study was to validate the prognostic value of scoring systems based on the NxS factor for HCC. The records of 940 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine and Osaka International Cancer Institute were analyzed. The discriminatory abilities of the mathematical integrated model for tumor staging (MITS) score, which combines the NxS factor with liver function, and known prognostic systems, including the Japan Integrated Staging system, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program and the Tokyo system, were compared. Firstly, the present study demonstrated that a higher NxS factor was associated with decreased disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC (P<0.05). Subsequently, univariate analysis of DFS and OS curves revealed significant differences among all NxS factor and liver damage combinations (MITS-LD score; score 0 vs. score 1; score 1 vs. score 2; score 2 vs. score 3; all P<0.05) and all NxS factor and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score combinations (MITS-ALBI score; score 0 vs. score 1; score 1 vs. score 2; score 2 vs. score 3; all P<0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis demonstrated that there were significant differences in DFS [Hazard Ratio (HR); score 0 vs. score 1 (1.48); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.27); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.64); all P<0.05] and OS [HR; score 0 vs. score 1 (1.34); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.29); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.64); all P<0.05] among patients with different MITS-LD scores, and there were significant differences in DFS [HR; score 0 vs. score 1 (1.38); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.43); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.60); all P<0.05] among patients with different MITS-ALBI scores. The NxS factor may be a comprehensive measure of tumor burden for predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC following liver resection, and MITS scores could be an improved scoring system for predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

Outcomes following liver resection for multinodular Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer-B hepatocellular carcinoma

Management of multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the intermediate Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC)-B stage is controversial. The aim of the present study as to identify the subgroup of patients with BCLC-B HCC who could benefit from liver resection. The present study retrospectively analyzed the outcomes of 65 patients (training cohort) who underwent liver resection for multinodular BCLC-B HCC. Cox's regression analysis was conducted to identify the independent prognostic factors for overall survival and to develop the prognostic score. As some authors have reported that maximum tumor size (cm) plus tumor number (N+S) is a prognostic factor in patients with BCLC-B HCC who undergo chemoembolization, the usefulness of this factor in patients who underwent liver resection was also evaluated. Subsequently, the validity of the prognostic score was assessed in an independent validation cohort (n=132). Multivariate analysis revealed that positivity for hepatitis C virus antibody (HCV-ab), platelet count ≤10¹⁰/l, N+S >8, and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) >400 mAU/ml were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The prognostic score differentiated two groups (≤2, ≥3) with distinct outcomes (median survival time 68.3 months vs. 29.1 months; P<0.0001). This result was confirmed in an external validation cohort. Therefore, surgery can promote long-term survival in patients with multinodular HCC although the indications for surgery are limited. HCV-Ab status, preoperative platelet count, DCP level and N+S may be useful for patient selection.

A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after curative hepatectomy

We previously reported the effectiveness of the product of tumor number and size (NxS factor) for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients following hepatectomy. The present study aimed to propose a new score based on the NxS factor to predict HCC recurrence following hepatectomy. A total of 406 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine were retrospectively analyzed to develop the new score. Among clinicopathological factors, including the NxS factor, the marker subset that achieved the best performance for prediction of early recurrence was assessed, and a prognostic model for HCC recurrence after curative hepatectomy (REACH) was developed. As the validation set, 425 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine and Shimonoseki Medical Center were analyzed, and the prognostic ability of the REACH score was compared with that of well-known staging systems. Following analysis, the REACH score was constructed using six covariates (NxS factor, microscopic hepatic vein invasion, differentiation, serum albumin, platelet count and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min). In the validation set, the REACH score predicted early recurrence in 73 of 81 samples, with a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 58%. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve of the REACH score was 0.78 and 0.74, respectively, for 1- and 2-year recurrence after hepatectomy; each AUC was higher than that of any of the other staging systems. Survival analysis indicated the REACH score had the best predictive value in disease-free and overall survival. The present findings demonstrated that the REACH score may be used to classify patients with HCC into high- and low-risk of recurrence, and to predict subsequent survival following hepatic resection.

Prognostic nomograms for patients with resectable hepatocelluar carcinoma incorporating systemic inflammation and tumor characteristics

Background

The model to predict the prognosis of resectable hepatocelluar carcinoma (HCC) has not been determined.

Methods

Predictors were selected using Cox model. Nomograms were generated in the training set and validated in the validation set. The predictive ability of the nomogram was determined by concordance index and calibration curve.

Results

Independent factors for overall survival including alpha-fetoprotein level (hazard ratio (HR):1.292), tumor size (HR:1.092), tumor number (HR:1.472), microvascular invasion (HR:1.660), neutrophil to lymphocyte count ratio (NLR) (HR:1.428), major vascular invasion (HR:2.485) and satellite lesions(HR:1.392) were selected into the nomogram for survival. The c-index in the training set and validation set were 0.767 and 0.719, respectively, which were statistically higher than those of the four conventional staging systems.(Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer: 0.644 and 0.609; the seventh American Joint Committee on Cancer: 0.678 and 0.674; Cancer of the Liver Italian Program: 0.692 and 0.648; Hong Kong Liver Cancer: 0.689 and 0.639, p < 0.001 for all). A nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year recurrence free survival was generated with the c-index of 0.746 for the training set and 0.718 for the validation set, respectively.

Conclusions

We have generated nomograms predicting prognosis for HCC treated by hepatectomy with a higher predictive power.

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Liver Cancer by a Novel Discrete Bayes Decision Rule for Personalized Medicine

We discuss a novel diagnostic method for predicting the early recurrence of liver cancer with high accuracy for personalized medicine. The difficulty with cancer treatment is that even if the types of cancer are the same, the cancers vary depending on the patient. Thus, remarkable attention has been paid to personalized medicine. Unfortunately, although the Tokyo Score, the Modified JIS, and the TNM classification have been proposed as liver scoring systems, none of these scoring systems have met the needs of clinical practice. In this paper, we convert continuous and discrete data to categorical data and keep the natively categorical data as is. Then, we propose a discrete Bayes decision rule that can deal with the categorical data. This may lead to its use with various types of laboratory data. Experimental results show that the proposed method produced a sensitivity of 0.86 and a specificity of 0.49 for the test samples. This suggests that our method may be superior to the well-known Tokyo Score, the Modified JIS, and the TNM classification in terms of sensitivity. Additional comparative study shows that if the numbers of test samples in two classes are the same, this method works well in terms of the F1 measure compared to the existing scoring methods.

Prediction and prophylaxis of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and postoperative recurrence in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected subjects

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and highly fatal malignancies worldwide. Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major cause of HCC. High HBV replication rate and related non-resolving inflammation are the major risk factors of HCC occurrence and postoperative recurrence. Early prophylactic options are effective in reducing HCC occurrence and improving survival. Therefore, it is important to identify HBV-infected patients who are at a higher risk of developing HCC and HBV-HCC patients who are more likely to relapse after surgery, thus providing them with more precise prophylactic strategies. Several prediction models of HCC occurrence have been constructed, with satisfactory predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability. However, there is a lack of consensus for their clinical implementation. Several staging systems have been proposed for HCC prognosis. However, the accuracy of these staging systems based on demographic characteristics and clinical measurements needs to be further improved, possibly by systematically incorporating viral and inflammatory factors. Since antiviral treatments are effective in promoting liver function reserve, reducing HCC occurrence and prolonging postoperative survival in some HBV-infected subjects, it is very important to identify subgroups of HBV-infected patients who would most benefit from antiviral treatment.