Effect of marital status on duodenal adenocarcinoma survival: A Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results population analysis

Development and validation of lymph node ratio-based nomograms for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma after surgery

Background

The prediction models for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma (PDA) are deficient. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in PDA patients and to establish and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for PDAs after surgical resection.

Methods

We extracted the demographics and clinicopathological information of PDA patients between 2004 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. After screening cases, we randomly divided the enrolled patients into training and validation groups. X-tile software was used to obtain the best cut-off value for the LNR. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used in the training group to screen out significant variables to develop nomograms. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, four risk groups were created based on quartiles of the model scores.

Results

A total of 978 patients were included in this study. The best cut-off value for the LNR was 0.47. LNR was a negative predictive factor for both OS and CSS. Age, sex, grade, chemotherapy and LNR were used to construct the OS nomogram, while age, grade, chemotherapy, the number of lymph nodes removed and LNR were incorporated into the CSS nomogram. The C-index, calibration curves and AUC of the training and validation sets revealed their good predictability. DCA showed that the predictive value of the nomograms was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). In addition, risk stratification demonstrated that patients with higher risk correlated with poor survival.

Conclusions

The LNR was an adverse prognostic determinant for PDAs. The nomograms provided an accurate and applicable tool to evaluate the prognosis of PDA patients after surgery.

Effect of Marital Status on Upper Digestive Tract Tumor Survival: Married Male Patients Exhibited a Better Prognosis

Purpose

Marital status has been associated with the outcomes in several types of cancer, but less is known about upper digestive tract tumors (UDTTs). The study aims to explore the effect of marital status on the survival outcomes of UDTT.

Methods

We collected patient cases of UDTT using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1975 and 2016. The univariate analyses of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were performed using the Kaplan–Meier method. The multivariate survival analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

A total of 282,189 patients were included, with 56.42, 16.30, 13.33, and 13.95% of patients married, never married, divorced or separated, and widowed, respectively. The significant differences were observed among married, never-married, divorced or separated, and widowed patients with regard to the year of diagnosis, sex, age, race, pathological type, anatomical site, the number of primary tumor, grade, rate of surgery performed, radiotherapy, chemotherapy (p < 0.001). The proportions of patients with 3-year and 5-year OS were 54.22 and 48.02% in the married group, 46.96 and 41.12% in the never-married group, 44.24 and 38.06% in the divorced or separated group, 34.59 and 27.57% in the widowed group, respectively (p < 0.001); the proportions of patients with 3-year and 5-year CSS were 70.76 and 68.13% in the married group, 62.44 and 59,93% in the never-married group, 63.13 and 60.53% in the divorced or separated group, 62.11 and 58.89% in the widowed group, respectively (p < 0.001); all these data indicated married patients exhibited favorable OS and CSS than never-married, divorced or separated, and widowed patients. Men in the married group showed better OS (HR, 1.16; 95%CI: 1.11–1.22) and CSS (HR, 0.96; 95%CI: 0.92–1.23) than those in the never-married group.

Conclusion

This study reveals that marital status is an independent prognostic factor for OS and CSS of patients with UDTT. Married male patients with UDTT trend to have a better prognosis.

A convenient clinical nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival of individual patients with small-intestine adenocarcinoma

Background

The objective of this study was to develop a practical nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with small-intestine adenocarcinoma.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with small-intestine adenocarcinoma between 2010 and 2015 were selected for inclusion in this study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The selected patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The predictors of CSS were identified by applying both forward and backward stepwise selection methods in a Cox regression model. The performance of the nomogram was measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision-curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Multivariate Cox regression indicated that factors including age at diagnosis, sex, marital status, insurance status, histology grade, SEER stage, surgery status, T stage, and N stage were independent covariates associated with CSS. These factors were used to construct a predictive model, which was built and virtualized by a nomogram. The C-index of the constructed nomogram was 0.850. The AUC values indicated that the established nomogram displayed better discrimination performance than did the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system in predicting CSS. The IDI and NRI also showed that the nomogram exhibited superior performance in both the training and validation cohorts. Furthermore, the calibrated nomogram predicted survival rates that closely corresponded to actual survival rates, while the DCA demonstrated the considerable clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

Conclusion

We have constructed a nomogram for predicting the CSS of small-intestine adenocarcinoma patients. This prognostic model may improve the ability of clinicians to predict survival in individual patients and provide them with treatment recommendations.

Factors Associated With Optimal Follow-up in Women With BI-RADS 3 Breast Findings

OBJECTIVE

Assess rate of and factors associated with optimal follow-up in patients with BI-RADS 3 breast findings.

METHODS

This Institutional Review Board-approved, retrospective cohort study, performed at an academic medical center, included all women undergoing breast imaging (ultrasound and mammography) in 2016. Index reports for unique patients with an assessment of BI-RADS 3 (retrieved via natural language processing) comprised the study population. Patient-specific and provider-related features were extracted from the Research Data Warehouse. The Institutional Cancer Registry identified patients diagnosed with breast cancer. Optimal follow-up rate was calculated as patients with follow-up imaging on the same breast 3 to 9 months from the index examination among patients with BI-RADS 3 assessments. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression determined features associated with optimal follow-up. Malignancy rate and time to malignancy detection were recorded.

RESULTS

Among 93,685 breast imaging examinations, 64,771 were from unique patients of which 2,967 had BI-RADS 3 findings (4.6%). Excluding patients with off-site index examinations and those with another breast examination <3 months from the index, 1,125 of 1,511 patients (74%) had optimal follow-up. In univariate and multivariable analysis, prior breast cancer was associated with optimal follow-up; younger age, Hispanic ethnicity, divorced status, and lack of insurance were associated with not having optimal follow-up. Malignancy rate was 0.86%, and mean time to detection was 330 days.

DISCUSSION

Follow-up of BI-RADS 3 breast imaging findings is optimal in only 74% of women. Further interventions to promote follow-up should target younger, unmarried women, those with Hispanic ethnicity, and women without history of breast cancer and without insurance coverage.