A modified prognostic model in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy

Specific mortality in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a retrospective analysis based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

BACKGROUND

The full potential of competing risk modeling approaches in the context of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients has yet to be fully harnessed. This study aims to address this gap by developing a sophisticated competing risk model specifically designed to predict specific mortality in DLBCL patients.

METHODS

We extracted DLBCL patients' data from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. To identify relevant variables, we conducted a two-step screening process using univariate and multivariate Fine and Gray regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed based on the results. The model's consistency index (C-index) was calculated to assess its performance. Additionally, calibration curves and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to validate the model's effectiveness.

RESULTS

This study enrolled a total of 24,402 patients. The feature selection analysis identified 13 variables that were statistically significant and therefore included in the model. The model validation results demonstrated that the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year DLBCL-specific mortality was 0.748, 0.718, and 0.698, respectively, in the training cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.747, 0.721, and 0.697. The calibration curves indicated good consistency between the training and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The most significant predictor of DLBCL-specific mortality is the age of the patient, followed by the Ann Arbor stage and the administration of chemotherapy. This predictive model has the potential to facilitate the identification of high-risk DLBCL patients by clinicians, ultimately leading to improved prognosis.

Clinical implications of circulating tumor DNA in predicting the outcome of diffuse large B cell lymphoma patients receiving first-line therapy

BACKGROUND

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been proven to be a promising tumor-specific biomarker in solid tumors, but its clinical utility in risk stratification and early prediction of relapse for diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has not been well explored.

METHODS

Here, using a lymphoma-specific sequencing panel, we assessed the prognostic and predictive utilities of ctDNA measurements before, during, and after first-line therapy in 73 Chinese DLBCL patients.

RESULTS

The pretreatment ctDNA level serving as an independent prognostic factor for both progression-free survival (PFS, adjusted HR 2.47; p = 0.004) and overall survival (OS, adjusted HR 2.49; p = 0.011) was confirmed in our cohort. Furthermore, the patients classified as molecular responders who presented a larger decrease in ctDNA levels after the initial two treatment cycles had more favorable PFS (unreached vs. 6.25 months; HR 5.348; p = 0.0015) and OS (unreached vs. 25.87; HR 4.0; p = 0.028) than non-responders. In addition, interim ctDNA clearance may be an alternative noninvasive method of positron emission tomography and computed tomography (PET-CT) for predicting better PFS (HR 3.65; p = 0.0033) and OS (HR 3.536; p = 0.016). We also demonstrated that posttreatment ctDNA was a sensitive indicator for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD) in patients with a high risk of recurrence (HR 6.471; p = 0.014), who were otherwise claimed to achieve radiographic CR (complete remission).

CONCLUSIONS

CtDNA is a promising noninvasive tool for prognosis prediction, response assessment, and early relapse prediction of first-line treatment in DLBCL patients.

Risk Stratification for Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma by Integrating Interim Evaluation and International Prognostic Index: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

The baseline International Prognostic Index (IPI) is not sufficient for the initial risk stratification of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with R‐CHOP (rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone). The aims of this study were to evaluate the prognostic relevance of early risk stratification in DLBCL and develop a new stratification system that combines an interim evaluation and IPI. This multicenter retrospective study enrolled 314 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients with baseline and interim evaluations. All patients were treated with R-CHOP or R-CHOP-like regimens as the first-line therapy. Survival differences were evaluated for different risk stratification systems including the IPI, interim evaluation, and the combined system. When stratified by IPI, the high-intermediate and high-risk groups presented overlapping survival curves with no significant differences, and the high-risk group still had >50% of 3-year overall survival (OS). The interim evaluation can also stratify patients into three groups, as 3-year OS and progression-free survival (PFS) rates in patients with stable disease (SD) and progressive disease (PD) were not significantly different. The SD and PD patients had significantly lower 3-year OS and PFS rates than complete remission and partial response patients, but the percentage of these patients was only ~10%. The IPI and interim evaluation combined risk stratification system separated the patients into low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk groups. The 3-year OS rates were 96.4%, 86.7%, 46.4%, and 40%, while the 3-year PFS rates were 87.1%, 71.5%, 42.5%, and 7.2%. The OS comparison between the high-risk group and very high-risk group was marginally significant, and OS and PFS comparisons between any other two groups were significantly different. This combined risk stratification system could be a useful tool for the prognostic prediction of DLBCL patients.