Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in quantitative pest risk assessments; practical rules for risk assessors

Potential range shift of a long-distance migratory rice pest, Nilaparvata lugens, under climate change

The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.

Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for food allergen risk assessment: risk outcome and uncertainty comparisons

Peer-reviewed probabilistic methods already predict the probability of an allergic reaction resulting from an accidental exposure to food allergens, however, the methods calculate it in different ways. The available methods utilize the same three major input parameters in the risk model: the risk is estimated from the amount of food consumed, the concentration of allergen in the contaminated product and the distribution of thresholds among allergic persons. However, consensus is lacking about the optimal method to estimate the risk of allergic reaction and the associated uncertainty. This study aims to compare estimation of the risk of allergic reaction and associated uncertainty using different methods and suggest improvements. Four cases were developed based on the previous publications and the risk estimations were compared. The risk estimation was found to agree within 0.5% with the different simulation cases. Finally, an uncertainty analysis method is also presented in order to evaluate the uncertainty propagation from the input parameters to the risk.