Site-specific temporal and spatial validation of a generic plant pest forecast system with observations of Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly)

The Fallacy of Year-Round Breeding in Polyphagous Tropical Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae): Evidence for a Seasonal Reproductive Arrestment in Bactrocera Species

The genus Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) is endemic to the monsoonal rainforests of South-east Asia and the western Pacific where the larvae breed in ripe, fleshy fruits. While most Bactrocera remain rainforest restricted, species such as Bactrocera dorsalis, Bactrocera zonata and Bactrocera tryoni are internationally significant pests of horticulture, being both highly invasive and highly polyphagous. Almost universally in the literature it is assumed that Bactrocera breed continuously if temperature and hosts are not limiting. However, despite that, these flies show distinct seasonality. If discussed, seasonality is generally attributed to the fruiting of a particular breeding host (almost invariably mango or guava), but the question appears not to have been asked why flies do not breed at other times of the year despite other hosts being available. Focusing initially on B. tryoni, for which more literature is available, we demonstrate that the seasonality exhibited by that species is closely correlated with the seasons of its endemic rainforest environment as recognised by traditional Aboriginal owners. Evidence suggests the presence of a seasonal reproductive arrest which helps the fly survive the first two-thirds of the dry season, when ripe fruits are scarce, followed by a rapid increase in breeding at the end of the dry season as humidity and the availability of ripe fruit increases. This seasonal phenology continues to be expressed in human-modified landscapes and, while suppressed, it also partially expresses in long-term cultures. We subsequently demonstrate that B. dorsalis, across both its endemic and invasive ranges, shows a very similar seasonality although reversed in the northern hemisphere. While high variability in the timing of B. dorsalis population peaks is exhibited across sites, a four-month period when flies are rare in traps (Dec-Mar) is highly consistent, as is the fact that nearly all sites only have one, generally very sharp, population peak per year. While literature to support or deny a reproductive arrest in B. dorsalis is not available, available data is clear that continuous breeding does not occur in this species and that there are seasonal differences in reproductive investment. Throughout the paper we reinforce the point that our argument for a complex reproductive physiology in Bactrocera is based on inductive reasoning and requires specific, hypothesis-testing experiments to confirm or deny, but we do believe there is ample evidence to prioritise such research. If it is found that species in the genus undergo a true reproductive diapause then there are very significant implications for within-field management, market access, and biosecurity risk planning which are discussed. Arguably the most important of these is that insects in diapause have greater stress resistance and cold tolerance, which could explain how tropical Bactrocera species have managed to successfully invade cool temperate regions.

'Candidatus Phytoplasma asteris' subgroups display distinct disease progression dynamics during the carrot growing season

Aster Yellows phytoplasma (AYp; ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma asteris’) is an obligate bacterial pathogen that is the causative agent of multiple diseases in herbaceous plants. While this phytoplasma has been examined in depth for its disease characteristics, knowledge about the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen spread is lacking. The phytoplasma is found in plant’s phloem and is vectored by leafhoppers (Cicadellidae: Hemiptera), including the aster leafhopper, Macrosteles quadrilineatus Forbes. The aster leafhopper is a migratory insect pest that overwinters in the southern United States, and historical data suggest these insects migrate from southern overwintering locations to northern latitudes annually, transmitting and driving phytoplasma infection rates as they migrate. A more in-depth understanding of the spatial, temporal and genetic determinants of Aster Yellows disease progress will lead to better integrated pest management strategies for Aster Yellows disease control. Carrot, Daucus carota L., plots were established at two planting densities in central Wisconsin and monitored during the 2018 growing season for Aster Yellows disease progression. Symptomatic carrots were sampled and assayed for the presence of the Aster Yellows phytoplasma. Aster Yellows disease progression was determined to be significantly associated with calendar date, crop density, location within the field, and phytoplasma subgroup.

Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems

The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Yield loss data collected in various current environments may no longer represent a adequate reference to develop tactical, decision-oriented, models for plant diseases and pests and their impacts, because of the ongoing changes in climate patterns. Process-based agricultural simulation modelling, on the other hand, appears to represent a viable methodology to estimate the impacts of these potential effects. A new generation of tools based on state-of-the-art knowledge and technologies is needed to allow systems analysis including key processes and their dynamics over appropriate suitable range of environmental variables. This paper offers a brief overview of the current state of development in coupling pest and disease models to crop models, and discusses technical and scientific challenges. We propose a five-stage roadmap to improve the simulation of the impacts caused by plant diseases and pests; i) improve the quality and availability of data for model inputs; ii) improve the quality and availability of data for model evaluation; iii) improve the integration with crop models; iv) improve the processes for model evaluation; and v) develop a community of plant pest and disease modelers.