Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore

Potential adaptive habitats for the narrowly distributed and rare bamboo species Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue & T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb. under future climate change in China

The global climate change has resulted in substantial modifications to the distribution patterns of narrowly distributed species across different time periods, leading to an imminent threat to the survival of some vulnerable species. Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue & T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb., a bamboo species endemic to the transition zone from the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Sichuan Basin with high economic and ecological value, exhibits a limited range and rarity. Utilizing eight environmental variables and 56 occurrence records, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution range of C. tumidissinoda under current and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), elevation and isothermality (Bio3) were the crucial factors determining the species' distribution, accounting for 31.24%, 28.27% and 17.24% of data variability, respectively. The distribution centroid of C. tumidissinoda is anticipated to shift towards higher latitudes in response to future climate change, and the projected habitat suitability is expected to expand under ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios while remaining unchanged or contracting under the ssp126 scenario. Despite these expansions, the suitable habitats remain limited, with the largest being approximately 2.08 × 104 km2, indicating a significant threat to its survival. Our study provides insights into the adaptive responses of C. tumidissinoda to climate change, enriching scientific knowledge for developing effective conservation measurements as well as sustainable utilization.

Seasonal differences in the timing of flight between the invasive winter moth and native Bruce spanworm promotes reproductive isolation

The European winter moth, Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was accidentally introduced to North America on at least 4 separate occasions, where it has been hybridizing with the native Bruce spanworm, O. bruceata Hulst, at rates up to 10% per year. Both species are known to respond to the same sex pheromones and to produce viable offspring, but whether they differ in the seasonal timing of their mating flights is unknown. Therefore, we collected adult male moths weekly along 2 transects in the northeastern United States and genotyped individuals using polymorphic microsatellite markers as males of these 2 species cannot be differentiated morphologically. Along each transect, we then estimated the cumulative proportions (i.e., the number of individuals out of the total collected) of each species on each calendar day. Our results indicate that there are significant differences between the species regarding their seasonal timing of flight, and these allochronic differences likely are acting to promote reproductive isolation between these 2 species. Lastly, our results suggest that the later flight observed by winter moth compared to Bruce spanworm may be limiting its inland spread in the northeastern United States because of increased exposure to extreme winter events.

Of clockwork and catastrophes: advances in spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Lepidoptera

We applied a systematic global literature survey from the last 2.5 years on spatiotemporal population dynamics - broadly defined - of Lepidopteran forest pests. Articles were summarized according to domain-specific (planetary ecology - remote sensing, evolutionary ecology - genetics and genomics, and theoretical ecology - modeling) contributions to contemporary investigation of the above theme. 'Model systems' dominating our literature survey were native Choristoneura fumiferana and invasive Lymantria dispar. These systems represent opposing ends of a more general equilibrium-disequilibrium gradient, with implications for less-studied taxa. The dynamics of Lepidopteran systems defy simple modeling approaches. Technologies and insights emerging from 'slower' science domains are informing more complex theory, including predictions of spread, impacts, or both posed by more recent invasions and the disrupting effects of climate change.

The Reliability of Genitalia Morphology to Monitor the Spread of the Invasive Winter Moth (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in Eastern North America

Winter moth, Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), causes widespread defoliation in both its native and introduced distributions. Invasive populations of winter moth are currently established in the United States and Canada, and pheromone-baited traps have been widely used to track its spread. Unfortunately, a native species, the Bruce spanworm, O. bruceata (Hulst), and O. bruceata × brumata hybrids respond to the same pheromone, complicating efforts to detect novel winter moth populations. Previously, differences in measurements of a part of the male genitalia called the uncus have been utilized to differentiate the species; however, the accuracy of these measurements has not been quantified using independent data. To establish morphological cutoffs and estimate the accuracy of uncus-based identifications, we compared morphological measurements and molecular identifications based on microsatellite genotyping. We find that there are significant differences in some uncus measurements, and that in general, uncus measurements have low type I error rates (i.e., the probability of having false positives for the presence of winter moth). However, uncus measurements had high type II error rates (i.e., the probability of having false negatives for the presence of winter moth). Our results show that uncus measurements can be useful for performing preliminary identifications to monitor the spread of winter moth, though for accurate monitoring, molecular methods are still required. As such, efforts to study the spread of winter moth into interior portions of North America should utilize a combination of pheromone trapping and uncus measurements, while maintaining vouchers for molecular identification.