Predictors for the need for endoscopic therapy in patients with presumed acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Diagnosis Value of the Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Creatinine Ratio in Determining the Need for Intervention of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

INTRODUCTION

The blood urea nitrogen (BUN)-to-creatinine (Cr) ratio (BUN/Cr ratio) may be used to evaluate the need for intervention of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study aimed to explore the predictive value of the BUN/Cr ratio in the need for intervention of AUGIB.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study included patients with AUGIB in the hospital's emergency department between August 2019 and May 2023. The patients were grouped according to whether they underwent an intervention for AUGIB. Patients treated between August 2019 and May 2022 were selected as the training set and the others as the validation set.

RESULTS

A total of 466 patients (328 males, 138 females) with AUGIB were enrolled in the intervention group (n = 167) and the no-intervention group (n = 299). In the training set, multivariable logistic regression showed that the BUN/Cr ratio (odds ratio [OR]: 1.013, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.003-1.023, p = 0.009), hemoglobin (OR: 0.989, 95% CI: 0.981-0.997, p = 0.010), and a previous history of esophageal variceal bleeding (OR: 6.898, 95% CI: 3.989-11.929, p < 0.001) were independently associated with intervention for AUGIB. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of BUN/Cr ratio and the prediction model based on logistic regression to predict the need for intervention of AUGIB were 0.604 (95% CI: 0.544-0.664) and 0.759 (95% CI: 0.706-0.812) in the training set and 0.634 (95% CI: 0.529, 0.740) and 0.708 (95% CI: 0.609, 0.806) in the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The BUN/Cr ratio was associated with the need for AUGIB intervention. Combining it with other parameters might improve its diagnostic value to predict the need for intervention of AUGIB.

Novel Prediction Score for Arterial-Esophageal Fistula in Patients with Esophageal Cancer Bleeding: A Multicenter Study

PURPOSE

To develop and internally validate a novel prediction score to predict the occurrence of arterial-esophageal fistula (AEF) in esophageal cancer bleeding.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with esophageal cancer bleeding in the emergency department. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of AEF. The patients were randomly divided into a derivation group and a validation group. In the derivation stage, a predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, internal validation of the model was conducted in the validation cohort during the validation stage to assess its discrimination ability.

RESULTS

A total of 257 patients were enrolled in this study. All participants were randomized to a derivation cohort (n = 155) and a validation cohort (n = 102). AEF occurred in 22 patients (14.2%) in the derivation group and 14 patients (13.7%) in the validation group. A predictive model (HEARTS-Score) comprising five variables (hematemesis, active bleeding, serum creatinine level >1.2 mg/dL, prothrombin time >13 s, and previous stent implantation) was established. The HEARTS-Score demonstrated a high discriminative ability in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with c-statistics of 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.92), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

By employing this novel prediction score, clinicians can make more objective risk assessments, optimizing diagnostic strategies and tailoring treatment approaches.

Performance of Six Clinical Physiological Scoring Systems in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Patients with Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Emergency Department

Background and Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the performance of six clinical physiological-based scores, including the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, shock index (SI), age shock index (age SI), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), in predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly and very elderly patients in the emergency department (ED) with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). Materials and Methods: Patients older than 65 years who visited the ED with a clinical diagnosis of AUGIB were enrolled prospectively from July 2016 to July 2021. The six scores were calculated and compared with in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 336 patients were recruited, of whom 40 died. There is a significant difference between the patients in the mortality group and survival group in terms of the six scoring systems. MEWS had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.82). A subgroup analysis was performed for a total of 180 very elderly patients (i.e., older than 75 years), of whom 27 died. MEWS also had the best predictive performance in this subgroup (AUC, 0.82). Conclusions: This simple, rapid, and obtainable-by-the-bed parameter could assist emergency physicians in risk stratification and decision making for this vulnerable group.

A Novel Prediction Tool for Endoscopic Intervention in Patients with Acute Upper Gastro-Intestinal Bleeding

(1) Background: Predicting which patients with upper gastro-intestinal bleeding (UGIB) will receive intervention during urgent endoscopy can allow for better triaging and resource utilization but remains sub-optimal. Using machine learning modelling we aimed to devise an improved endoscopic intervention predicting tool. (2) Methods: A retrospective cohort study of adult patients diagnosed with UGIB between 2012−2018 who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) during hospitalization. We assessed the correlation between various parameters with endoscopic intervention and examined the prediction performance of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score for endoscopic intervention. We also trained and tested a new machine learning-based model for the prediction of endoscopic intervention. (3) Results: A total of 883 patients were included. Risk factors for endoscopic intervention included cirrhosis (9.0% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.01), syncope at presentation (19.3% vs. 5.4%, p < 0.01), early EGD (6.8 h vs. 17.0 h, p < 0.01), pre-endoscopic administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) (43.4% vs. 31.0%, p < 0.01) and erythromycin (17.2% vs. 5.6%, p < 0.01). Higher GBS (11 vs. 9, p < 0.01) and pre-endoscopy Rockall score (4.7 vs. 4.1, p < 0.01) were significantly associated with endoscopic intervention; however, the predictive performance of the scores was low (AUC of 0.54, and 0.56, respectively). A combined machine learning-developed model demonstrated improved predictive ability (AUC 0.68) using parameters not included in standard GBS. (4) Conclusions: The GBS and pre-endoscopic Rockall score performed poorly in endoscopic intervention prediction. An improved predictive tool has been proposed here. Further studies are needed to examine if predicting this important triaging decision can be further optimized.

Selected nasogastric lavage in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification before endoscopy is crucial for proper management of patients suspected as having upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). There is no consensus regarding the role of nasogastric lavage for risk stratification. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of nasogastric lavage to identify patients with UGIB requiring endoscopic examination.

METHODS

From January 2017 to December 2018, patients who visited the emergency department with a clinical suspicion of UGIB and who underwent nasogastric lavage before endoscopy were eligible. Patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding were excluded. The added predictive ability of nasogastric lavage to the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) was estimated using category-free net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement.

RESULTS

Data for 487 patients with nonvariceal UGIB were analyzed. The nasogastric aspirate was bloody in 67 patients (13.8 %), coffee-ground in 227 patients (46.6 %), and clear in 193 patients (39.6 %). The gross appearance of the nasogastric aspirate was associated with the presence of UGIB. Model comparisons showed that addition of nasogastric lavage findings to the GBS improved the performance of the model to predict the presence of UGIB. Subgroup analysis showed that nasogastric lavage improved the performance of the prediction model in patients with the GBS ≤ 11, whereas no additive value was found when the GBS was greater than 11.

CONCLUSIONS

Nasogastric lavage is useful for predicting the presence of UGIB in a subgroup of patients, while its clinical utility is limited in high-risk patients with a GBS of 12 or more.

Predictors of endoscopic intervention in upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients hospitalized for another illness: a multi-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

To characterize variables that may predict the need for endoscopic intervention in inpatients admitted for several causes who during the hospitalization developed acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of inpatients who underwent upper gastro-intestinal endoscopy for acute NVUGIB while hospitalized for other causes from 1 January 2016 to 1 December 2017, was performed. In the primary outcome analysis, patients (N.=14) who underwent endoscopic intervention (group A) were compared to those (N.=87) who did not need for endoscopic intervention (group B). Secondary outcome analysis included patients who had significant endoscopic findings compared to those who did not have them.

RESULTS

Multivariate regression analysis showed that in the primary outcome analysis, two parameters were significant: the number of packed red blood cells (PRBC) units transfused (odds ratio [OR]: 1.5, P=0.01) and Rockall Score (RS) (OR: 1.4, P=0.06) with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.7844. In the secondary outcome analysis, only the use of proton pump inhibitor drugs at admission was associated with protective effect for the development of significant endoscopic findings (odds ratio [OR]: 0.42, P=0.05) with ROC curve of 0.7342.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized patients, in case of de novo NVUGIB, the number of PRBC units transfused and RS are predictive of significant endoscopic findings.