Meandering Main Pancreatic Duct in Association with Choledochal Cysts and Acute Pancreatitis in Pediatrics

Using machine learning models to predict acute pancreatitis in children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction

PURPOSE

To develop a model to identify risk factors and predictors of acute pancreatitis in children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction (PBM).

METHODS

We screened consecutive PBM patients treated at two centers between January, 2015 and July, 2021. For machine learning, the cohort was divided randomly at a 6:4 ratio to a training dataset and a validation dataset. Three parallel models were developed using logistic regression (LR), a support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), respectively. Model performance was judged primarily based on the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 99 patients were included in the analysis, 17 of whom suffered acute pancreatitis and 82 did not. The XGBoost (AUC = 0.814) and SVM (AUC = 0.813) models produced similar performance in the validation dataset; both outperformed the LR model (AUC = 0.805). Based on the SHapley Additive exPlanation values, the most important variable in both the XGBoost and SVM models were age, protein plugs, and white blood cell count.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models, especially XGBoost and SVM, could be used to predict acute pancreatitis in children with PBM. The most important contributing factor to the models were age, protein plugs, and white blood cell count.

Hereditary pancreatitis: An updated review in pediatrics

Hereditary Pancreatitis (HP) has emerged as a significant cause of acute, acute recurrent and chronic pancreatitis in the pediatric population. Given that it presents similarly to other causes of pancreatitis, a positive family history and/or isolation of a gene mutation are vital in its designation. Inheritance patterns remain complex, but mutations involving the PRSS1, SPINK1, CFTR and CTRC genes are commonly implicated. Since being first described in 1952, dozens of genetic alterations that modify the action of pancreatic enzymes have been identified. Among children, these variants have been isolated in more than 50% of patients with chronic pancreatitis. Recent research has noted that such mutations in PRSS1, SPINK1 and CFTR genes are also associated with a faster progression from acute pancreatitis to chronic pancreatitis. Patients with HP are at increased risk of developing diabetes mellitus, exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Management follows a multi-disciplinary approach with avoidance of triggers, surveillance of associated conditions, treatment of pancreatic insufficiency and use of endoscopic and surgical interventions for complications. With significant sequela, morbidity and a progressive nature, a thorough understanding of the etiology, pathophysiologic mechanisms, diagnostic evaluation, current management strategies and future research considerations for this evolving disease entity in pediatrics is warranted.