Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study

Assessing vaccine effectiveness for varicella in Wuxi, China: a time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

The varicella vaccine is not included in the national childhood immunization schedules in China. Varicella epidemics and outbreaks are frequently reported, and the evidence for the effectiveness of the varicella vaccine remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate varicella vaccine effectiveness in Wuxi, China.

METHODS

Varicella surveillance data were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and vaccination data were obtained from the Vaccination Integrated Service Management Information System of Jiangsu Province, China. Time-series analysis approaches were used to estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 16,093 varicella cases among children aged 1-6 years between January 2016 and December 2020 were analysed. A total of 217,297 children completed a two-dose varicella vaccination series. Compared with districts with lower vaccination rates, districts in Wuxi with higher varicella vaccination rates had a lower proportion of cases (p < 0.001). In the time-series approach, 0.8% fewer varicella cases were associated with a 1% increase in the two-dose varicella vaccination rate (p < 0.001), and similar effects were found in both the male and female populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-dose varicella vaccination was recommended as an effective health intervention to prevent varicella in Wuxi, China. Varicella vaccination is urgently needed in routine childhood immunisation programs.

Seasonal transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: The role of temperature and school holidays

In Japan, major and minor bimodal seasonal patterns of varicella have been observed. To investigate the underlying mechanisms of seasonality, we evaluated the effects of the school term and temperature on the incidence of varicella in Japan. We analyzed epidemiological, demographic and climate datasets of seven prefectures in Japan. We fitted a generalized linear model to the number of varicella notifications from 2000 to 2009 and quantified the transmission rates as well as the force of infection, by prefecture. To evaluate the effect of annual variation in temperature on the rate of transmission, we assumed a threshold temperature value. In northern Japan, which has large annual temperature variations, a bimodal pattern in the epidemic curve was observed, reflecting the large deviation in average weekly temperature from the threshold value. This bimodal pattern was diminished with southward prefectures, gradually shifting to a unimodal pattern in the epidemic curve, with little temperature deviation from the threshold. The transmission rate and force of infection, considering the school term and temperature deviation from the threshold, exhibited similar seasonal patterns, with a bimodal pattern in the north and a unimodal pattern in the south. Our findings suggest the existence of preferable temperatures for varicella transmission and an interactive effect of the school term and temperature. Investigating the potential impact of temperature elevation that could reshape the epidemic pattern of varicella to become unimodal, even in the northern part of Japan, is required.

Seroprevalence of Varicella-Zoster Virus and Measles among Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Medical Center in Korea

Measles and varicella still occur in the general population despite the widespread vaccination against them, and healthcare workers (HCWs) are still at risk of exposure to these diseases. Here, we evaluated the seroprevalence of measles and varicella-zoster virus (VZV) in HCWs and the trend of seroprevalence according to age, birth year, and occupational group. The serostatuses of measles and VZV of HCWs during new employee medical examinations between October 2015 and October 2021 were included. Thereafter, the trends of seroprevalence according to age, birth year, and occupational groups were evaluated. Overall, 2070 and 1827 HCWs were evaluated for VZV and measles serostatus, respectively. The seroprevalences of VZV and measles were 91% (1884/2070) and 70% (1284/1827), respectively. Younger HCWs had a significantly lower seroprevalence of measles (p = 0.02, age) and VZV (p = 0.003, birth year and p < 0.001, age). The seroprevalence of measles and VZV was significantly higher among doctors and nursing assistants than among nurses and other HCWs (p < 0.001 in both). In conclusion, the seroprevalence of measles and VZV significantly decreased in younger HCWs. Additionally, monitoring the serostatus of measles and VZV and the immunization of susceptible HCWs are required to prepare and control infectious diseases in healthcare facilities.