Modeling the epidemic trend of middle eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus with optimal control

Analysis of age wise fractional order problems for the Covid-19 under non-singular kernel of Mittag-Leffler law

The developed article considers SIR problems for the recent COVID-19 pandemic, in which each component is divided into two subgroups: young and adults. These subgroups are distributed among two classes in each compartment, and the effect of COVID-19 is observed in each class. The fractional problem is investigated using the non-singular operator of Atangana Baleanu in the Caputo sense (ABC). The existence and uniqueness of the solution are calculated using the fundamental theorems of fixed point theory. The stability development is also determined using the Ulam-Hyers stability technique. The approximate solution is evaluated using the fractional Adams-Bashforth technique, providing a wide range of choices for selecting fractional order parameters. The simulation is plotted against available data to verify the obtained scheme. Different fractional-order approximations are compared to integer-order curves of various orders. Therefore, this analysis represents the recent COVID-19 pandemic, differentiated by age at different fractional orders. The analysis reveals the impact of COVID-19 on young and adult populations. Adults, who typically have weaker immune systems, are more susceptible to infection compared to young people. Similarly, recovery from infection is higher among young infected individuals compared to infected cases in adults.

Analysis and comparative study of a deterministic mathematical model of SARS-COV-2 with fractal-fractional operators: a case study

In this paper, we investigate a fractal-fractional-order mathematical model with the influence of hospitalized patients and the impact of vaccination with fractal-fractional operators. The respective derivatives are considered in the Caputo, Caputo Fabrizio, and Atangana-Baleanu senses of fractional order α and fractal dimension τ . For the proposed problem, some results regarding basic reproduction number and stability are given. Using the next-generation matrix approach, we have investigated the global and local stability of several types of equilibrium points. We provide a detailed analysis of the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Moreover, we fit the model with the real data of Pakistan from June 01, 2020, till March 24, 2021. Then, we use the fractal-fractional derivative to find a numerical solution for the model. MATLAB software is used for numerical illustration. Graphical presentations corresponding to different parameteric values are given as well.

Non-smooth dynamics of a SIR model with nonlinear state-dependent impulsive control

The classic SIR model is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of controlling infectious diseases. Moreover, when adopting strategies such as isolation and vaccination based on changes in the size of susceptible populations and other states, it is necessary to develop a non-smooth SIR infectious disease model. To do this, we first add a non-linear term to the classical SIR model to describe the impact of limited medical resources or treatment capacity on infectious disease transmission, and then involve the state-dependent impulsive feedback control, which is determined by the convex combinations of the size of the susceptible population and its growth rates, into the model. Further, the analytical methods have been developed to address the existence of non-trivial periodic solutions, the existence and stability of a disease-free periodic solution (DFPS) and its bifurcation. Based on the properties of the established Poincaré map, we conclude that DFPS exists, which is stable under certain conditions. In particular, we show that the non-trivial order-1 periodic solutions may exist and a non-trivial order-$ k $ ($ k\geq 1 $) periodic solution in some special cases may not exist. Moreover, the transcritical bifurcations around the DFPS with respect to the parameters $ p $ and $ AT $ have been investigated by employing the bifurcation theorems of discrete maps.