Insights into the Genetic Population Structure of Black-Backed Jackal and Caracal in South Africa

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the City of Cape Town, South Africa, and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH = 0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10 Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline, though with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability.

Culling recolonizing mesopredators increases livestock losses: Evidence from the South African Karoo

Populations of adaptable mesopredators are expanding globally where passive rewilding and natural recolonization are taking place, increasing the risk of conflict with remaining livestock farmers. We analysed data from two social surveys of farmers in the Karoo, South Africa, where black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas) and caracals (Caracal caracal) have re-emerged as a threat to sheep farms in the context of falling agricultural employment and the expansion of natural areas. We show that irrespective of measurement approach, lethal control of mesopredators in this fragmented socio-economic landscape was associated with increased livestock losses the following year. Terrain ruggedness was positively, and number of farmworkers negatively, associated with livestock losses. Our study provides further evidence that lethal control of mesopredators in this context is probably counter-productive and supports calls to develop, share and financially support a range of non-lethal methods to protect livestock, especially where natural recolonization of mesopredators is occurring. A graphical abstract can be found in Electronic supplementary material.