Incidence of Scarlet Fever in Children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002-2016: An Age-period-cohort Analysis

Epidemiological analysis of Group A streptococcus infection diseases among children in Beijing, China under COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Group A streptococcus is human-restricted gram-positive pathogen, responsible for various clinical presentations from mild epidermis infections to life threatened invasive diseases. Under COVID-19 pandemic,. the characteristics of the epidemic strains of GAS could be different.

PURPOSE

To investigate epidemiological and molecular features of isolates from GAS infections among children in Beijing, China between January 2020 and December 2021. Antimicrobial susceptibility profiling was performed based on Cinical Laboratory Sandards Institute. Distribution of macrolide-resistance genes, emm types, and superantigens was examined by polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

114 GAS isolates were collected which were frequent resistance against erythromycin (94.74%), followed by clindamycin (92.98%), tetracycline (87.72%). Emm12 (46.49%), emm1 (25.44%) were dominant emm types. Distribution of ermB, ermA, and mefA gene was 93.85%, 2.63%, and 14.04%, respectively. Frequent superantigenes identified were smeZ (97.39%), speG (95.65%), and speC (92.17%). Emm1 strains possessed smeZ, ssa, and speC, while emm12 possessed smeZ, ssa, speG, and speC. Erythromycin resistance was predominantly mediated by ermB. Scarlet fever strains harbored smeZ (98.81%), speC (94.05%). Impetigo strains harbored smeZ (88.98%), ssa (88.89%), and speC (88.89%). Psoriasis strains harbored smeZ (100%).

CONCLUSIONS

Under COVID-19 pandemic, our collections of GAS infection cutaneous diseases decreased dramatically. Epidemiological analysis of GAS infections among children during COVID-19 pandemic was not significantly different from our previous study. There was a correlation among emm, superantigen gene and disease manifestations. Long-term surveillance and investigation of emm types and superantigens of GAS prevalence are imperative.

Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R²) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)₁₂. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Recent increase in pertussis incidence in South Korea: An age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

Pertussis or whooping cough—one of the most contagious diseases—is caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Despite a high vaccination rate, Korea recently experienced a resurgence of pertussis. This study explores patterns and possible explanations for this resurgence through an age-period-cohort analysis.

METHODS

Using secondary data from the infectious disease portal of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Korea Statistical Information Service of Statistics Korea, this study analyzed the incidence of pertussis in Korea to determine which factors contributed to the recent increase using an age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Analysis of the age effect indicated that the age group most vulnerable to pertussis was 0-year to 2-year-olds. Analysis of the period effect showed a sharp increase in the incidence rate after 2016. Analysis of the cohort effect showed a significant decrease in incidence beginning with the 1955 birth cohort, with the risk increasing again with the 2000s birth cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous studies have suggested 3 main possible explanations for our results. First, the increased incidence rate can be attributed to contact rates. Second, the rate of immunity through natural exposure has decreased due to the low number of circulating pathogens, in turn affecting the trend of infection. Lastly, variations in pathogens may have also contributed to the increase in incidence. Given that the most significant increase in incidence was observed among infants younger than 1 year old, sufficient maternal immunity must be prioritized to provide passive immunity to newborns via the placenta.

Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Scarlet Fever in Zhejiang Province, China, 2004-2018

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the trends and epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province in 2004–2018, intending to provide a basis for targeted prevention and control of this disease. Method: We collated the epidemiological data for cases of scarlet fever from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP) in Zhejiang province between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. Descriptive statistical analysis was used to analyze epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever, whereas the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to determine the hotspot incidence of scarlet fever. Results: In 2004–2018, a total of 22,194 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Zhejiang Province, with no death reports. The annual average of scarlet fever incidence was 2.82/100,000 (range,1.12 to 6.34/100,000). The male incidence was higher than that among female (χ² = 999.834, p < 0.05), and a majority of the cases (86.42%) occurred in children aged 3–9 years. Each year, the incidence of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province appeared two seasonal peaks: the first peak occurred from March to June (the constituent ratio was 49.06%), the second peak was lower than the first one during November and the following January (the constituent ratio was 28.67%). The two peaks were almost in accordance with the school spring semester and autumn–winter semester, respectively. The incidence in the northern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the southern regions. High-value clusters were detected in the central and northern regions, while low-value clusters occurred in the southern regions via the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical analysis. Conclusions: The prevalence of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province showed a marked seasonality variation and mainly clustered in the central and northern regions in 2004–2018. Children under 15 years of age were most susceptible to scarlet fever. Kindergartens and primary schools should be the focus of prevention and control, and targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence.