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Abdel-Hamid T, Ankel F, Battle-Fisher M, Gibson B, Gonzalez-Parra G, Jalali M, Kaipainen K, Kalupahana N, Karanfil O, Marathe A, Martinson B, McKelvey K, Sarbadhikari SN, Pintauro S, Poucheret P, Pronk N, Qian Y, Sazonov E, Van Oorschot K, Venkitasubramanian A, Murphy P. Public and health professionals' misconceptions about the dynamics of body weight gain/loss. SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW 2014; 30:58-74. [PMID: 25620843 PMCID: PMC4300993 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Human body energy storage operates as a stock-and-flow system with inflow (food intake) and outflow (energy expenditure). In spite of the ubiquity of stock-and-flow structures, evidence suggests that human beings fail to understand stock accumulation and rates of change, a difficulty called the stock-flow failure. This study examines the influence of health care training and cultural background in overcoming stock-flow failure. A standardized protocol assessed lay people's and health care professionals' ability to apply stock-and-flow reasoning to infer the dynamics of weight gain/loss during the holiday season (621 subjects from seven countries). Our results indicate that both types of subjects exhibited systematic errors indicative of use of erroneous heuristics. Stock-flow failure was found across cultures and was not improved by professional health training. The problem of stock-flow failure as a transcultural global issue with education and policy implications is discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tarek Abdel-Hamid
- Department of Information Sciences, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, U.S.A
| | - Felix Ankel
- University of Minnesota Medical School Emergency Department, Saint Paul, United States
| | - Michele Battle-Fisher
- Wright State Boonshoft School of Medicine, Center for Global Health, Kettering, United States
| | - Bryan Gibson
- University of Utah, VA Salt Lake City Healthcare System, Salt Lake City, United States
| | | | - Mohammad Jalali
- Virginia Tech, Management Systems Engineering, Falls Church, United States
| | - Kirsikka Kaipainen
- VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, ICT for Health, Tampere, Finland
| | - Nishan Kalupahana
- University of Tennessee, UT Obesity Research Center and Department of Animal Science, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States
| | | | - Achla Marathe
- Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Blacksburg, United States
| | - Brian Martinson
- Health Partners Research Foundation, Minneapolis, United States
| | - Karma McKelvey
- Florida International University, Epidemiology, Miami, United States
| | | | - Stephen Pintauro
- University of Vermont, Nutrition and Food Sciences, Burlington, United States
| | - Patrick Poucheret
- Université Montpellier, Laboratoire de Pharmacologie et Physiopathologie Expérimentale, Montpellier, France
| | - Nicolaas Pronk
- Health Partners Research Foundation, Bloomington, United States
| | - Ying Qian
- Shanghai University, Information Management, Shanghai, China
| | - Edward Sazonov
- University of Alabama, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tuscaloosa, United States
| | - Kim Van Oorschot
- BI Norwegian Business School, Department of Leadership and Organizational, Behaviour, Nydalsveien 37 0442 Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Philip Murphy
- Monterey Institute of International Studies, International Policy Studies, Monterey United States
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