Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data

Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective

In this article, we analyse the relationship between union instability and cumulated fertility among ever-partnered women in several regions across Europe and the Americas with different patterns of demographic behaviour in terms of fertility levels, union instability and fertility across partnerships. We hypothesise that the relationship between union dissolution and fertility might be less negative in contexts where repartnering is more prevalent. The analysis is performed on a large dataset of 25 countries, combining information from the Harmonised Histories of the Generation and Gender Programme with our own harmonisation of survey data from three Latin American countries. This allows for the inclusion of countries with differing prevalence of union instability as measured by (a) the proportion of women who separated by age 40, and (b) the proportion who repartnered by age 40. We first examine the prevalence of separation and repartnering during reproductive ages across regions, and we estimate the proportion of cumulated fertility attributable to unions of different ranks using a decomposition method. We then analyse the links between union instability and the number of children born by age 40 among ever-partnered and ever-repartnered women, using Poisson regression. Despite observing a high degree of heterogeneity in the proportions of births occurring in the context of repartnering both within and between regions, we find a pattern where a greater prevalence of repartnering by age 40 is accompanied by higher cumulated fertility in second or subsequent unions. Our multivariate findings reveal a negative statistical relationship between separation and cumulated fertility that is partially offset by repartnering in some contexts, and that the time spent in a union during the reproductive lifespan is a key determinant of cumulated fertility, regardless of national context and independently from age at union formation and union rank.

Children and marital dissolution in China

Using data for women from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 Chinese Family Panel Studies, this study investigated several aspects of children’s effects on the risk of marital dissolution, including the number of children, their age and sex composition, and the timing of conception relative to marriage. Because these explanatory variables are potentially endogenous, marital dissolution was jointly modelled with the processes of marriage formation, marital childbearing and nonmarital childbearing, and the sequencing of events and unobserved correlation across processes accounted for. The results demonstrated that childlessness significantly elevates the risk of divorce whereas the first child has the strongest marriage stabilising effect. Reflecting the strong son preference in rural China, having boys was shown to markedly reduce the risk of parental divorce among rural women. Whether a child is conceived within or out of wedlock has no significant causal effect on marital dissolution insofar as it belongs to both parents. However, positive residual correlation between the processes of divorce and nonmarital childbearing suggests the potential selection of women with non-traditional family behaviours into marital dissolution.

Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter?

The interplay between remarriage and fertility is among the most poorly documented subjects in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite remarriage being one of the fundamental aspects of marriage dynamics in this region. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 countries in SSA to document the association between remarriage and fertility during the reproductive years and over the fertility transition. The findings show that in 29 countries, remarried women end up having fewer children than women in intact unions, despite attaining similar or higher levels of fertility at early reproductive ages. However, remarriage is found to have a positive effect on fertility in Sierra Leone. The effects of remarriage on fertility diminish as fertility declines, with smaller effects generally observed in countries that are relatively advanced in their fertility transition and larger effects found elsewhere. These findings shed light on the role that remarriage might play in country-level fertility declines.