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Kreyenfeld M, Konietzka D, Lambert P, Ramos VJ. Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION = REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2023; 39:5. [PMID: 36862236 PMCID: PMC9979123 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-023-09656-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 01/15/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
Building on a thick strand of the literature on the determinants of higher-order births, this study uses a gender and class perspective to analyse second birth progression rates in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1990 to 2020, individuals are classified based on their occupation into: upper service, lower service, skilled manual/higher-grade routine nonmanual, and semi-/unskilled manual/lower-grade routine nonmanual classes. Results highlight the "economic advantage" of men and women in service classes who experience strongly elevated second birth rates. Finally, we demonstrate that upward career mobility post-first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Philippe Lambert
- Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium
- Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2023. [DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.48.8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/18/2023] Open
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Gómez-Ortiz O, Sánchez-Sánchez C. Is the Predisposition to Have More Children Beneficial among Parents with Only One Child? Evidence from Spanish Parents. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19137685. [PMID: 35805351 PMCID: PMC9266142 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19137685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Revised: 06/17/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
The fertility deficit in many European countries is related to a low rate of second births. Understanding the factors associated with the predisposition of one-child parents to have more children could contribute to the search for solutions to this social problem. Although previous evidence highlights the role of employment and social factors, psychological factors have been poorly investigated. This study examines the relationship between different psychosocial factors (rumination, personality, life satisfaction, perfectionism, social support, parental stress, guilt linked to work–family conflict, age and child temperament) and parents’ predisposition to have more children. The sample consisted of 96 one-child Spanish parents whose child was in early childhood education (59.3% women; Mage = 37.41). The results show that one-child parents with the predisposition to have more children, compared to those without a predisposition to have more children, showed higher levels of life satisfaction, extroversion and adaptive perfectionism but lower levels of rumination and parental stress. The social implications of these findings and how they may affect parenting today are discussed.
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Abstract
AbstractGiven the many linkages between education and family behaviour, the expansion of higher education especially among women in recent decades may have important consequences for fertility in Europe. This is a crucial factor in both the New Home Economics (NHE) theory and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) that predict a negative association between fertility and education. However, more recently, the Gender Revolution (GR) approach has emphasised the role of gender egalitarianism both in society and within households as a boost for fertility. By adopting a comparative perspective on six European countries, this paper reports our research on the effect of education on the fertility choices in light of the foregoing three different theoretical explanations. Using data from the second wave of Generation and Gender surveys (GGS) for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, and Poland, and the ISTAT survey “Famiglie e Soggetti Sociali” for Italy, we estimated the propensity to have the first and the second child birth on women born between 1940 and 1979 by means of multiprocess hazard models.For the first childbirth, the influence of education on fertility behaviours not only remains important but also tends to increase among younger cohorts. This result matches the NHE and SDT explanation, suggesting a similar evolution towards an erosion of the family. Conversely, for the second childbirth we found marked differences among countries suggesting an East-West polarisation giving support to the GR approach. However, peculiarities for the Italian case linked to a tempo effect emphasize the need to go beyond the West-East dichotomy.
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Spéder Z, Murinkó L, Oláh LS. Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary. Population Studies 2019; 74:39-54. [PMID: 31829092 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1694165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
Following steep falls in birth rates in Central and Eastern European countries during the economic and institutional restructuring of the early 1990s, governments made substantial efforts to stop or at least reduce the fertility decline. In Hungary, parents with three or more children could benefit from specific new policy measures: the flat-rate child-rearing support paid from the youngest child's third to eighth birthdays (signalling recognition of stay-at-home motherhood) and a redesigned and upgraded tax relief system. However, the success of these policy measures, if any, is difficult to detect in aggregate statistics. Analysing data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey, we rely on event history methods to examine the policies' effects on third birth risks, especially among different socio-economic groups. The results indicate that while the child-rearing support increased third birth risks among the least educated, the generous tax relief had a similar effect for parents with tertiary education.
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Zang E. Women’s educational attainment and fertility among Generation X in the United States. Population Studies 2019; 73:335-351. [DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1658799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Gender differences and similarities in the educational gradient in fertility: The role of earnings potential and gender composition in study disciplines. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2018. [DOI: 10.4054/demres.2018.39.13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
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Nisén J, Martikainen P, Myrskylä M, Silventoinen K. Education, Other Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the Life Course, and Fertility Among Finnish Men. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2018; 34:337-366. [PMID: 30147207 PMCID: PMC6096873 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-017-9430-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2016] [Accepted: 05/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
The level of education and other adult socioeconomic characteristics of men are known to associate with their fertility, but early-life socioeconomic characteristics may also be related. We studied how men’s adult and early-life socioeconomic characteristics are associated with their eventual fertility and whether the differences therein by educational level are explained or mediated by other socioeconomic characteristics. The data on men born in 1940–1950 (N = 37,082) were derived from the 1950 Finnish census, which is linked to later registers. Standard and sibling fixed-effects Poisson and logistic regression models were used. Education and other characteristics were positively associated with the number of children, largely stemming from a higher likelihood of a first birth among the more socioeconomically advantaged men. The educational gradient in the number of children was not explained by early socioeconomic or other characteristics shared by brothers, but occupational position and income in adulthood mediated approximately half of the association. Parity-specific differences existed: education and many other socioeconomic characteristics predicted the likelihood of a first birth more strongly than that of a second birth, and the mediating role of occupational position and income was also strongest for first births. Relatively small differences were found in the likelihood of a third birth. In men, education is positively associated with eventual fertility after controlling for early socioeconomic and other characteristics shared by brothers. Selective entry into fatherhood based on economic provider potential may contribute considerably to educational differentials in the number of children among men.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Nisén
- Population Research Unit, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18 (Unioninkatu 35), 00014 Helsinki, Finland
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany
| | - Pekka Martikainen
- Population Research Unit, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18 (Unioninkatu 35), 00014 Helsinki, Finland
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Mikko Myrskylä
- Population Research Unit, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18 (Unioninkatu 35), 00014 Helsinki, Finland
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany
- Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics, London, UK
| | - Karri Silventoinen
- Population Research Unit, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18 (Unioninkatu 35), 00014 Helsinki, Finland
- School of Medicine, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
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Bremhorst V, Kreyenfeld M, Lambert P. Nonparametric double additive cure survival models: An application to the estimation of the non-linear effect of age at first parenthood on fertility progression. STAT MODEL 2018. [DOI: 10.1177/1471082x18784685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
This article introduces double additive models to describe the effect of continuous covariates in cure survival models, thereby relaxing the traditional linearity assumption in the two regression parts. This class of models extends the classical event history models when an unknown proportion of the population under study will never experience the event of interest. They are used on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to examine how age at first birth relates to the timing and quantum of fertility for given education levels of the respondents. It is shown that the conditional probability of having further children decreases with the mother's age at first birth. While the effect of age at first birth in the third birth's probability model is fairly linear, this is not the case for the second child with an accelerating decline detected for women that had their first kid beyond age 30.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincent Bremhorst
- Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | | | - Philippe Lambert
- Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Université de Liège, Faculté des sciences sociales, Méthodes quantitatives en sciences sociales, Liège, Belgium
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Spéder Z, Bartus T. Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2016; 33:55-85. [PMID: 30976227 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-016-9394-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2015] [Accepted: 08/17/2016] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
It is well known that participation in education is incompatible with the transition to motherhood. However, enrolment is overwhelmingly treated as a single status even though participation in education may be combined with employment-resulting in double-status positions, and the fertility implications of double-status positions are less clear-cut. Relying on normative and economic approaches, we develop original and competing hypotheses regarding the effect of double-status positions on the transition to motherhood. We also speculate on how the post-communist transition and institutional context might influence the hypothesised effects. The hypotheses are tested using event history data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey. We employ event history methods, which take into account the potential endogeneity of employment and enrolment decisions. We find robust evidence that first birth rates are higher among women in double-status positions than among women who are merely enrolled, but that difference is smaller in younger cohorts than in older ones. We also find some evidence that first birth rates are lower in double-status positions than among women who are employed but not enrolled. Our findings suggest that the conflict between participation in education and motherhood is mitigated in double-status positions, especially among members of the oldest cohort. Since double status is prevalent in modern societies, but has different meanings in different contexts according to educational system and welfare state, we argue for future research on this issue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zsolt Spéder
- Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Buday László utca 1-3, Budapest, 1024 Hungary
| | - Tamás Bartus
- 2Corvinus University Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093 Hungary
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Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2016. [DOI: 10.4054/demres.2016.35.18] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
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Perelli-Harris B. How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION = REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2014; 30:437-464. [PMID: 25395696 PMCID: PMC4221046 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-014-9320-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2013] [Accepted: 05/13/2014] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brienna Perelli-Harris
- Reader in Demography, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Bldg 58, Room, 2067, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK
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Andersson G, Kreyenfeld M, Mika T. Welfare state context, female labour-market attachment and childbearing in Germany and Denmark. JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH 2014. [DOI: 10.1007/s12546-014-9135-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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