The educational differential in fertility in transitional China: Temporal and regional variation

The Impact of Education on Fertility During the Chinese Reform Era (1980-2018): Changes Across Birth Cohorts and Interaction with Fertility Policies

We examined the influence of education on fertility decisions in contemporary China, drawing upon theoretical insights that emphasise the role of social institutions, gender relations, and life course dynamics in shaping family behaviour. This led us to propose a set of hypotheses that explain the differential effect of education on each parity. We used information on female cohorts born between 1960 and 1989, coming from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010-2018. We applied event history models with both independent and simultaneous equations models to account for selection and endogeneity effects. The results point to a substantial contribution of the increased educational attainment in the population in the fertility decline and current low levels of fertility, beyond the role of fertility policies. Consistent with our hypotheses, the results show that woman's educational attainment has a strong negative effect on the hazard of bearing a second or third child. Male partner's educational attainment also has a negative effect on the hazard of transition to a second or third birth, yet with a weaker intensity. We also found that the negative effect of education on second birth rates significantly declines across birth cohorts. The results show little educational differentials in the probability of bearing a first child, while the better educated postpone first births. Moreover, the effect of fertility policies, measured at the individual level, gradually increases with the level of education.

Educational differentials on the transition to first birth in South Korea

Drawing on two competing frameworks, the leader-follower model and the permanent-difference model, this study examines the educational gradient in the transition to first birth across birth cohorts in South Korea. The leader-follower model suggests that low fertility behaviour would spread from more educated women to their less educated counterparts, whereas the permanent-difference model posits that the gaps in fertility between education groups would remain distinct over time. Using nationally representative panel data of 7914 women (130,078 person-years) born between 1960 and 1984, results from discrete-time survival analysis show an initial convergence of gaps in fertility between education groups, but the gaps are now re-emerging and widening. Substantial gaps in fertility are found in younger birth cohorts born between 1975 and 1984. The convergence-divergence pattern observed over time highlights the importance of recognising how women's changing educational profile affects fertility in an ultra-low fertility setting.