Transmissibility of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, subtype H5N1 in domestic poultry: a spatio-temporal estimation at the global scale

The Variation of Duck RIG-I-Mediated Innate Immune Response Induced by Different Virulence Avian Influenza Viruses

In recent years, the emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus has been reported with features of widely spread, an expanding host range, and cross-species transmission, attracting wide attention. The domestic duck plays a major role in the epidemiological cycle of the HPAI H5N8 virus, but little is known concerning innate immune responses during influenza infection in duck species. In this study, we used two wild-bird-origin viruses, H5N8 and H4N6, to conduct duck infection experiments, and detect the load of the two viruses, and retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I) and interferon β (IFN-β) in the host's natural immune response. Through comparison, it is found that the expression levels of RIG-I and IFN-β are both fluctuating. The innate immunity starts rapidly within 6 h after infection and is inhibited by the virus to varying degrees. The expression of RIG-I and IFN-β decreased on 1-2 days post-infection (dpi). The HPAI H5N8 virus has a stronger inhibitory effect on RIG-I than the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H4N6 virus and is the strongest in the lungs. After infection with HPAI H5N8 virus, 2 dpi, viral RNA replicates in large amounts in the lungs. It has been proven that RIG-I and IFN-β play an important role in the innate immune response of ducks to HPAI H5N8 virus infection, especially in the lungs. The main battlefield of RIG-I and IFN-β after infection with the LPAI H4N6 virus is in the rectum. Both viruses have been effectively controlled after 7 dpi. These results will help to understand the transmission mechanisms of avian influenza virus in wild ducks and help effectively prevent and control avian influenza.

Enhanced virulence of clade 2.3.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 viruses in ferrets

Sporadic avian to human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses necessitates the analysis of currently circulating and evolving clades to assess their potential risk. Following the spread and sustained circulation of clade 2 viruses across multiple continents, numerous subclades and genotypes have been described. To better understand the pathogenesis associated with the continued diversification of clade 2A(H5N1) influenza viruses, we investigated the relative virulence of eleven human and poultry isolates collected from 2006 to 2013 by determining their ability to cause disease in the ferret model. Numerous clade 2 viruses, including a clade 2.2 avian isolate, a 2.2.2.1 human isolate, and two 2.2.1 human isolates, were found to be of low virulence in the ferret model, though lethality was detected following infection with one 2.2.1 human isolate. In contrast, three of six clade 2.3.2.1 avian isolates tested led to severe disease and death among infected ferrets. Clade 2.3.2.1b and 2.3.2.1c isolates, but not 2.3.2.1a isolates, were associated with ferret lethality. All A(H5N1) viruses replicated efficiently in the respiratory tract of ferrets regardless of their virulence and lethality. However, lethal isolates were characterized by systemic viral dissemination, including detection in the brain and enhanced histopathology in lung tissues. The finding of disparate virulence phenotypes between clade 2A(H5N1) viruses, notably differences between subclades of 2.3.2.1 viruses, suggests there are distinct molecular determinants present within the established subclades, the identification of which will assist in molecular-based surveillance and public health efforts against A(H5N1) viruses.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977

In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6 months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R₀ ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R₀ both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) in poultry in eastern India

In India, majority outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 have occurred in eastern states of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. This study aimed to identify disease clusters and risk factors of HPAI H5N1 in these states, for targeted surveillance and disease control. A spatial scan statistic identified two significant disease clusters in West Bengal and Assam, occurring during January and November-December 2008, respectively. Key risk factors were identified at sub-district level using bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees model. With both methods, HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in backyard poultry were associated with accessibility in terms of time taken to access a city with >50,000 persons, human population density and duck density (P<0.005). In addition, areas at lower elevation were also identified as high risk by BRT model. It is recommended that risk-based surveillance should be implemented in high duck density areas and all live-bird markets in high-throughput locations.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis

BACKGROUND

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate.

OBJECTIVES

We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general.

METHODS

We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance.

RESULTS

R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Quantitative transmission characteristics of different H5 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Muscovy ducks

EU annual serosurveillance programs show that domestic duck flocks have the highest seroprevalence of H5 antibodies, demonstrating the circulation of notifiable avian influenza virus (AIV) according to OIE, likely low pathogenic (LP). Therefore, transmission characteristics of LPAIV within these flocks can help to understand virus circulation and possible risk of propagation. This study aimed at estimating transmission parameters of four H5 LPAIV (three field strains from French poultry and decoy ducks, and one clonal reverse-genetics strain derived from one of the former), using a SIR model to analyze data from experimental infections in SPF Muscovy ducks. The design was set up to accommodate rearing on wood shavings with a low density of 1.6 ducks/m(2): 10 inoculated ducks were housed together with 15 contact-exposed ducks. Infection was monitored by RNA detection on oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs using real-time RT-PCR with a cutoff corresponding to 2-7 EID50. Depending on the strain, the basic reproduction number (R0) varied from 5.5 to 42.7, confirming LPAIV could easily be transmitted to susceptible Muscovy ducks. The lowest R0 estimate was obtained for a H5N3 field strain, due to lower values of transmission rate and duration of infectious period, whereas reverse-genetics derived H5N1 strain had the highest R0. Frequency and intensity of clinical signs were also variable between strains, but apparently not associated with longer infectious periods. Further comparisons of quantitative transmission parameters may help to identify relevant viral genetic markers for early detection of potentially more virulent strains during surveillance of LPAIV.