Prostate cancer upgrading or downgrading of biopsy Gleason scores at radical prostatectomy: prediction of "regression to the mean" using routine clinical features with correlating biochemical relapse rates

The role of PSMA PET/CT in predicting downgrading in patients with Gleason score 4+4 prostate cancer in prostate biopsy

BACKGROUND

To investigate the predictable parameters associated with downgrading in patients with a Gleason score (GS) 8 (4+4) in prostate biopsy after radical prostatectomy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 62 patients with a GS of 4+4 on prostate biopsy who underwent robotic radical prostatectomy between 2017 and 2022.

RESULTS

38 of 62 (61.2%) were downgraded. In multivariable logistic regression model, Ga-68 prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron-emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) SUV max was independent predictor of downgrading (OR 0.904; p = 0.011) and a Logistic Regression model was constructed using the following formula: Y = 1.465-0.95 (PSMA PET/CT SUV max). The model using this variable correctly predicted the downgrading in 72.6% of patients. The AUC for PSMA PET/CT SUV max was 0.709 the cut off being 8.8. A subgroup analysis was performed in 37 patients who had no other European Association of Urology (EAU) high risk features. 25 out of 37 (67.5%) were downgraded, and 21 of these 25 had organ confined disease. Low PSMA SUV max (<8.1) and percentage of GS 4+4 biopsy cores to cancer bearing cores (45.0%) were independently associated with downgrading to GS 7.

CONCLUSION

PSMA PET/CT can be used to predict downgrading in patients with GS 4+4 PCa. Patients with GS 4+4 disease, but no other EAU high risk features, low percentage of GS 4+4 biopsy cores to cancer bearing cores, and a low PSMA PET/CT SUV max are associated with a high likelihood of the cancer reclassification to intermediate risk group.

Targeted biopsy added to systematic biopsy improves cancer detection in prostate cancer screening

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)/ultrasound targeted biopsy has frequently been used together with a 12-core systematic biopsy for prostate cancer screening in the past few years. However, the efficacy of targeted biopsy compared to systematic biopsy, as well as its clinical-histologic correlation, has been assessed by a limited number of studies and is further investigated in this study.

DESIGN

We collected 960 cases with both targeted and systematic prostate biopsies from 04/2019 to 04/2022 (Table 1). We compared cancer detection rates between targeted and systematic prostate biopsies in different grade groups. Correlations with the size of prostate lesions, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) scale were also analyzed for each of these biopsy methods.

RESULTS

Among the 960 men who underwent targeted biopsy with systematic biopsy, prostatic adenocarcinoma was diagnosed in 652 (67.9%) cases. 489 (50.9%) cases were diagnosed by targeted biopsy and 576 (60.0%) cases were diagnosed by systematic biopsy. In the 384 cases diagnosed negative by systematic biopsy, targeted biopsy identified cancer in 76 (8%) cases. Systematic biopsy was able to detect 163 cancer cases that were missed by targeted biopsy. Systematic biopsy detected more grade group 1 cancers compared to targeted biopsy. However, for higher grade cancers, the differences between the cancer detection rates of targeted biopsy and systematic biopsy became negligible. Targeted biopsy upgraded the grade group categorized by systematic biopsy in several cases (3.8%, 7.0%, 2.6%, 1.1% and 0.9% in Grade Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively). Targeted biopsy was more likely to detect cancer in larger lesions (13.17 mm VS 11.41 mm, P=0.0056) and for higher PI-RADS scales (4.19 VS 3.68, P<0.0001). The cancers detected by targeted biopsy also had higher PSA levels (10.38 ng/ml VS 6.39 ng/ml, P=0.0026).

CONCLUSION

Targeted biopsy with systematic biopsy improved cancer detection rate compared to systematic biopsy alone. Targeted biopsy is not more sensitive for grade groups 1, 4, or 5 cancers but is as sensitive as systematic biopsy for detecting grade group 2 and 3 cancers. Targeted biopsy is more effective at detecting cancers when patients have larger lesions, higher PI-RADS scales, and higher PSA levels.

Catalyzing Precision Medicine: Artificial Intelligence Advancements in Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Management

BACKGROUND

The aim was to analyze the current state of deep learning (DL)-based prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis with a focus on magnetic resonance (MR) prostate reconstruction; PCa detection/stratification/reconstruction; positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT); androgen deprivation therapy (ADT); prostate biopsy; associated challenges and their clinical implications.

METHODS

A search of the PubMed database was conducted based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria for the use of DL methods within the abovementioned areas.

RESULTS

A total of 784 articles were found, of which, 64 were included. Reconstruction of the prostate, the detection and stratification of prostate cancer, the reconstruction of prostate cancer, and diagnosis on PET/CT, ADT, and biopsy were analyzed in 21, 22, 6, 7, 2, and 6 studies, respectively. Among studies describing DL use for MR-based purposes, datasets with magnetic field power of 3 T, 1.5 T, and 3/1.5 T were used in 18/19/5, 0/1/0, and 3/2/1 studies, respectively, of 6/7 studies analyzing DL for PET/CT diagnosis which used data from a single institution. Among the radiotracers, [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11, [18F]DCFPyl, and [18F]PSMA-1007 were used in 5, 1, and 1 study, respectively. Only two studies that analyzed DL in the context of DT met the inclusion criteria. Both were performed with a single-institution dataset with only manual labeling of training data. Three studies, each analyzing DL for prostate biopsy, were performed with single- and multi-institutional datasets. TeUS, TRUS, and MRI were used as input modalities in two, three, and one study, respectively.

CONCLUSION

DL models in prostate cancer diagnosis show promise but are not yet ready for clinical use due to variability in methods, labels, and evaluation criteria. Conducting additional research while acknowledging all the limitations outlined is crucial for reinforcing the utility and effectiveness of DL-based models in clinical settings.

Ex Vivo Fluorescence Confocal Microscopy of MRI-Guided Targeted Prostate Biopsies for Rapid Detection of Clinically Significant Carcinomas-A Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

MRI-guided prostate biopsies from visible tumor-specific lesions (TBx) can be used to diagnose clinically significant carcinomas (csPCa) requiring treatment more selectively than conventional systematic biopsies (SBx). Ex vivo fluorescence confocal microscopy (FCM) is a novel technique that can be used to examine TBx prior to conventional histologic workup.

METHODS

TBx from 150 patients were examined with FCM on the day of collection. Preliminary findings were reported within 2 h of collection. The results were statistically compared with the final histology.

RESULTS

27/40 (68%) of the csPCa were already recognized in the intraday FCM in accordance with the results of conventional histology. Even non-significant carcinomas (cisPCa) of the intermediate and high-risk groups (serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) > 10 or 20 ng/mL) according to conventional risk stratifications were reliably detectable. In contrast, small foci of cisPCa were often not detected or were difficult to distinguish from reactive changes.

CONCLUSION

The rapid reporting of preliminary FCM findings helps to reduce the psychological stress on patients, and can improve the clinical management of csPCa. Additional SBx can be avoided in individual cases, leading to lower rates of complications and scarring in the future surgical area. Additional staging examinations can be arranged without losing time. FCM represents a promising basis for future AI-based diagnostic algorithms.

Diffusion kurtosis imaging and standard diffusion imaging in the magnetic resonance imaging assessment of prostate cancer

Background and Objective

In recent years, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has shown excellent results in the study of the prostate gland. MRI has indeed shown to be advantageous in the prostate cancer (PCa) detection, as in guiding targeting biopsy, improving its diagnostic yield. Although current acquisition protocols provide for multiparametric acquisition, recent evidence has shown that biparametric protocols can be non-inferior in PCa detection. Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) sequence, in particular, plays a key role, particularly in the peripheral zone which accounts for the larger part of the prostate. High b-values are generally recommended, although with the possibility of obtaining non-Gaussian diffusion effects, which requires a more sophisticated model for the analysis, namely through the diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI). Purpose of this narrative review was to analyze the current applications and clinical evidence regarding the use of DKI with a main focus on PCa detection, also in comparison with DWI.

Methods

This narrative review synthesized the findings of literature retrieved from main researches, narrative and systematic reviews, and meta-analyses obtained from PubMed.

Key Content and Findings

DKI analyses the non-Gaussian water diffusivity and describe the effect of signal intensity decay related to high b-value through two main metrics (Dapp and Kapp). Differently from DWI-apparent diffusion coefficient (DWI-ADC) which reflects only water restriction outside of cells, DKI metrics are supposed to represent also the direct interaction of water molecules with cell membranes and intracellular compounds. This review describes current evidence on ADC and DKI metrics in clinical imaging, and finally collect the results derived from the main articles focused on DWI and DKI models in detecting PCa.

Conclusions

DKI advantages, compared to conventional ADC analysis, still remain controversial. Wider application and greater technical knowledge of DKI, however, may help in proving its intrinsic validity in the field of oncology and therefore in the study of clinically significant PCa. Finally, a deep understanding of DKI is important for radiologists to better understand what Kapp and Dapp mean in the context of different cancer and how these metrics may vary specifically in PCa imaging.

MRI-Guided Targeted and Systematic Prostate Biopsies as Prognostic Indicators for Prostate Cancer Treatment Decisions

The standard procedure for the diagnosis of prostate carcinoma involves the collection of 10-12 systematic biopsies (SBx) from both lobes. MRI-guided targeted biopsies (TBx) from suspicious foci increase the detection rates of clinically significant (cs) PCa. We investigated the extent to which the results of the TBx predicted the tumor board treatment decisions. SBx and TBx were acquired from 150 patients. Risk stratifications and recommendations for interventional therapy (prostatectomy and radiotherapy) or active surveillance were established by interdisciplinary tumor boards. We analyzed how often TBx alone were enough to correctly classify the tumors as well as to indicate interventional therapy and how often the findings of SBx were crucial for therapy decisions. A total of 28/39 (72%) favorable risk tumors were detected in TBx, of which 11/26 (42%) very-low-risk tumors were not detected and 8/13 (62%) low-risk tumors were undergraded. A total of 36/44 (82%) intermediate-risk PCa were present in TBx, of which 4 (9%) were underdiagnosed as a favorable risk tumor. A total of 12/13 (92%) high-risk carcinomas were detected and correctly grouped in TBx. The majority of csPCa were identified by the sampling of TBx alone. The tumor size was underestimated in a proportion of ISUP grade 1 tumors. Systematic biopsy sampling is therefore indicated for the next AS follow-up in these cases.

Intravoxel incoherent motion predicts positive surgical margins and Gleason score upgrading after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Whether Intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) can be used as a predictive tool of positive surgical margins (PSMs) and Gleason score (GS) upgrading in prostate cancer (PCa) patients after radical prostatectomy (RP) still remains unclear. The aim of this study is to explore the ability of IVIM and clinical characteristics to predict PSMs and GS upgrading.

METHODS

A total of 106 PCa patients after RP who underwent pelvic mpMRI (multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging) between January 2016 and December 2021 and met the requirements were retrospectively included in our study. IVIM parameters were obtained using GE Functool post-processing software. Logistic regression models were fitted to confirm the predictive risk factor of PSMs and GS upgrading. The area under the curve and fourfold contingency table were used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of IVIM and clinical parameters.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that percent of positive cores, apparent diffusion coefficient and molecular diffusion coefficient (D) were independent predictors of PSMs (Odds Ratio (OR) were 6.07, 3.62 and 3.16, respectively), Biopsy GS and pseudodiffusion coefficient (D*) were independent predictors of GS upgrading (OR were 0.563 and 7.15, respectively). The fourfold contingency table suggested that combined diagnosis increased the ability of predicting PSMs but had no advantage in predicting GS upgrading except the sensitivity from 57.14 to 91.43%.

CONCLUSIONS

IVIM showed good performance in predicting PSMs and GS upgrading. Combining IVIM and clinical factors enhanced the performance of predicting PSMs, which may contribute to clinical diagnosis and treatment.

The prognostic value of 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT in predicting pathological upgrading of newly diagnosed prostate cancer from systematic biopsy to radical prostatectomy

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate predictors for upgrading of newly diagnosed prostate cancer from systematic biopsy (SB) to radical prostatectomy (RP) using fluorine-18 prostate-specific membrane antigen 1007 (¹⁸F-PSMA-1007) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) and association with clinical parameters.

Materials and methods

We retrospectively collected data from biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT prior to RP from July 2019 and October 2022. Imaging characteristics derived from ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT and clinical parameters were compared in patients of pathological upgrading and concordance subgroups. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were performed to analyze factors predicting histopathological upgrading from SB to RP specimens. Discrimination ability of independent predictors was further evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with corresponding area under the curve (AUC).

Results

Pathological upgrading occurred in 26.97% (41/152) PCa patients, and 23.03% (35/152) of all patients experienced pathological downgrading. Concordance rate reached 50% (76/152). International Society of Urological Pathology grade group (ISUP GG) 1(77.78%) and ISUP GG 2 (65.22%) biopsies were related with the highest rate of upgrading. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that prostate volume (OR= 0.933; 95% CI, 0.887-0.982; p = 0.008), ISUP GG 1 vs. 4 (OR= 13.856; 95% CI: 2.467-77.831; p = 0.003), and total uptake of PSMA-avid lesions (PSMA-TL) (OR = 1.003; 95% CI, 1.000-1.006; p = 0.029) were found to be independent risk factors of pathological upgrading after RP. The AUCs and corresponding sensitivity and specificity of the independent predictors of synthesis for upgrading were 0.839, 78.00%, and 83.30% respectively, which showed good discrimination capacity.

Conclusion

¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT may help to predict pathological upgrading between biopsy and RP specimens, particularly for ISUP GG 1 and ISUP GG 2 patients with higher PSMA-TL and smaller prostate volume.

Adverse Pathology after Radical Prostatectomy of Patients Eligible for Active Surveillance-A Summary 7 Years after Introducing mpMRI-Guided Biopsy in a Real-World Setting

OBJECTIVE

Over the last decade, active surveillance (AS) of low-risk prostate cancer has been increasing. The mpMRI fusion-guided biopsy of the prostate (FBx) is considered to be the gold standard in preoperative risk stratification. However, the role of FBx remains unclear in terms of risk stratification of low-risk prostate cancer outside high-volume centers. The aim of this study was to evaluate adverse pathology after radical prostatectomy (RP) in a real-world setting, focusing on patients diagnosed with Gleason score (GS) 6 prostate cancer (PCa) and eligible for AS by FBx.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Between March 2015 and March 2022, 1297 patients underwent FBx at the Department of Urology, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Germany. MpMRI for FBx was performed by 111 different radiology centers. FBx was performed by 14 urologists from our department with different levels of experience. In total, 997/1297 (77%) patients were diagnosed with prostate cancer; 492/997 (49%) of these patients decided to undergo RP in our clinic and were retrospectively included. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate clinical and histopathological parameters associated with adverse pathology comparing FBx and RP specimens. To compare FBx and systematic randomized biopsies performed in our clinic before introducing FBx (SBx, n = 2309), we performed a propensity score matching on a 1:1 ratio, adjusting for age, number of positive biopsy cores, and initial PSA (iPSA).

RESULTS

A total of 492 patients undergoing FBx or SBx was matched. In total, 55% of patients diagnosed with GS 6 by FBx were upgraded to clinically significant PCa (defined as GS ≥ 7a) after RP, compared to 52% of patients diagnosed by SBx (p = 0.76). A time delay between FBx and RP was identified as the only correlate associated with upgrading. A total of 5.9% of all FBx patients and 6.1% of all SBx patients would have been eligible for AS (p > 0.99) but decided to undergo RP. The positive predictive value of AS eligibility (diagnosis of low-risk PCa after biopsy and after RP) was 17% for FBx and 6.7% for SBx (p = 0.39).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show, in a real-world setting, that introducing FBx did not lead to significant change in ratio of adverse pathology for low-risk PCa patients after RP compared to SBx.

Clinical Factors Associated With Pathological Grade Group 1 Patients in D'Amico Intermediate-Risk Group Following Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study in Japan (The MSUG94 Group)

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to examine the relationship between D'Amico intermediate-risk and pathological grade group 1 (pGG1) after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective multicenter cohort study, D'Amico intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy, and underwent RARP at 10 institutions in Japan were examined for preoperative factors associated with pGG1.

RESULTS

In total, we enrolled 1161 D'Amico intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients. The pGG1 and pGG ≥2 groups comprised 73 (6.3%), and 1088 (93.7%) cases, respectively. Biochemical recurrence-free survival (BCRFS) of the pGG1 group was equivalent to that of the D'Amico low-risk patients. Among the 3 D'Amico intermediate-risk factors (IRF), the pGG1-rate was 24% with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 10 to 20 ng/mL alone, and 30% with cT2b alone. Both groups had significantly higher pGG1-rates than other groups. Down-grading from biopsy GG ≥2 to pGG1 was relatively rare (3.9%). Patients with pGG1 were further stratified by prostate volume (PV) (cutoff, 40 cc) among patients with one IRF and PSA of 10 to 20 ng/mL. Patients with one IRF, PSA of 10 to 20 ng/mL, and PV >40 cc had a relatively good BCRFS similar to that of the D'Amico low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

Among intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients, those with pGG1 have a good prognosis. Downgrading from biopsy GG ≥2 is rare, and definitive treatment may be recommended for patients with biopsy GG ≥2. Patients with one IRF, PSA of 10 to 20 ng/mL, and PV >40 cc who are eligible for RARP may be candidates for active surveillance.

Clinical Predictors of Grade Group Upgrading for Radical Prostatectomy Specimens Compared to Those of Preoperative Needle Biopsy Specimens

BACKGROUND

Decision-making and selection of treatment modalities for newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) are often determined by risk stratification using grade group (GG), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and clinical stage. The discrepancies between needle biopsy (NB) and radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens often occur because of the sampling errors in NB or multifocal features of PCa. Thus, we aimed to estimate the preoperative clinical factors for predicting GG upgrading after robot-assisted RP (RARP).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we reviewed the clinical and pathological records of patients who underwent RARP at Gifu University Hospital. We focused on patients with organ-confined PCa who had not received neoadjuvant therapy prior to RARP. The primary endpoint was identified as the predictive factor of GG upgrading for RARP specimens compared to those of NB specimens.

RESULTS

Eighty-one patients were included in this study. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups: those who had GG upgrading for RARP specimens (the NB upgrade group) or those who did not have GG upgrading (the no upgrade group). The median age of all patients was 70 years, and the median body mass index (BMI) was 22.9 kg/m². The median neutrophil count was 3720/μL, lymphocyte count was 1543/μL, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was 2.24. In univariate analysis, BMI, PSA, neutrophil count, and NLR were significantly associated with GG upgrading in RARP specimens compared to NB specimens. BMI and NLR were identified as strong predictive factors for GG upgrading in RARP specimens in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study's small number of enrolled patients was a vital weakness, BMI and NLR might have been significantly correlated with GG upgrading for RP specimens compared with NB specimens. Therefore, BMI and NLR may have potential benefits for newly diagnosed patients with PCa in terms of decision-making and the selection of treatment modalities.

Magnetic resonance imaging target fusion biopsy vs. transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy - A comparative study of ISUP score upgrading risk in the final radical prostatectomy specimen

Objectives: The aim of this study was to com-pare the risk of International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) score upgrading between magnetic resonance imaging targeted fusion biopsy (MRI-TB) and tran-srectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUS-B) in the final radical prostatectomy (RP) specimen pathological report.Materials and methods: This retrospective single center study included 51 patients with prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosed with MRI-TB and 83 patients diagnosed with TRUS-B between October/2019 and July/2021. We compared the rates of ISUP score upgrading between both groups after robotic-assisted radi-cal prostatectomy (RARP) and the specific transition of each ISUP score based on biopsy modality. The rate of ISUP score concordance and downgrading were also assessed. To define the intra and interobserver concordance for each ISUP score in biopsy and RP specimen for each biopsy modality, the Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was calculated. ISUP scores and biopsy modal-ity were selected for multivariate analysis and a logistic regres-sion model was built to provide independent risk factors of ISUP score upgrading.Results: The difference of the rate of upgrading between MRI-TB group and TRUS-B group was statistically significant (p = 0.007) with 42.2% of patients of TRUS-B group experiencing an upgrade in their ISUP score while only 19.6% in MRI-TB group. Concordance and downgrading rates did not statistically differ between the two groups. Strength of concordance using Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was fair in both groups but higher in MRI-TB group (TRUS-B group k = 0.230; p < 0.001; concordance: 47%vs. MRI/TB group k = 0.438; p < 0.001; concordance: 62.7%). Biopsy modality and ISUP 1 on biopsy were independent predic-tors of ISUP upgrading after RP.Conclusions: MRI-TB is highly accurate with lower risk of PCa upgrading after RP than TRUS-B. Patients with ISUP 1 on biopsy have greater susceptibility to upgrading their ISUP score.

The impact of surgical downgrading on prostate cancer recurrence: systematic review and analysis of a multiethnic population

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review and a retrospective cohort analysis evaluating the rates of surgical downgrading of prostate cancer (PCa) from biopsy (PBx) to radical prostatectomy (RP), and their association with biochemical recurrence (BCR) in a multiethnic population.

METHODS

A systematic review of PubMed and other databases was performed. We included retrospective studies evaluating the relationship between surgical downgrading and BCR-free survival. Data regarding Gleason score (GL) downgrading were abstracted from the articles and categorized as follows: GL8-10 to GL7, GL7 to GL6, and GL 7(4 + 3) to GL7(3 + 4). We also performed a retrospective cohort review of patients who underwent RP at our institution from 2005 through 2020. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare BCR among downgraded versus non-downgraded men.

RESULTS

Systematic review yielded 137 abstracts; of these, 36 full-texts were reviewed, 8 of which were included in our systematic review. Despite substantial variability, all showed that GL at RP is one of the most important factors of BCR-free survival. A total of 1,484 men with PCa were analyzed from our institution. On multivariate analysis, GL7 to GL6 downgrading (HR = 0.50, p = 0.022) and GL8-10 to GL7 downgrading (HR = 0.42, p = 0.011) were associated with reduced risk of BCR when compared to men with GL7 and GL8-10 concordance, respectively. However, GL7(4 + 3) to GL7(3 + 4) downgrading was not significantly associated with reduced BCR (HR = 0.56, p = 0.12), when compared to GL7(4 + 3) concordance, although HR was similar.

CONCLUSION

Surgical downgrading at RP was associated with a reduced risk of BCR compared to GL concordant disease, and these findings have been validated within our multiethnic population. Pathologic downgrading at the time of RP may be a more useful predictor of subsequent BCR in comparison to that associated with GL concordant pathology.

Combined multiple clinical characteristics for prediction of discordance in grade and stage in prostate cancer patients undergoing systematic biopsy and radical prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to develop three nomograms by incorporating multiple clinical characteristics to identify those prostate cancer (PCa) patients with high probability of incorrect biopsy Gleason grade group (GG) before making treatment decisions.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data from PCa patients who underwent systematic biopsy and radical prostatectomy from January 2015 to December 2019 at Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were preformed to identify independent risk factors associated with upgrading, upstaging and downgrading. By incorporating selected clinical parameters with high predictive value, we constructed three nomograms to predict the probability of upgrading, upstaging and downgrading. Discrimination of nomograms was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with corresponding area under the curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves were performed to evaluate calibration and the clinical usefulness of nomograms. Performance of the three nomograms was validated in the testing dataset.

RESULTS

There were 585 PCa patients in total enrolled in this study who met the inclusion criteria. Of the 585 patients, the disease of 262 (44.8 %) was upgraded and 68 (11.6 %) was downgraded, and the disease of 67 (11.5 %) was upstaged. With regard to findings of multivariable analyses, patients' age and biopsy GG (GG 2, GG 3, GG 4 versus GG 1) were significantly associated with upgrading. Moreover, maximum diameter of the index lesion (D-max), clinical T stage (cT3a, cT3b versus cT1-2), number of positive cores and total tumor length were significantly associated with upstaging. Furthermore, d-max, %fPSA (> 0.16 versus ≤ 0.16) and biopsy GG (GG 3, GG 4, GG 5 versus GG 2) were independent predictors of downgrading. The three nomograms displayed good calibration in respective calibration plots. ROC analyses showed good discrimination with satisfactory AUC values and DCA plots demonstrated that the upgrading-risk nomogram, upstaging-risk nomogram and downgrading-risk nomogram were all clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

The upgrading-risk nomogram, upstaging-risk nomogram, and downgrading-risk nomogram were developed and correctly predicted the probability of incorrect Gleason grade group assigned to patients undergoing systematic biopsy.