Ratio of Preoperative and Postoperative Serum Bilirubin Levels Predicts Early Outcome Following Biliary Atresia Surgery

Combined Predictors of Long-Term Outcomes of Kasai Surgery in Infants with Biliary Atresia

Purpose

Biliary atresia (BA) is the leading cause of neonatal cholestasis (25-45%). The primary treatment is hepatic portoenterostomy (Kasai procedure), but only 20-40% provide long-term benefits. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for surgical efficacy by comparing preoperative and early postoperative indicators in infants with different outcomes.

Methods

We enrolled 166 infants with BA (93 girls, 73 boys) who underwent the Kasai procedure between September 2002 and December 2021, dividing them into favorable or adverse outcome groups. Over 40 parameters were measured, and the diagnostic significance of the prognostic model was evaluated.

Results

Kasai surgery was efficacious in 69 patients (42%) and non-efficacious in 97 (58%). Our model assesses efficacy by day 14 after surgery, improving on the <34 µmol/L direct bilirubin threshold established for 3-6 months after the procedure. Including the Desmet fibrosis score refined the model.

Conclusion

Blood cholesterol below 5.41 mmol/L, direct bilirubin below 56.3 µmol/L on postoperative days 14±3, and a low Desmet score indicate a high probability of efficacious Kasai surgery in infants with BA.

Comparison of Liver Transplant Outcomes in Biliary Atresia Patients, Considering Whether They Underwent the Kasai Procedure Beforehand: A Single Center Analysis of 72 Patients

BACKGROUND

This study examines the results of liver transplantation (LT) in patients with biliary atresia, considering whether they underwent the Kasai procedure beforehand. LT and determine postoperative and long-term graft outcomes.

METHODS

This single-center, retrospective study included 72 pediatric patients diagnosed with postpartum biliary atresia who underwent LT between 2010 and 2022. We included patients who underwent LT either after or without the Kasai procedure and compared the demographic data of the patients with various factors, such as the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease scores and laboratory values.

RESULTS

The study included 72 patients, with 39 of them being female (54.2%) and 33 of them being male (45.8%). Of the 72 patients in the study, 47 (65.3%) had undergone the Kasai procedure, and 25 (34.7%) had not. The preoperative and postoperative month 1 bilirubin values were lower in patients who underwent the Kasai procedure and were higher in postoperative months 3 and 6. Preoperative bilirubin values, postoperative month 3 bilirubin values, and preoperative albumin values were higher in patients who developed mortality (P < .05). Cold ischemia time was longer in patients who developed mortality (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed a higher mortality rate in patients who underwent the Kasai procedure. The results also showed that LT was more effective in children, as patients with Kasai had higher mean bilirubin values and higher preoperative albumin values than patients without Kasai.

Five-year native liver survival analysis in biliary atresia from a single large Chinese center: The death/liver transplantation hazard change and the importance of rapid early clearance of jaundice

PURPOSE

This study aimed to analyze the change of death/liver transplantation hazard and biochemical indexes over time after Kasai procedure (KP) based on a retrospective biliary atresia (BA) cohort, and to evaluate the predictive value of early jaundice clearance rate to 5-year native liver survival (NLS).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort with follow-up results of 139 BA patients from January 2009 to December 2012 was established, and the pre- and postoperative data were collected. NLS rates were estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves, and any differences between groups were tested by log-rank test. Hazard curve of death/liver transplantation was fitted with Weibull distribution, and hazards at certain time points were calculated. Trend charts of biochemical indexes were drawn to show any changes over time. Rate of jaundice clearance was indicated as the proportion of decreased total bilirubin level at a certain postoperative time point to preoperative total bilirubin level. In multivariate analysis for prediction of 5-year NLS, COX proportional hazard regression model was used and results were expressed as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The predictive value of early jaundice clearance rates for 5-year NLS was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and a cut-off value of 4-week jaundice clearance rate was determined.

RESULTS

The estimated 5-year NLS rate of the 139 patients was 58.0%. The patients had a high hazard of death/liver transplantation early after KP, which gradually decreased and stabilized at a lower level 1 year later. Most death/liver transplantation events occurred within 1 year after KP. The total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL) and total bile acid (TBA) levels of successful Kasai group decreased continuously after KP, and the biggest decline was seen in the first month. The aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) levels increased during the first month after KP and decreased continuously thereafter. All the biochemical indexes of successful Kasai group tended to stabilize within/close to normal range 1 year after KP. On the contrary, all the biochemical indexes of failed Kasai group fluctuated at obvious abnormal levels after KP. The estimated 5-year NLS rates of successful Kasai group and failed Kasai group were 90.1% and 10.7% (p = 0.000). The most significant clinical protective factor of 5-year NLS was 4-week jaundice clearance rate, revealed by COX proportional hazard regression model, and the HR was 0.089 (95%CI 0.018-0.432, p = 0.003). In predicting 5-year native liver survival, the largest area under ROC (AUROC) curve belonged to 4-week jaundice clearance rate, which was 0.731 (p = 0.000). A cut-off value of 0.457 was determined, with sensitivity 0.827, specificity 0.552, positive predictive value 0.720, and negative predictive value 0.696. NLS rates of patients divided by cut-off value showed significant statistical difference demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

The 5-year death/liver transplantation hazard of biliary atresia patients reduces greatly and stabilizes 1 year after KP. A successful KP enables patients to achieve long-term stable normal biochemical indexes. A rapid clearance of jaundice is of great positive significance to 5-year NLS, and the 4-week jaundice clearance rate is of some predictive value.

TYPE OF STUDY

Prognosis study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, retrospective study.