The CURB-65 scoring system in severity assessment of Eastern Nigerian patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective observational study

Validating a novel index (SWAT-Bp) to predict mortality risk of community-acquired pneumonia in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Early assessment and initiation of management improves outcomes. In higher-income countries, scores assist in predicting mortality from pneumonia. These have not been validated for use in most lower-income countries.

AIM

To validate a new score, the SWAT-Bp score, in predicting mortality risk of clinical community-acquired pneumonia amongst hospital admissions at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi.

METHODS

The five variables constituting the SWAT-Bp score (male [S]ex, muscle [W]asting, non-[A]mbulatory, [T]emperature (>38°C or <35°C) and [B]lood [p]ressure (systolic<100 and/or diastolic<60)) were recorded for all patients with clinical presentation of a lower respiratory tract infection, presumed to be pneumonia, over four months (N=216). The sensitivity and specificity of the score were calculated to determine accuracy of predicting mortality risk.

RESULTS

Median age was 35 years, HIV prevalence was 84.2% amongst known statuses, and mortality rate was 12.5%. Mortality for scores 0-5 was 0%, 8.5%, 12.7%, 19.0%, 28.6%, 100% respectively. Patients were stratified into three mortality risk groups dependent on their score. SWAT-Bp had moderate discriminatory power overall (AUROC 0.744). A SWAT-Bp score of ≥2 was 82% sensitive and 51% specific for predicting mortality, thereby assisting in identifying individuals with a lower mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

In this validation cohort, the SWAT-Bp score has not performed as well as in the derivation cohort. However, it could potentially assist clinicians identifying low-risk patients, enabling rapid prioritisation of treatment in a low-resource setting, as it helps contribute towards individual patient risk stratification.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality and length of stay in community-acquired pneumonia: a 5-year multi-centre case control study of adults in a developing country

BACKGROUND

We investigated predictors of in-hospital mortality and length of hospital stay among adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Nigeria in order to provide recommendations to improve CAP outcomes in developing countries.

METHODS

This was a multi-centre case control study of patients ≥18 years who were admitted with CAP between 2008 and 2012. Case notes of 100 consecutive patients who died (cases) and random sample of 300 patients discharged (controls) were selected.

RESULTS

Mean ages were 55.4±19.6 (cases) and 49.3±19.2 (controls). Independent predictors of mortality were CURB-65 score ≥3: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 24.3, late presentation: aOR 8.6, co-morbidity: aOR 3.9, delayed first dose antibiotics (>4 hours): aOR 3.5, need for supplemental oxygen: aOR 4.9, multilobar pneumonia: aOR 4.0, non-pneumococcal aetiology: aOR 6.5, anaemia: aOR 3.8 and hyperglycemia: aOR 8.6. CURB-65 ≥3 predicted mortality with a high specificity (96.1%) but low sensitivity (75%); positive predictive value of 88.2% and negative predictive value of 90.8%. Care in hospital A and B: aOR 3.3 and 2.2 respectively, male gender aOR 2.1, co-morbidity aOR 3.0, anaemia aOR 2.1 and elevated serum creatinine aOR 6.3 independently predicted length of hospital stay >10 days among survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Several modifiable patient-related and process-of-care factors predicted in-hospital mortality, and length of hospital stay among survivors. Our findings should be used to improve CAP outcomes in developing countries.

CURB-65 and other markers of illness severity in community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-positive patients

As the relative burden of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia among HIV-positive patients increases, adequate prediction of case severity on presentation is crucial. We sought to determine what characteristics measurable on presentation are predictive of worse outcomes. We studied all admissions for community-acquired bacterial pneumonia over one year at a tertiary centre. Patient demographics, comorbidities, HIV-specific markers and CURB-65 scores on Emergency Department presentation were reviewed. Outcomes of interest included mortality, bacteraemia, intensive care unit admission and orotracheal intubation. A total of 396 patients were included: 49 HIV-positive and 347 HIV-negative. Mean CURB-65 score was 1.3 for HIV-positive and 2.2 for HIV-negative patients (p < 0.0001), its predictive value for mortality being maintained in both groups (p = 0.03 and p < 0.001, respectively). Adjusting for CURB-65 scores, HIV infection by itself was only associated with bacteraemia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 7.1, 95% CI [2.6-19.5]). Patients with < 200 CD4 cells/µL presented similar CURB-65 adjusted mortality (aOR 1.7, 95% CI [0.2-15.2]), but higher risk of intensive care unit admission (aOR 5.7, 95% CI [1.5-22.0]) and orotracheal intubation (aOR 9.1, 95% CI [2.2-37.1]), compared to HIV-negative patients. These two associations were not observed in the > 200 CD4 cells/µL subgroup (aOR 2.2, 95% CI [0.7-7.6] and aOR 0.8, 95% CI [0.1-6.5], respectively). Antiretroviral therapy and viral load suppression were not associated with different outcomes (p > 0.05). High CURB-65 scores and CD4 counts < 200 cells/µL were both associated with worse outcomes. Severity assessment scales and CD4 counts may both be helpful in predicting severity in HIV-positive patients presenting with community-acquired bacterial pneumonia.

Studying the burden of community-acquired pneumonia in adults aged ≥50 years in primary health care: an observational study in rural Crete, Greece

Background:

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a potentially life-threatening condition that often requires hospitalisation particularly in the elderly population or in patients with comorbidities.

Aims:

The aims of this study were to estimate the CAP frequency and severity in a well-defined primary healthcare setting in rural Crete, to record patient characteristics, their immunisation status and to estimate hospitalisation frequency and determinants.

Methods:

An observational study was designed and implemented in a rural setting within the prefecture of Heraklion in the island of Crete, Greece. Eligible patients were those aged 50 years or above, presenting with CAP based on signs and symptoms and positive X-ray findings.

Results:

A total of 124 CAP cases were recorded, 40 of which (32.3%) were hospitalised. Τhe age-standardised CAP incidence was estimated to be 236.7 cases per 100,000 persons aged ⩾50 years. Forty-three patients (35.2%) were vaccinated against pneumococcus. The most frequent chronic illnesses were heart disease (64.5%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (32.5%), and type 2 diabetes (21%). Hospitalisation determinants included advanced age (⩾74 years, Odds ratio (OR) 7.13; P value=0.001; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.23–22.79), obesity (OR 3.36, P=0.037; 95% CI, 1.08–10.52), ⩾40 pack-years of smoking (OR 3.82, P value=0.040; 95% CI, 1.07–18.42), presence of multimorbidity (OR 5.77, P value=0.003; 95% CI, 1.81–18.42) and pneumococcal vaccination (OR 0.29, P value=0.041; 95% CI, 0.09–0.95).

Conclusions:

This study highlighted patient characteristics and aspects of CAP epidemiology in the context of a rural primary care setting in southern Europe where limited data have been published until now.