Nomogram for predicting breast conservation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Risk scoring system for predicting breast conservation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

We developed a risk scoring system (RSS) for predicting breast conservative surgery (BCS) in women receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NAC) for breast cancer. BCS rate in the training set was 32.6%, associated with five variables: age < 50years, primary radiological tumor diameter < 60mm, absence of multifocality, absence of breast inflammation and hormone receptor status. These variables were assigned scores ranging from 0 to 9. The discrimination of the RSS was 0.78(95%CI 0.69-0.86) in the training set. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics for predicting BCS after internal and external validation was 0.77(95%CI 0.68-0.85) and 0.75(95%CI 0.66-0.84), respectively.

Score for the Survival Probability in Metastasis Breast Cancer: A Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment Model

PURPOSE

Survival of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patient remains unknown and varies greatly from person to person. Thus, we aimed to construct a nomogram to quantify the survival probability of patients with MBC.

Materials and Methods

We had included 793 MBC patients and calculated trends of case fatality rate by Kaplan-Meier method and joinpoint regression. Six hundred thirty-four patients with MBC between January 2004 and July 2011 and 159 patients with MBC between August 2011 and July 2013 were assigned to training cohort and internal validation cohort, respectively. We constructed the nomogram based on the results of univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses in the training cohort and validated the nomogram in the validation cohort. Concordance index and calibration curves were used to assess the effectiveness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Case fatality rate of MBC was increasing (annual percentage change [APC], 21.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 46.3; p < 0.05) in the first 18 months and then decreased (APC, ‒4.5; 95% CI, ‒8.2 to ‒0.7; p < 0.05). Metastasis-free interval, age, metastasis location, and hormone receptor status were independent prognostic factors and were included in the nomogram, which had a concordance index of 0.69 in the training cohort and 0.67 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good consistency between the two cohorts at 1 and 3 years.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the fatality risk of MBC was increasing and reached the summit between 13th and 18th month afterthe detection of MBC. We have developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year survival probability in MBC.

[Predictive factors of conservative breast surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer]

OBJECTIVES

The aim of our study was to evaluate the existence of predictive factors of conservative breast surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for breast cancer.

METHODS

We included all women with invasive breast cancer who received NAC and underwent breast surgery between January 2007 and December 2013 in our institution. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to determine the association between clinical and histological factors and conservative breast surgery.

RESULTS

During the study period, 229 women were included of whom 73 had breast conservative surgery (32%). At univariable analysis, significant predictive factors were age (OR 0.97 [CI 95% 0.95-0.99], P=0.02), radiological size (OR 0.97 [CI 95% 0.96-0.99], P<0.001), multifocality (OR 0.53 [CI 95% 0.27-1.05], P=0.06), breast inflammation (OR 0.15 [CI 95% 0.07-0.32], P<0.001) and the type of hormone receptors (P=0.12). In multivariable analysis, all these factors but age were significant factors and thus considered as independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSION

This work permitted to identify independent predictive factors of breast conservative surgery after NAC for breast cancer that will be included in a risk scoring system that we aim to evaluate prospectively.

External validation of a published nomogram for prediction of brain metastasis in patients with extra-cerebral metastatic breast cancer and risk regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) suffering from brain metastasis (BM) is limited and this event is usually fatal. In 2010, the Graesslin's nomogram was published in order to predict subsequent BM in patients with breast cancer (BC) with extra-cerebral metastatic disease. This model aims to select a patient population at high risk for BM and thus will facilitate the design of prevention strategies and/or the impact of early treatment of BM in prospective clinical studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Nomogram external validation was retrospectively applied to patients with BC and later BM between January 2005 and December 2012, treated in our institution. Moreover, risk factors of BM appearance were studied by Fine and Gray's competing risk analysis.

RESULTS

Among 492 patients with MBC, 116 developed subsequent BM. Seventy of them were included for the nomogram validation. The discrimination is good (area under curve = 0.695 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77]). Risk factors of BM appearance are: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) overexpression/amplification, triple-negative BC and number of extra-cerebral metastatic sites (>1). With a competing risk model, we highlight the nomogram interest for HER2+ tumour subgroup exclusively.

CONCLUSION

Graesslin's nomogram external validation demonstrates exportability and reproducibility. Importantly, the competing risk model analysis provides additional information for the design of prospective trials concerning the early diagnosis of BM and/or preventive treatment on high risk patients with extra-cerebral metastatic BC.